Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Premiership
Season:: 2026
Run Date:: Mar 18, 2026 09:00
Current Round:: Round 1
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Panthers	17.9	6.1	43.9	322.7	232.7	90.0	47%	37%	0%
2	Storm	16.8	7.2	41.6	315.6	242.1	73.5	27%	28%	0%
3	Sharks	15.2	8.8	38.4	297.7	247.8	49.9	9%	10%	0%
4	Roosters	14.9	9.1	37.8	313.4	269.3	44.1	7%	11%	0%
5	Cowboys	13.5	10.5	35.0	385.4	365.7	19.7	2%	3%	0%
6	Sea Eagles	13.1	10.9	34.2	299.2	281.9	17.3	1%	2%	0%
7	Knights	13.0	11.0	34.0	509.0	492.2	16.7	1%	2%	0%
8	Bulldogs	12.7	11.3	33.3	361.1	358.3	2.8	1%	1%	0%
9	Dolphins	11.4	12.6	30.8	260.6	270.7	-10.1	0%	0%	1%
10	Warriors	10.6	13.4	29.2	265.8	286.8	-21.0	0%	0%	4%
11	Broncos	10.5	13.5	29.0	262.7	285.4	-22.7	0%	0%	4%
12	Eels	9.9	14.1	27.7	255.5	287.6	-32.1	0%	0%	6%
13	Raiders	9.6	14.4	27.3	261.0	296.9	-35.9	0%	0%	7%
14	Dragons	9.5	14.5	27.1	343.5	375.2	-31.7	0%	0%	9%
15	Rabbitohs	9.2	14.8	26.5	251.4	293.1	-41.8	0%	0%	12%
16	Titans	9.0	15.0	26.1	253.2	298.6	-45.4	0%	0%	12%
17	Wests Tigers	7.1	16.9	22.2	232.5	305.9	-73.4	0%	0%	40%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Panthers (1st) vs Roosters (4th)

Home: Panthers

Panthers: 37% to win championship
Roosters: 11% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Storm (2nd) vs Sharks (3rd)

Home: Storm

Storm: 28% to win championship
Sharks: 10% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Cowboys (5th) vs Bulldogs (8th)

Home: Cowboys

Cowboys: 3% to win championship
Bulldogs: 1% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Sea Eagles (6th) vs Knights (7th)

Home: Sea Eagles

Sea Eagles: 2% to win championship
Knights: 2% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Roosters vs Cowboys

Home: Roosters

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Sharks vs Sea Eagles

Home: Sharks

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Panthers vs Sharks

Home: Panthers

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Storm vs Roosters

Home: Storm

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Panthers vs Storm

37% to win 28% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

Panthers 37%

Storm 28%

Sharks 10%

Roosters 11%

Cowboys 3%

Sea Eagles 2%

Knights 2%

Bulldogs 1%

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	13th	14th	15th	16th	17th
Panthers	47%	26%	10%	6%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	-	-	-	0%	-	-
Storm	27%	26%	16%	11%	6%	4%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	-	-	0%	-	-
Sharks	9%	14%	19%	16%	10%	9%	7%	4%	3%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	-
Roosters	7%	13%	14%	15%	12%	9%	7%	6%	4%	2%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	-	-
Cowboys	2%	6%	8%	11%	11%	12%	9%	9%	7%	6%	3%	3%	3%	1%	1%	0%	0%
Sea Eagles	1%	4%	8%	9%	12%	10%	10%	9%	8%	6%	5%	5%	3%	1%	1%	0%	0%
Knights	1%	2%	7%	10%	12%	10%	10%	11%	9%	6%	6%	3%	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%
Bulldogs	1%	2%	5%	7%	9%	11%	9%	11%	8%	8%	6%	6%	3%	4%	2%	1%	0%
Dolphins	0%	0%	2%	3%	5%	7%	9%	8%	9%	9%	8%	8%	8%	6%	5%	4%	1%
Warriors	0%	0%	1%	2%	3%	4%	5%	7%	7%	9%	10%	10%	10%	8%	6%	6%	4%
Broncos	0%	0%	2%	1%	3%	4%	6%	8%	7%	9%	9%	9%	7%	10%	8%	6%	4%
Eels	-	0%	0%	1%	1%	3%	5%	4%	7%	9%	8%	9%	10%	12%	11%	9%	6%
Raiders	-	0%	0%	1%	1%	3%	4%	4%	7%	7%	10%	8%	10%	10%	12%	12%	7%
Dragons	-	0%	0%	0%	1%	2%	3%	5%	5%	7%	9%	8%	10%	10%	11%	12%	9%
Rabbitohs	-	0%	0%	1%	1%	1%	2%	4%	6%	6%	8%	8%	10%	9%	11%	13%	12%
Titans	-	0%	0%	0%	1%	2%	3%	3%	4%	6%	7%	9%	9%	12%	12%	14%	12%
Wests Tigers	-	-	0%	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	2%	2%	5%	6%	7%	14%	16%	40%

