Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Jul 11, 2025 00:30
Current Round:: Round 18
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes and final ladder positions:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The percentages show how often each team achieved that position across all simulations. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	D	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🥄 %
1	Raiders	18.5	5.5	0.0	43.0	612.3	488.3	124.1	91%	99%	100%	55%	0%
2	Storm	17.6	6.4	0.0	41.2	712.0	478.5	233.5	81%	98%	100%	37%	0%
3	Bulldogs	16.0	8.0	0.0	37.9	551.6	453.0	98.6	18%	80%	99%	5%	0%
4	Warriors	15.6	8.4	0.0	37.1	500.4	473.4	27.0	7%	66%	98%	1%	0%
5	Panthers	13.2	9.8	1.0	33.3	508.3	479.7	28.6	0%	17%	88%	0%	0%
6	Broncos	13.4	10.6	0.0	32.8	594.8	520.9	73.8	0%	13%	87%	0%	0%
7	Dolphins	13.2	10.8	0.0	32.4	675.0	495.9	179.1	0%	15%	84%	0%	0%
8	Sharks	12.8	11.2	0.0	31.7	528.0	518.8	9.2	0%	4%	61%	0%	0%
9	Roosters	11.7	12.4	0.0	29.3	569.7	553.1	16.7	0%	1%	35%	0%	0%
10	Sea Eagles	11.6	12.4	0.0	29.3	555.2	502.6	52.7	0%	2%	37%	0%	0%
11	Cowboys	9.5	13.5	1.0	26.0	477.1	625.1	-148.0	0%	0%	5%	0%	1%
12	Dragons	9.2	14.8	0.0	24.5	499.2	567.0	-67.8	0%	0%	1%	0%	1%
13	Knights	8.7	15.3	0.0	23.4	355.6	441.7	-86.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%
14	Wests Tigers	8.7	15.3	0.0	23.3	450.2	552.3	-102.1	0%	0%	0%	0%	6%
15	Rabbitohs	8.4	15.6	0.0	22.8	407.3	553.1	-145.8	0%	0%	0%	0%	13%
16	Eels	8.1	15.9	0.0	22.1	430.6	556.0	-125.4	0%	0%	0%	0%	13%
17	Titans	6.9	17.1	0.0	19.8	456.8	624.8	-168.0	0%	0%	0%	0%	61%

