Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Jul 11, 2025 00:28
Current Round:: Round 2
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes and final ladder positions:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The percentages show how often each team achieved that position across all simulations. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	7.9	3.1	17.7	274.6	221.9	52.7	65%	86%	95%	43%	0%
2	Broncos	7.3	3.7	16.6	269.7	225.6	44.1	50%	79%	91%	27%	0%
3	Bulldogs	6.8	4.2	15.5	219.2	197.2	22.0	28%	60%	81%	11%	0%
4	Knights	6.3	4.7	14.7	172.3	166.5	5.8	15%	46%	69%	6%	1%
5	Dragons	5.6	5.4	13.2	307.4	292.2	15.2	11%	34%	59%	4%	1%
6	Sharks	5.3	5.7	12.7	183.0	180.2	2.8	8%	26%	47%	2%	3%
7	Eels	5.3	5.7	12.6	192.7	200.9	-8.1	5%	21%	43%	1%	5%
8	Cowboys	5.0	6.0	12.0	210.5	212.3	-1.8	6%	20%	40%	1%	5%
9	Warriors	4.9	6.1	11.9	130.1	155.1	-24.9	4%	13%	30%	1%	10%
10	Titans	4.3	6.7	10.6	135.7	160.4	-24.7	1%	7%	20%	0%	14%
11	Raiders	3.9	7.1	9.8	139.9	178.8	-38.9	1%	4%	13%	0%	23%
12	Wests Tigers	3.4	7.6	8.9	122.2	166.3	-44.1	0%	1%	6%	0%	35%

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Dragons	Away	64%	Moderate
3	Broncos	Away	48%	Hard
4	Bulldogs	Home	72%	Easy
5	Wests Tigers	Away	74%	Easy
6	Titans	Away	68%	Moderate
7	Knights	Home	67%	Moderate
8	Eels	Away	69%	Moderate
9	Cowboys	Away	70%	Easy
10	Raiders	Home	82%	Easy
11	Sharks	Home	72%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Titans	Away	62%	Moderate
3	Roosters	Home	51%	Hard
4	Dragons	Away	58%	Hard
5	Sharks	Home	66%	Moderate
6	Raiders	Away	64%	Moderate
7	Eels	Home	77%	Easy
8	Knights	Away	44%	Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	66%	Moderate
10	Warriors	Away	57%	Hard
11	Cowboys	Home	77%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Dragons	Home	65%	Moderate
4	Roosters	Away	27%	Very Hard
5	Titans	Away	53%	Hard
6	Warriors	Home	64%	Moderate
7	Cowboys	Away	55%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	70%	Easy
9	Broncos	Away	33%	Very Hard
10	Sharks	Home	57%	Hard
11	Eels	Away	54%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Cowboys	Away	61%	Moderate
3	Warriors	Home	70%	Easy
4	Eels	Away	61%	Moderate
5	Raiders	Home	75%	Easy
6	Wests Tigers	Home	79%	Easy
7	Roosters	Away	32%	Very Hard
8	Broncos	Home	55%	Hard
9	Sharks	Away	48%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	74%	Easy
11	Dragons	Home	70%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Roosters	Home	35%	Very Hard
3	Bulldogs	Away	34%	Very Hard
4	Broncos	Home	41%	Hard
5	Eels	Away	47%	Hard
6	Sharks	Home	50%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	53%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	46%	Hard
9	Warriors	Home	57%	Hard
10	Cowboys	Home	63%	Moderate
11	Knights	Away	29%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Raiders	Away	56%	Hard
3	Cowboys	Home	70%	Easy
4	Wests Tigers	Home	74%	Easy
5	Broncos	Away	33%	Very Hard
6	Dragons	Away	49%	Hard
7	Titans	Home	69%	Moderate
8	Warriors	Away	48%	Hard
9	Knights	Home	51%	Hard
10	Bulldogs	Away	42%	Hard
11	Roosters	Away	27%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Warriors	Away	36%	Very Hard
3	Raiders	Away	43%	Hard
4	Knights	Home	38%	Very Hard
5	Dragons	Home	52%	Hard
6	Cowboys	Home	58%	Hard
7	Broncos	Away	22%	Very Hard
8	Roosters	Home	30%	Very Hard
9	Titans	Away	40%	Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Home	63%	Moderate
11	Bulldogs	Home	45%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Knights	Home	38%	Very Hard
3	Sharks	Away	29%	Very Hard
4	Raiders	Home	58%	Hard
5	Warriors	Home	51%	Hard
6	Eels	Away	41%	Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	44%	Hard
8	Wests Tigers	Away	47%	Hard
9	Roosters	Home	29%	Very Hard
10	Dragons	Away	36%	Very Hard
11	Broncos	Away	22%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Eels	Home	63%	Moderate
3	Knights	Away	29%	Very Hard
4	Titans	Home	62%	Moderate
5	Cowboys	Away	48%	Hard
6	Bulldogs	Away	35%	Very Hard
7	Raiders	Home	64%	Moderate
8	Sharks	Home	51%	Hard
9	Dragons	Away	42%	Hard
10	Broncos	Home	42%	Hard
11	Wests Tigers	Away	53%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Broncos	Home	37%	Very Hard
3	Wests Tigers	Away	48%	Hard
4	Warriors	Away	37%	Very Hard
5	Bulldogs	Home	46%	Hard
6	Roosters	Home	31%	Very Hard
7	Sharks	Away	30%	Very Hard
8	Dragons	Home	53%	Hard
9	Eels	Home	59%	Hard
10	Knights	Away	25%	Very Hard
11	Raiders	Home	60%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Sharks	Home	43%	Hard
3	Eels	Home	56%	Hard
4	Cowboys	Away	41%	Hard
5	Knights	Away	24%	Very Hard
6	Broncos	Home	35%	Very Hard
7	Warriors	Away	35%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	29%	Very Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Home	62%	Moderate
10	Roosters	Away	17%	Very Hard
11	Titans	Away	39%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Titans	Home	51%	Hard
4	Sharks	Away	25%	Very Hard
5	Roosters	Home	25%	Very Hard
6	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard
7	Dragons	Home	46%	Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	52%	Hard
9	Raiders	Away	37%	Very Hard
10	Eels	Away	36%	Very Hard
11	Warriors	Home	46%	Hard

Round 2 Predictions (59 total matches across 10 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Raiders	1433	Sharks	1533	43%
Dragons	1479	Roosters	1643	35%
Cowboys	1438	Knights	1576	38%
Warriors	1483	Eels	1441	63%
Titans	1448	Broncos	1595	37%

Round 1 of 10 (5 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 10 games remaining Expected: 6.9 wins 69% win rate

Broncos 10 games remaining Expected: 6.3 wins 63% win rate

Bulldogs 9 games remaining Expected: 4.8 wins 54% win rate

Knights 10 games remaining Expected: 6.3 wins 63% win rate

Dragons 10 games remaining Expected: 4.6 wins 46% win rate

Sharks 10 games remaining Expected: 5.2 wins 52% win rate

Eels 10 games remaining Expected: 4.3 wins 43% win rate

Cowboys 10 games remaining Expected: 4.0 wins 40% win rate

Warriors 10 games remaining Expected: 4.9 wins 49% win rate

Titans 10 games remaining Expected: 4.3 wins 43% win rate

Raiders 10 games remaining Expected: 3.9 wins 39% win rate

Wests Tigers 9 games remaining Expected: 3.4 wins 38% win rate

Round 2 Predictions (59 total matches across 10 rounds)