Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Jul 11, 2025 00:28
Current Round:: Round 2
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	7.9	3.1	17.7	274.6	221.9	52.7	65%	86%	95%	43%	0%	0%
2	Broncos	7.3	3.7	16.6	269.7	225.6	44.1	50%	79%	91%	27%	0%	0%
3	Bulldogs	6.8	4.2	15.5	219.2	197.2	22.0	28%	60%	81%	11%	0%	0%
4	Knights	6.3	4.7	14.7	172.3	166.5	5.8	15%	46%	69%	6%	0%	1%
5	Dragons	5.6	5.4	13.2	307.4	292.2	15.2	11%	34%	59%	4%	0%	1%
6	Sharks	5.3	5.7	12.7	183.0	180.2	2.8	8%	26%	47%	2%	0%	3%
7	Eels	5.3	5.7	12.6	192.7	200.9	-8.1	5%	21%	43%	1%	0%	5%
8	Cowboys	5.0	6.0	12.0	210.5	212.3	-1.8	6%	20%	40%	1%	0%	5%
9	Warriors	4.9	6.1	11.9	130.1	155.1	-24.9	4%	13%	30%	1%	0%	10%
10	Titans	4.3	6.7	10.6	135.7	160.4	-24.7	1%	7%	20%	0%	0%	14%
11	Raiders	3.9	7.1	9.8	139.9	178.8	-38.9	1%	4%	13%	0%	0%	23%
12	Wests Tigers	3.4	7.6	8.9	122.2	166.3	-44.1	0%	1%	6%	0%	0%	35%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Roosters (1st) vs Knights (4th)

Home: Roosters

Roosters: 0% to win championship
Knights: 0% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Broncos (2nd) vs Bulldogs (3rd)

Home: Broncos

Broncos: 0% to win championship
Bulldogs: 0% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Dragons (5th) vs Cowboys (8th)

Home: Dragons

Dragons: 0% to win championship
Cowboys: 0% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Sharks (6th) vs Eels (7th)

Home: Sharks

Sharks: 0% to win championship
Eels: 0% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Knights vs Dragons

Home: Knights

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Bulldogs vs Sharks

Home: Bulldogs

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Roosters vs Bulldogs

Home: Roosters

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Broncos vs Knights

Home: Broncos

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Roosters vs Broncos

0% to win 0% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

No position distribution data available for this simulation.