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Eels	Home	80%	Easy
21	Knights	Home	77%	Easy
22	Dragons	Away	65%	Moderate
23	Sea Eagles	Home	66%	Moderate
25	Panthers	Away	37%	Very Hard
26	Wests Tigers	Home	84%	Easy
27	Dolphins	Away	35%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Knights	Away	78%	Easy
20	Sea Eagles	Home	80%	Easy
21	Roosters	Away	62%	Moderate
22	Eels	Away	81%	Easy
23	Broncos	Home	78%	Easy
24	Panthers	Away	55%	Hard
25	Bulldogs	Home	77%	Easy
26	Roosters	Home	76%	Easy
27	Broncos	Away	66%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Cowboys	Away	58%	Hard
20	Dragons	Home	74%	Easy
21	Sea Eagles	Home	61%	Moderate
22	Wests Tigers	Away	69%	Moderate
23	Warriors	Home	60%	Moderate
24	Roosters	Away	39%	Very Hard
25	Storm	Away	22%	Very Hard
26	Panthers	Home	48%	Hard
27	Sharks	Home	60%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Wests Tigers	Home	79%	Easy
20	Knights	Away	56%	Hard
21	Titans	Home	80%	Easy
22	Dolphins	Home	43%	Hard
23	Bulldogs	Away	39%	Very Hard
24	Dragons	Home	72%	Easy
25	Titans	Away	68%	Moderate
26	Eels	Home	74%	Easy
27	Sea Eagles	Away	42%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Eels	Away	71%	Easy
20	Rabbitohs	Home	85%	Easy
21	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
22	Titans	Away	78%	Easy
23	Knights	Away	68%	Moderate
24	Storm	Home	44%	Hard
25	Raiders	Home	62%	Moderate
26	Bulldogs	Away	51%	Hard
27	Dragons	Away	69%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Titans	Away	69%	Moderate
21	Eels	Home	75%	Easy
22	Rabbitohs	Home	79%	Easy
23	Storm	Away	21%	Very Hard
24	Dolphins	Home	44%	Hard
25	Knights	Away	57%	Hard
26	Cowboys	Away	57%	Hard
27	Storm	Home	33%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Sharks	Away	56%	Hard
20	Cowboys	Home	81%	Easy
22	Warriors	Away	56%	Hard
23	Roosters	Home	66%	Moderate
24	Broncos	Away	55%	Hard
25	Sea Eagles	Away	56%	Hard
26	Titans	Home	85%	Easy
27	Raiders	Home	64%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Dolphins	Home	43%	Hard
20	Roosters	Home	53%	Hard
21	Rabbitohs	Away	65%	Moderate
22	Cowboys	Home	71%	Easy
23	Dragons	Away	58%	Hard
24	Titans	Home	80%	Easy
26	Knights	Home	71%	Easy
27	Bulldogs	Away	39%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Dragons	Away	63%	Moderate
20	Sharks	Away	46%	Hard
21	Storm	Home	37%	Very Hard
22	Sea Eagles	Away	47%	Hard
23	Dolphins	Away	33%	Very Hard
24	Bulldogs	Home	60%	Moderate
25	Eels	Away	65%	Moderate
26	Storm	Away	23%	Very Hard
27	Rabbitohs	Home	81%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Storm	Away	19%	Very Hard
21	Bulldogs	Away	38%	Very Hard
22	Roosters	Home	52%	Hard
23	Raiders	Away	33%	Very Hard
24	Wests Tigers	Away	66%	Moderate
25	Dolphins	Home	43%	Hard
26	Dragons	Away	57%	Hard
27	Warriors	Home	57%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Bulldogs	Home	41%	Hard
20	Dolphins	Away	18%	Very Hard
21	Dragons	Home	60%	Moderate
22	Sharks	Away	28%	Very Hard
23	Eels	Away	46%	Hard
24	Knights	Home	58%	Hard
25	Wests Tigers	Away	53%	Hard
26	Broncos	Home	42%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Roosters	Home	36%	Very Hard
20	Bulldogs	Away	25%	Very Hard
21	Cowboys	Away	39%	Very Hard
22	Raiders	Home	34%	Very Hard
23	Sharks	Home	41%	Hard
24	Warriors	Away	27%	Very Hard
25	Rabbitohs	Away	49%	Hard
26	Sea Eagles	Home	42%	Hard
27	Panthers	Home	30%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Storm	Home	21%	Very Hard
20	Warriors	Home	43%	Hard
21	Raiders	Away	22%	Very Hard
23	Panthers	Home	31%	Very Hard
24	Cowboys	Away	41%	Hard
25	Broncos	Home	42%	Hard
26	Sharks	Away	28%	Very Hard
27	Eels	Away	45%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Warriors	Away	20%	Very Hard
20	Titans	Home	60%	Moderate
21	Panthers	Away	15%	Very Hard
22	Bulldogs	Home	30%	Very Hard
24	Sea Eagles	Home	33%	Very Hard
25	Cowboys	Home	46%	Hard
26	Raiders	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Titans	Away	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Panthers	Away	15%	Very Hard
21	Sharks	Home	34%	Very Hard
22	Broncos	Away	20%	Very Hard
23	Titans	Away	45%	Hard
24	Eels	Home	53%	Hard
25	Dragons	Home	50%	Hard
27	Roosters	Away	18%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Panthers	Home	28%	Very Hard
20	Raiders	Away	19%	Very Hard
21	Broncos	Away	24%	Very Hard
22	Storm	Home	18%	Very Hard
23	Cowboys	Home	53%	Hard
24	Rabbitohs	Away	46%	Hard
25	Roosters	Home	34%	Very Hard
26	Warriors	Away	25%	Very Hard
27	Knights	Home	54%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Broncos	Home	30%	Very Hard
20	Wests Tigers	Away	39%	Very Hard
21	Warriors	Away	19%	Very Hard
22	Panthers	Home	21%	Very Hard
23	Rabbitohs	Home	54%	Hard
24	Sharks	Away	19%	Very Hard
25	Warriors	Home	31%	Very Hard
26	Dolphins	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Wests Tigers	Home	56%	Hard

Round 19 Predictions (71 total matches across 9 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Sharks	1530	Dolphins	1631	43%
Knights	1426	Storm	1711	21%
Dragons	1415	Roosters	1566	36%
Cowboys	1431	Bulldogs	1548	41%
Warriors	1529	Wests Tigers	1349	79%
Eels	1398	Panthers	1616	28%
Titans	1336	Broncos	1539	30%

Round 1 of 9 (7 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Raiders 7 games remaining Expected: 4.5 wins 64% win rate

Storm 9 games remaining Expected: 6.6 wins 73% win rate

Bulldogs 9 games remaining Expected: 5.0 wins 55% win rate

Warriors 9 games remaining Expected: 5.6 wins 62% win rate

Panthers 9 games remaining Expected: 6.2 wins 69% win rate

Broncos 8 games remaining Expected: 4.4 wins 55% win rate

Dolphins 8 games remaining Expected: 5.2 wins 65% win rate

Sharks 8 games remaining Expected: 4.8 wins 60% win rate

Roosters 9 games remaining Expected: 4.6 wins 51% win rate

Sea Eagles 8 games remaining Expected: 3.7 wins 46% win rate

Cowboys 8 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 44% win rate

Dragons 9 games remaining Expected: 3.3 wins 36% win rate

Knights 8 games remaining Expected: 2.8 wins 35% win rate

Wests Tigers 8 games remaining Expected: 2.7 wins 33% win rate

Rabbitohs 7 games remaining Expected: 2.4 wins 34% win rate

Eels 9 games remaining Expected: 3.1 wins 34% win rate

Titans 9 games remaining Expected: 2.9 wins 32% win rate

Round 19 Predictions (71 total matches across 9 rounds)