Reading the table: Each row shows the probability of that team finishing in each position. For example, if a team has 25% in the "1st" column, they finished first in 25% of the 1000 simulated seasons. Each row should sum to approximately 100%.

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Broncos	Away	72%	Easy
2	Sharks	Home	72%	Easy
3	Roosters	Away	54%	Hard
4	Eels	Home	85%	Easy
5	Storm	Home	63%	Moderate
6	Bulldogs	Away	68%	Moderate
7	Dolphins	Away	71%	Easy
8	Knights	Away	69%	Moderate
9	Sea Eagles	Home	77%	Easy
10	Raiders	Away	76%	Easy
11	Dragons	Home	85%	Easy
13	Warriors	Home	85%	Easy
14	Wests Tigers	Away	85%	Easy
16	Titans	Away	79%	Easy
17	Cowboys	Away	62%	Moderate
18	Rabbitohs	Home	85%	Easy
20	Broncos	Home	83%	Easy
21	Eels	Away	76%	Easy
22	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
23	Warriors	Away	75%	Easy
24	Roosters	Home	69%	Moderate
25	Storm	Away	47%	Hard
26	Bulldogs	Home	80%	Easy
27	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Eels	Home	83%	Easy
2	Dragons	Away	73%	Easy
3	Broncos	Home	80%	Easy
4	Cowboys	Away	57%	Hard
5	Panthers	Away	36%	Very Hard
6	Warriors	Home	82%	Easy
7	Raiders	Away	72%	Easy
8	Rabbitohs	Home	84%	Easy
9	Dolphins	Away	66%	Moderate
10	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
11	Eels	Away	72%	Easy
12	Bulldogs	Away	64%	Moderate
13	Roosters	Home	65%	Moderate
14	Knights	Home	77%	Easy
16	Raiders	Home	83%	Easy
17	Sea Eagles	Away	59%	Hard
19	Titans	Home	85%	Easy
20	Roosters	Away	49%	Hard
21	Rabbitohs	Away	73%	Easy
22	Bulldogs	Home	77%	Easy
23	Sea Eagles	Home	73%	Easy
25	Panthers	Home	52%	Hard
26	Broncos	Away	68%	Moderate
27	Sharks	Away	52%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Titans	Home	79%	Easy
2	Panthers	Away	27%	Very Hard
3	Dolphins	Home	72%	Easy
4	Raiders	Away	63%	Moderate
5	Warriors	Home	75%	Easy
6	Roosters	Home	55%	Hard
8	Cowboys	Away	47%	Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
10	Rabbitohs	Away	65%	Moderate
11	Bulldogs	Home	69%	Moderate
13	Sea Eagles	Home	65%	Moderate
14	Dragons	Home	78%	Easy
15	Warriors	Away	61%	Moderate
16	Roosters	Away	39%	Very Hard
18	Broncos	Away	58%	Hard
19	Dolphins	Away	57%	Hard
20	Knights	Home	69%	Moderate
21	Sea Eagles	Away	49%	Hard
22	Rabbitohs	Home	78%	Easy
23	Dragons	Away	64%	Moderate
24	Raiders	Home	76%	Easy
25	Titans	Away	67%	Moderate
26	Eels	Away	63%	Moderate
27	Storm	Home	47%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Warriors	Away	64%	Moderate
2	Rabbitohs	Home	80%	Easy
3	Panthers	Home	45%	Hard
4	Sea Eagles	Away	52%	Hard
6	Sharks	Away	44%	Hard
7	Knights	Home	72%	Easy
8	Dragons	Away	67%	Moderate
9	Broncos	Home	75%	Easy
10	Titans	Home	81%	Easy
11	Cowboys	Home	66%	Moderate
13	Storm	Away	34%	Very Hard
14	Raiders	Away	65%	Moderate
15	Dolphins	Away	60%	Moderate
16	Sharks	Home	60%	Moderate
17	Broncos	Away	61%	Moderate
19	Eels	Home	78%	Easy
20	Storm	Home	50%	Hard
21	Knights	Away	57%	Hard
22	Cowboys	Away	50%	Hard
23	Bulldogs	Home	71%	Easy
24	Panthers	Away	30%	Very Hard
25	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
26	Dolphins	Home	74%	Easy
