Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Jul 11, 2025 00:30
Current Round:: Round 18
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	D	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Raiders	18.5	5.5	0.0	43.0	612.3	488.3	124.1	91%	99%	100%	55%	0%	0%
2	Storm	17.6	6.4	0.0	41.2	712.0	478.5	233.5	81%	98%	100%	37%	0%	0%
3	Bulldogs	16.0	8.0	0.0	37.9	551.6	453.0	98.6	18%	80%	99%	5%	0%	0%
4	Warriors	15.6	8.4	0.0	37.1	500.4	473.4	27.0	7%	66%	98%	1%	0%	0%
5	Panthers	13.2	9.8	1.0	33.3	508.3	479.7	28.6	0%	17%	88%	0%	0%	0%
6	Broncos	13.4	10.6	0.0	32.8	594.8	520.9	73.8	0%	13%	87%	0%	0%	0%
7	Dolphins	13.2	10.8	0.0	32.4	675.0	495.9	179.1	0%	15%	84%	0%	0%	0%
8	Sharks	12.8	11.2	0.0	31.7	528.0	518.8	9.2	0%	4%	61%	0%	0%	0%
9	Roosters	11.7	12.4	0.0	29.3	569.7	553.1	16.7	0%	1%	35%	0%	0%	0%
10	Sea Eagles	11.6	12.4	0.0	29.3	555.2	502.6	52.7	0%	2%	37%	0%	0%	0%
11	Cowboys	9.5	13.5	1.0	26.0	477.1	625.1	-148.0	0%	0%	5%	0%	0%	1%
12	Dragons	9.2	14.8	0.0	24.5	499.2	567.0	-67.8	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	1%
13	Knights	8.7	15.3	0.0	23.4	355.6	441.7	-86.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%
14	Wests Tigers	8.7	15.3	0.0	23.3	450.2	552.3	-102.1	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	6%
15	Rabbitohs	8.4	15.6	0.0	22.8	407.3	553.1	-145.8	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	13%
16	Eels	8.1	15.9	0.0	22.1	430.6	556.0	-125.4	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	13%
17	Titans	6.9	17.1	0.0	19.8	456.8	624.8	-168.0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	61%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Raiders (1st) vs Warriors (4th)

Home: Raiders

Raiders: 0% to win championship
Warriors: 0% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Storm (2nd) vs Bulldogs (3rd)

Home: Storm

Storm: 0% to win championship
Bulldogs: 0% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Panthers (5th) vs Sharks (8th)

Home: Panthers

Panthers: 0% to win championship
Sharks: 0% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Broncos (6th) vs Dolphins (7th)

Home: Broncos

Broncos: 0% to win championship
Dolphins: 0% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Warriors vs Panthers

Home: Warriors

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Bulldogs vs Dolphins

Home: Bulldogs

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Raiders vs Dolphins

Home: Raiders

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Storm vs Panthers

Home: Storm

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Raiders vs Storm

0% to win 0% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

No position distribution data available for this simulation.