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Dragons	Away	64%	Moderate
3	Broncos	Away	48%	Hard
4	Bulldogs	Home	72%	Easy
5	Wests Tigers	Away	74%	Easy
6	Titans	Away	68%	Moderate
7	Knights	Home	67%	Moderate
8	Eels	Away	69%	Moderate
9	Cowboys	Away	70%	Easy
10	Raiders	Home	82%	Easy
11	Sharks	Home	72%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Titans	Away	62%	Moderate
3	Roosters	Home	51%	Hard
4	Dragons	Away	58%	Hard
5	Sharks	Home	66%	Moderate
6	Raiders	Away	64%	Moderate
7	Eels	Home	77%	Easy
8	Knights	Away	44%	Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	66%	Moderate
10	Warriors	Away	57%	Hard
11	Cowboys	Home	77%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Dragons	Home	65%	Moderate
4	Roosters	Away	27%	Very Hard
5	Titans	Away	53%	Hard
6	Warriors	Home	64%	Moderate
7	Cowboys	Away	55%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	70%	Easy
9	Broncos	Away	33%	Very Hard
10	Sharks	Home	57%	Hard
11	Eels	Away	54%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Cowboys	Away	61%	Moderate
3	Warriors	Home	70%	Easy
4	Eels	Away	61%	Moderate
5	Raiders	Home	75%	Easy
6	Wests Tigers	Home	79%	Easy
7	Roosters	Away	32%	Very Hard
8	Broncos	Home	55%	Hard
9	Sharks	Away	48%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	74%	Easy
11	Dragons	Home	70%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Roosters	Home	35%	Very Hard
3	Bulldogs	Away	34%	Very Hard
4	Broncos	Home	41%	Hard
5	Eels	Away	47%	Hard
6	Sharks	Home	50%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	53%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	46%	Hard
9	Warriors	Home	57%	Hard
10	Cowboys	Home	63%	Moderate
11	Knights	Away	29%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Raiders	Away	56%	Hard
3	Cowboys	Home	70%	Easy
4	Wests Tigers	Home	74%	Easy
5	Broncos	Away	33%	Very Hard
6	Dragons	Away	49%	Hard
7	Titans	Home	69%	Moderate
8	Warriors	Away	48%	Hard
9	Knights	Home	51%	Hard
10	Bulldogs	Away	42%	Hard
11	Roosters	Away	27%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Warriors	Away	36%	Very Hard
3	Raiders	Away	43%	Hard
4	Knights	Home	38%	Very Hard
5	Dragons	Home	52%	Hard
6	Cowboys	Home	58%	Hard
7	Broncos	Away	22%	Very Hard
8	Roosters	Home	30%	Very Hard
9	Titans	Away	40%	Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Home	63%	Moderate
11	Bulldogs	Home	45%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Knights	Home	38%	Very Hard
3	Sharks	Away	29%	Very Hard
4	Raiders	Home	58%	Hard
5	Warriors	Home	51%	Hard
6	Eels	Away	41%	Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	44%	Hard
8	Wests Tigers	Away	47%	Hard
9	Roosters	Home	29%	Very Hard
10	Dragons	Away	36%	Very Hard
11	Broncos	Away	22%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Eels	Home	63%	Moderate
3	Knights	Away	29%	Very Hard
4	Titans	Home	62%	Moderate
5	Cowboys	Away	48%	Hard
6	Bulldogs	Away	35%	Very Hard
7	Raiders	Home	64%	Moderate
8	Sharks	Home	51%	Hard
9	Dragons	Away	42%	Hard
10	Broncos	Home	42%	Hard
11	Wests Tigers	Away	53%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Broncos	Home	37%	Very Hard
3	Wests Tigers	Away	48%	Hard
4	Warriors	Away	37%	Very Hard
5	Bulldogs	Home	46%	Hard
6	Roosters	Home	31%	Very Hard
7	Sharks	Away	30%	Very Hard
8	Dragons	Home	53%	Hard
9	Eels	Home	59%	Hard
10	Knights	Away	25%	Very Hard
11	Raiders	Home	60%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Sharks	Home	43%	Hard
3	Eels	Home	56%	Hard
4	Cowboys	Away	41%	Hard
5	Knights	Away	24%	Very Hard
6	Broncos	Home	35%	Very Hard
7	Warriors	Away	35%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	29%	Very Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Home	62%	Moderate
10	Roosters	Away	17%	Very Hard
11	Titans	Away	39%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Titans	Home	51%	Hard
4	Sharks	Away	25%	Very Hard
5	Roosters	Home	25%	Very Hard
6	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard
7	Dragons	Home	46%	Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	52%	Hard
9	Raiders	Away	37%	Very Hard
10	Eels	Away	36%	Very Hard
11	Warriors	Home	46%	Hard

Round 3 Predictions (59 total matches across 10 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Raiders	1433	Eels	1441	56%
Bulldogs	1531	Dragons	1479	65%
Sharks	1533	Cowboys	1438	70%
Wests Tigers	1401	Titans	1448	51%
Broncos	1595	Roosters	1643	51%
Knights	1576	Warriors	1483	70%

Round 2 of 10 (6 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Finals Bracket Preview

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Week 2 - Semi Finals

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

Week 4 - Grand Final

Most Likely Grand Final

All Championship Contenders

Ladder Position Distribution

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 10 games remaining Expected: 6.9 wins 69% win rate

Broncos 10 games remaining Expected: 6.3 wins 63% win rate

Bulldogs 9 games remaining Expected: 4.8 wins 54% win rate

Knights 10 games remaining Expected: 6.3 wins 63% win rate

Dragons 10 games remaining Expected: 4.6 wins 46% win rate

Sharks 10 games remaining Expected: 5.2 wins 52% win rate

Eels 10 games remaining Expected: 4.3 wins 43% win rate

Cowboys 10 games remaining Expected: 4.0 wins 40% win rate

Warriors 10 games remaining Expected: 4.9 wins 49% win rate

Titans 10 games remaining Expected: 4.3 wins 43% win rate

Raiders 10 games remaining Expected: 3.9 wins 39% win rate

Wests Tigers 9 games remaining Expected: 3.4 wins 38% win rate

Round 3 Predictions (59 total matches across 10 rounds)