27	Rabbitohs	Away	67%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Wests Tigers	Away	71%	Easy
3	Titans	Home	76%	Easy
4	Storm	Home	42%	Hard
5	Dragons	Away	59%	Hard
6	Broncos	Away	53%	Hard
7	Sea Eagles	Home	60%	Moderate
8	Sharks	Home	52%	Hard
9	Bulldogs	Away	48%	Hard
10	Eels	Home	72%	Easy
11	Roosters	Away	33%	Very Hard
12	Rabbitohs	Home	74%	Easy
13	Raiders	Away	58%	Hard
14	Dolphins	Home	67%	Moderate
16	Warriors	Away	56%	Hard
17	Panthers	Home	37%	Very Hard
19	Sea Eagles	Away	43%	Hard
20	Dolphins	Away	51%	Hard
21	Broncos	Home	68%	Moderate
22	Roosters	Home	49%	Hard
23	Titans	Away	62%	Moderate
24	Eels	Away	57%	Hard
26	Wests Tigers	Home	82%	Easy
27	Raiders	Home	72%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Raiders	Home	71%	Easy
2	Knights	Home	63%	Moderate
4	Roosters	Home	47%	Hard
5	Dolphins	Away	49%	Hard
6	Dragons	Away	57%	Hard
7	Cowboys	Away	39%	Very Hard
8	Eels	Home	71%	Easy
9	Panthers	Away	22%	Very Hard
10	Broncos	Home	67%	Moderate
11	Wests Tigers	Away	69%	Moderate
12	Titans	Home	74%	Easy
13	Sharks	Away	34%	Very Hard
14	Rabbitohs	Home	72%	Easy
16	Bulldogs	Away	46%	Hard
17	Storm	Home	40%	Hard
18	Eels	Away	56%	Hard
19	Cowboys	Home	56%	Hard
20	Titans	Away	60%	Moderate
21	Sharks	Home	50%	Hard
23	Storm	Away	26%	Very Hard
24	Dolphins	Home	65%	Moderate
25	Knights	Away	47%	Hard
26	Dragons	Home	72%	Easy
27	Warriors	Away	54%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Sea Eagles	Away	36%	Very Hard
3	Warriors	Home	64%	Moderate
4	Bulldogs	Away	41%	Hard
5	Raiders	Home	66%	Moderate
6	Wests Tigers	Away	65%	Moderate
7	Roosters	Away	27%	Very Hard
8	Panthers	Home	30%	Very Hard
9	Rabbitohs	Home	68%	Moderate
10	Dragons	Away	52%	Hard
11	Titans	Away	55%	Hard
13	Eels	Home	66%	Moderate
14	Storm	Away	22%	Very Hard
16	Dragons	Home	68%	Moderate
17	Wests Tigers	Home	78%	Easy
18	Dolphins	Home	60%	Moderate
19	Rabbitohs	Away	53%	Hard
20	Sharks	Away	30%	Very Hard
21	Roosters	Home	42%	Hard
22	Broncos	Away	46%	Hard
23	Raiders	Away	50%	Hard
24	Titans	Home	70%	Easy
25	Sea Eagles	Home	52%	Hard
26	Warriors	Away	49%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Raiders	Away	51%	Hard
4	Knights	Home	58%	Hard
5	Rabbitohs	Away	53%	Hard
6	Panthers	Home	31%	Very Hard
7	Eels	Away	51%	Hard
8	Broncos	Away	46%	Hard
9	Cowboys	Home	51%	Hard
10	Dolphins	Away	45%	Hard
11	Sharks	Away	30%	Very Hard
12	Storm	Home	35%	Very Hard
13	Wests Tigers	Away	65%	Moderate
14	Eels	Home	66%	Moderate
16	Sea Eagles	Home	53%	Hard
17	Titans	Away	55%	Hard
19	Raiders	Home	66%	Moderate
20	Wests Tigers	Home	78%	Easy
21	Warriors	Home	65%	Moderate
22	Storm	Away	22%	Very Hard
23	Roosters	Away	28%	Very Hard
24	Rabbitohs	Home	68%	Moderate
25	Dragons	Away	53%	Hard
26	Panthers	Away	19%	Very Hard
27	Broncos	Home	62%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Rabbitohs	Home	66%	Moderate
2	Titans	Home	68%	Moderate
3	Sharks	Away	27%	Very Hard
4	Broncos	Away	43%	Hard
5	Sea Eagles	Home	50%	Hard
7	Panthers	Home	28%	Very Hard
8	Warriors	Away	46%	Hard
9	Storm	Home	33%	Very Hard
10	Bulldogs	Home	54%	Hard
11	Rabbitohs	Away	50%	Hard
12	Raiders	Away	48%	Hard
14	Cowboys	Away	32%	Very Hard