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Eels	Home	80%	Easy
21	Knights	Home	77%	Easy
22	Dragons	Away	65%	Moderate
23	Sea Eagles	Home	66%	Moderate
25	Panthers	Away	37%	Very Hard
26	Wests Tigers	Home	84%	Easy
27	Dolphins	Away	35%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Knights	Away	78%	Easy
20	Sea Eagles	Home	80%	Easy
21	Roosters	Away	62%	Moderate
22	Eels	Away	81%	Easy
23	Broncos	Home	78%	Easy
24	Panthers	Away	55%	Hard
25	Bulldogs	Home	77%	Easy
26	Roosters	Home	76%	Easy
27	Broncos	Away	66%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Cowboys	Away	58%	Hard
20	Dragons	Home	74%	Easy
21	Sea Eagles	Home	61%	Moderate
22	Wests Tigers	Away	69%	Moderate
23	Warriors	Home	60%	Moderate
24	Roosters	Away	39%	Very Hard
25	Storm	Away	22%	Very Hard
26	Panthers	Home	48%	Hard
27	Sharks	Home	60%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Wests Tigers	Home	79%	Easy
20	Knights	Away	56%	Hard
21	Titans	Home	80%	Easy
22	Dolphins	Home	43%	Hard
23	Bulldogs	Away	39%	Very Hard
24	Dragons	Home	72%	Easy
25	Titans	Away	68%	Moderate
26	Eels	Home	74%	Easy
27	Sea Eagles	Away	42%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Eels	Away	71%	Easy
20	Rabbitohs	Home	85%	Easy
21	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
22	Titans	Away	78%	Easy
23	Knights	Away	68%	Moderate
24	Storm	Home	44%	Hard
25	Raiders	Home	62%	Moderate
26	Bulldogs	Away	51%	Hard
27	Dragons	Away	69%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Titans	Away	69%	Moderate
21	Eels	Home	75%	Easy
22	Rabbitohs	Home	79%	Easy
23	Storm	Away	21%	Very Hard
24	Dolphins	Home	44%	Hard
25	Knights	Away	57%	Hard
26	Cowboys	Away	57%	Hard
27	Storm	Home	33%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Sharks	Away	56%	Hard
20	Cowboys	Home	81%	Easy
22	Warriors	Away	56%	Hard
23	Roosters	Home	66%	Moderate
24	Broncos	Away	55%	Hard
25	Sea Eagles	Away	56%	Hard
26	Titans	Home	85%	Easy
27	Raiders	Home	64%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Dolphins	Home	43%	Hard
20	Roosters	Home	53%	Hard
21	Rabbitohs	Away	65%	Moderate
22	Cowboys	Home	71%	Easy
23	Dragons	Away	58%	Hard
24	Titans	Home	80%	Easy
26	Knights	Home	71%	Easy
27	Bulldogs	Away	39%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Dragons	Away	63%	Moderate
20	Sharks	Away	46%	Hard
21	Storm	Home	37%	Very Hard
22	Sea Eagles	Away	47%	Hard
23	Dolphins	Away	33%	Very Hard
24	Bulldogs	Home	60%	Moderate
25	Eels	Away	65%	Moderate
26	Storm	Away	23%	Very Hard
27	Rabbitohs	Home	81%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Storm	Away	19%	Very Hard
21	Bulldogs	Away	38%	Very Hard
22	Roosters	Home	52%	Hard
23	Raiders	Away	33%	Very Hard
24	Wests Tigers	Away	66%	Moderate
25	Dolphins	Home	43%	Hard
26	Dragons	Away	57%	Hard
27	Warriors	Home	57%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Bulldogs	Home	41%	Hard
20	Dolphins	Away	18%	Very Hard
21	Dragons	Home	60%	Moderate
22	Sharks	Away	28%	Very Hard
23	Eels	Away	46%	Hard
24	Knights	Home	58%	Hard
25	Wests Tigers	Away	53%	Hard
26	Broncos	Home	42%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Roosters	Home	36%	Very Hard
20	Bulldogs	Away	25%	Very Hard
21	Cowboys	Away	39%	Very Hard
22	Raiders	Home	34%	Very Hard
23	Sharks	Home	41%	Hard
24	Warriors	Away	27%	Very Hard
25	Rabbitohs	Away	49%	Hard
26	Sea Eagles	Home	42%	Hard
27	Panthers	Home	30%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Storm	Home	21%	Very Hard
20	Warriors	Home	43%	Hard
21	Raiders	Away	22%	Very Hard
23	Panthers	Home	31%	Very Hard
24	Cowboys	Away	41%	Hard
25	Broncos	Home	42%	Hard
26	Sharks	Away	28%	Very Hard
27	Eels	Away	45%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Warriors	Away	20%	Very Hard
20	Titans	Home	60%	Moderate
21	Panthers	Away	15%	Very Hard
22	Bulldogs	Home	30%	Very Hard
24	Sea Eagles	Home	33%	Very Hard
25	Cowboys	Home	46%	Hard
26	Raiders	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Titans	Away	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Panthers	Away	15%	Very Hard
21	Sharks	Home	34%	Very Hard
22	Broncos	Away	20%	Very Hard
23	Titans	Away	45%	Hard
24	Eels	Home	53%	Hard
25	Dragons	Home	50%	Hard
27	Roosters	Away	18%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Panthers	Home	28%	Very Hard
20	Raiders	Away	19%	Very Hard
21	Broncos	Away	24%	Very Hard
22	Storm	Home	18%	Very Hard
23	Cowboys	Home	53%	Hard
24	Rabbitohs	Away	46%	Hard
25	Roosters	Home	34%	Very Hard
26	Warriors	Away	25%	Very Hard
27	Knights	Home	54%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Broncos	Home	30%	Very Hard
20	Wests Tigers	Away	39%	Very Hard
21	Warriors	Away	19%	Very Hard
22	Panthers	Home	21%	Very Hard
23	Rabbitohs	Home	54%	Hard
24	Sharks	Away	19%	Very Hard
25	Warriors	Home	31%	Very Hard
26	Dolphins	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Wests Tigers	Home	56%	Hard

Round 27 Predictions (71 total matches across 9 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Broncos	1539	Storm	1711	33%
Sea Eagles	1525	Warriors	1529	57%
Roosters	1566	Rabbitohs	1364	81%
Dragons	1415	Panthers	1616	30%
Titans	1336	Wests Tigers	1349	56%
Bulldogs	1548	Sharks	1530	60%
Dolphins	1631	Raiders	1585	64%
Eels	1398	Knights	1426	54%

Round 9 of 9 (8 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Finals Bracket Preview

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Week 2 - Semi Finals

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

Week 4 - Grand Final

Most Likely Grand Final

All Championship Contenders

Ladder Position Distribution

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Raiders 7 games remaining Expected: 4.5 wins 64% win rate

Storm 9 games remaining Expected: 6.6 wins 73% win rate

Bulldogs 9 games remaining Expected: 5.0 wins 55% win rate

Warriors 9 games remaining Expected: 5.6 wins 62% win rate

Panthers 9 games remaining Expected: 6.2 wins 69% win rate

Broncos 8 games remaining Expected: 4.4 wins 55% win rate

Dolphins 8 games remaining Expected: 5.2 wins 65% win rate

Sharks 8 games remaining Expected: 4.8 wins 60% win rate

Roosters 9 games remaining Expected: 4.6 wins 51% win rate

Sea Eagles 8 games remaining Expected: 3.7 wins 46% win rate

Cowboys 8 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 44% win rate

Dragons 9 games remaining Expected: 3.3 wins 36% win rate

Knights 8 games remaining Expected: 2.8 wins 35% win rate

Wests Tigers 8 games remaining Expected: 2.7 wins 33% win rate

Rabbitohs 7 games remaining Expected: 2.4 wins 34% win rate

Eels 9 games remaining Expected: 3.1 wins 34% win rate

Titans 9 games remaining Expected: 2.9 wins 32% win rate

Round 27 Predictions (71 total matches across 9 rounds)