15	Roosters	Home	39%	Very Hard
16	Wests Tigers	Away	62%	Moderate
17	Warriors	Home	62%	Moderate
18	Knights	Away	39%	Very Hard
19	Sharks	Home	42%	Hard
20	Cowboys	Home	48%	Hard
22	Dragons	Away	49%	Hard
23	Broncos	Home	59%	Hard
24	Sea Eagles	Away	34%	Very Hard
25	Eels	Home	64%	Moderate
26	Roosters	Away	25%	Very Hard
27	Titans	Away	52%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Roosters	Home	35%	Very Hard
2	Raiders	Home	59%	Hard
3	Knights	Away	35%	Very Hard
4	Wests Tigers	Home	73%	Easy
5	Sharks	Away	24%	Very Hard
6	Storm	Away	17%	Very Hard
7	Titans	Home	64%	Moderate
8	Dolphins	Home	53%	Hard
9	Eels	Away	43%	Hard
11	Broncos	Home	55%	Hard
12	Dragons	Away	45%	Hard
13	Panthers	Away	15%	Very Hard
15	Sharks	Home	38%	Very Hard
16	Cowboys	Home	43%	Hard
17	Dolphins	Away	37%	Very Hard
19	Wests Tigers	Away	58%	Hard
20	Dragons	Home	61%	Moderate
21	Bulldogs	Away	34%	Very Hard
22	Titans	Away	48%	Hard
23	Panthers	Home	24%	Very Hard
24	Broncos	Away	39%	Very Hard
25	Rabbitohs	Away	45%	Hard
26	Knights	Home	50%	Hard
27	Sea Eagles	Home	45%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Panthers	Home	27%	Very Hard
2	Eels	Home	62%	Moderate
3	Storm	Away	19%	Very Hard
4	Dolphins	Home	56%	Hard
5	Titans	Away	51%	Hard
6	Cowboys	Home	46%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	61%	Moderate
8	Bulldogs	Home	53%	Hard
9	Roosters	Away	24%	Very Hard
10	Sea Eagles	Away	32%	Very Hard
11	Warriors	Away	44%	Hard
13	Dragons	Home	64%	Moderate
14	Titans	Home	66%	Moderate
15	Rabbitohs	Away	48%	Hard
17	Roosters	Home	38%	Very Hard
18	Sharks	Home	41%	Hard
20	Panthers	Away	16%	Very Hard
21	Cowboys	Away	31%	Very Hard
22	Knights	Home	53%	Hard
23	Dolphins	Away	40%	Hard
24	Warriors	Home	60%	Moderate
25	Raiders	Away	46%	Hard
26	Storm	Home	31%	Very Hard
27	Bulldogs	Away	37%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Storm	Away	16%	Very Hard
2	Broncos	Away	37%	Very Hard
3	Dragons	Home	60%	Moderate
4	Panthers	Away	15%	Very Hard
5	Wests Tigers	Home	71%	Easy
6	Titans	Home	62%	Moderate
7	Bulldogs	Home	48%	Hard
8	Sea Eagles	Away	28%	Very Hard
9	Warriors	Home	56%	Hard
10	Cowboys	Away	27%	Very Hard
11	Storm	Home	27%	Very Hard
13	Knights	Away	33%	Very Hard
14	Bulldogs	Away	33%	Very Hard
15	Raiders	Home	58%	Hard
17	Rabbitohs	Home	60%	Moderate
18	Sea Eagles	Home	43%	Hard
19	Roosters	Away	21%	Very Hard
21	Panthers	Home	23%	Very Hard
22	Wests Tigers	Away	56%	Hard
23	Rabbitohs	Away	44%	Hard
24	Cowboys	Home	42%	Hard
25	Dolphins	Away	35%	Very Hard
26	Sharks	Home	36%	Very Hard
27	Dragons	Away	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Sea Eagles	Away	28%	Very Hard
2	Warriors	Away	40%	Hard
3	Bulldogs	Home	48%	Hard
4	Sharks	Home	36%	Very Hard
5	Knights	Away	33%	Very Hard
6	Rabbitohs	Away	44%	Hard
7	Storm	Home	27%	Very Hard
8	Wests Tigers	Away	56%	Hard
9	Titans	Away	46%	Hard
10	Panthers	Home	23%	Very Hard
12	Dolphins	Home	51%	Hard
13	Cowboys	Home	41%	Hard
14	Roosters	Home	34%	Very Hard
15	Eels	Away	41%	Hard
16	Storm	Away	16%	Very Hard
17	Dragons	Home	59%	Hard
19	Bulldogs	Away	33%	Very Hard
20	Rabbitohs	Home	60%	Moderate
21	Wests Tigers	Home	71%	Easy
22	Panthers	Away	15%	Very Hard
23	Knights	Home	49%	Hard
24	Sharks	Away	23%	Very Hard
25	Broncos	Home	53%	Hard
27	Cowboys	Away	27%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Storm	Home	26%	Very Hard
3	Eels	Away	39%	Very Hard
4	Titans	Away	44%	Hard
5	Cowboys	Home	40%	Hard
6	Sea Eagles	Home	42%	Hard
7	Rabbitohs	Away	42%	Hard
8	Roosters	Home	32%	Very Hard
10	Knights	Home	47%	Hard
11	Panthers	Away	15%	Very Hard
12	Warriors	Home	54%	Hard
13	Broncos	Away	35%	Very Hard
14	Sharks	Away	21%	Very Hard
16	Knights	Away	31%	Very Hard
17	Raiders	Away	40%	Hard
18	Wests Tigers	Home	70%	Easy
20	Warriors	Away	38%	Very Hard
21	Titans	Home	60%	Moderate
22	Dolphins	Home	50%	Hard
23	Sharks	Home	35%	Very Hard
24	Wests Tigers	Away	54%	Hard
25	Bulldogs	Home	46%	Hard
26	Sea Eagles	Away	27%	Very Hard
27	Eels	Home	56%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Dolphins	Away	33%	Very Hard
2	Roosters	Away	19%	Very Hard
3	Wests Tigers	Home	69%	Moderate
5	Bulldogs	Home	46%	Hard
6	Raiders	Home	55%	Hard
7	Dragons	Home	57%	Hard
8	Storm	Away	15%	Very Hard
9	Knights	Away	31%	Very Hard
10	Sharks	Home	34%	Very Hard
11	Dolphins	Home	49%	Hard
12	Cowboys	Away	25%	Very Hard
14	Sea Eagles	Away	27%	Very Hard
15	Broncos	Home	51%	Hard
17	Eels	Away	39%	Very Hard
18	Panthers	Away	15%	Very Hard
19	Knights	Home	46%	Hard
20	Raiders	Away	39%	Very Hard
21	Storm	Home	26%	Very Hard
22	Sharks	Away	21%	Very Hard
23	Eels	Home	55%	Hard
24	Bulldogs	Away	31%	Very Hard
25	Warriors	Home	54%	Hard
26	Titans	Away	44%	Hard
27	Roosters	Home	32%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Sharks	Away	20%	Very Hard
2	Dolphins	Away	31%	Very Hard
3	Cowboys	Away	23%	Very Hard
4	Dragons	Home	55%	Hard
5	Broncos	Home	48%	Hard
6	Eels	Away	37%	Very Hard
7	Warriors	Away	35%	Very Hard
9	Raiders	Home	53%	Hard
10	Roosters	Away	18%	Very Hard
11	Knights	Home	44%	Hard
12	Sea Eagles	Away	25%	Very Hard
14	Broncos	Away	33%	Very Hard
15	Wests Tigers	Away	52%	Hard
16	Panthers	Home	20%	Very Hard
17	Bulldogs	Home	44%	Hard
19	Storm	Away	15%	Very Hard
20	Sea Eagles	Home	39%	Very Hard
21	Dragons	Away	39%	Very Hard
22	Warriors	Home	51%	Hard
23	Cowboys	Home	37%	Very Hard
24	Knights	Away	29%	Very Hard
25	Sharks	Home	32%	Very Hard
26	Rabbitohs	Home	55%	Hard
27	Dolphins	Home	47%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Cowboys	Home	28%	Very Hard
3	Rabbitohs	Away	30%	Very Hard
4	Warriors	Away	26%	Very Hard
5	Eels	Away	28%	Very Hard
6	Knights	Home	34%	Very Hard
7	Broncos	Home	38%	Very Hard
8	Raiders	Home	43%	Hard
9	Sharks	Away	15%	Very Hard
10	Storm	Away	15%	Very Hard
11	Sea Eagles	Home	30%	Very Hard
13	Bulldogs	Home	34%	Very Hard
14	Panthers	Home	15%	Very Hard
15	Titans	Home	47%	Hard
16	Dolphins	Home	37%	Very Hard
17	Knights	Away	21%	Very Hard
18	Dragons	Away	29%	Very Hard
19	Warriors	Home	41%	Hard
20	Bulldogs	Away	21%	Very Hard
21	Raiders	Away	28%	Very Hard
22	Eels	Home	43%	Hard
24	Dragons	Home	45%	Hard
25	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
26	Cowboys	Away	17%	Very Hard
27	Panthers	Away	15%	Very Hard

Round 16 Predictions (202 total matches across 27 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Knights	1500	Dragons	1424	68%
Wests Tigers	1332	Dolphins	1481	37%
Titans	1405	Panthers	1698	20%
Bulldogs	1503	Sea Eagles	1536	53%
Warriors	1450	Cowboys	1550	43%
Storm	1660	Raiders	1437	83%
Roosters	1609	Sharks	1588	60%

Round 16 of 27 (7 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Finals Bracket Preview

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Week 2 - Semi Finals

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

Week 4 - Grand Final

Most Likely Grand Final

All Championship Contenders

Ladder Position Distribution

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Panthers 24 games remaining Expected: 18.0 wins 75% win rate

Storm 24 games remaining Expected: 16.8 wins 70% win rate

Sharks 24 games remaining Expected: 15.2 wins 63% win rate

Roosters 24 games remaining Expected: 15.0 wins 63% win rate

Cowboys 23 games remaining Expected: 13.6 wins 59% win rate

Sea Eagles 24 games remaining Expected: 13.2 wins 55% win rate

Knights 23 games remaining Expected: 12.0 wins 52% win rate

Bulldogs 23 games remaining Expected: 11.6 wins 51% win rate

Dolphins 24 games remaining Expected: 11.3 wins 47% win rate

Warriors 24 games remaining Expected: 10.5 wins 44% win rate

Broncos 24 games remaining Expected: 10.6 wins 44% win rate

Eels 24 games remaining Expected: 9.9 wins 41% win rate

Raiders 24 games remaining Expected: 9.7 wins 40% win rate

Dragons 23 games remaining Expected: 9.5 wins 41% win rate

Rabbitohs 24 games remaining Expected: 9.3 wins 39% win rate

Titans 24 games remaining Expected: 8.9 wins 37% win rate

Wests Tigers 24 games remaining Expected: 7.0 wins 29% win rate

Round 16 Predictions (202 total matches across 27 rounds)