Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Aug 31, 2025 05:17
Current Round:: Round 9
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	D	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	10.6	0.4	0.0	23.3	345.3	137.3	208.0	100%	100%	100%	88%	47%	0%
2	Broncos	9.4	1.6	0.0	20.8	345.6	153.8	191.7	99%	100%	100%	11%	33%	0%
3	Knights	7.0	4.0	0.0	15.9	235.5	186.7	48.8	0%	78%	99%	0%	9%	0%
4	Cowboys	6.7	4.3	0.0	15.3	169.8	147.2	22.6	0%	48%	100%	0%	2%	0%
5	Sharks	6.5	4.5	0.0	14.9	235.7	174.5	61.2	0%	66%	99%	0%	6%	0%
6	Titans	4.6	5.4	1.0	12.2	147.0	179.4	-32.4	0%	6%	61%	0%	0%	0%
7	Eels	4.7	6.3	0.0	11.3	144.7	224.4	-79.7	0%	0%	29%	0%	0%	0%
8	Warriors	3.9	7.1	0.0	9.8	176.6	199.9	-23.3	0%	0%	4%	0%	0%	0%
9	Dragons	3.7	7.3	0.0	9.4	155.1	201.4	-46.3	0%	0%	2%	0%	0%	0%
10	Raiders	3.5	7.5	0.0	8.9	179.7	316.8	-137.1	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	4%
11	Bulldogs	2.9	7.1	1.0	8.7	163.9	256.0	-92.1	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	4%
12	Wests Tigers	1.7	9.3	0.0	5.4	110.5	232.1	-121.6	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	91%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Roosters (1st) vs Cowboys (4th)

Home: Roosters

Roosters: 47% to win championship
Cowboys: 2% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Broncos (2nd) vs Knights (3rd)

Home: Broncos

Broncos: 33% to win championship
Knights: 9% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Sharks (5th) vs Warriors (8th)

Home: Sharks

Sharks: 6% to win championship
Warriors: 0% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Titans (6th) vs Eels (7th)

Home: Titans

Titans: 0% to win championship
Eels: 0% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Cowboys vs Sharks

Home: Cowboys

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Knights vs Titans

Home: Knights

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Roosters vs Knights

Home: Roosters

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Broncos vs Sharks

Home: Broncos

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Roosters vs Broncos

47% to win 33% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

Roosters 47%

Broncos 33%

Knights 9%

Cowboys 2%

Sharks 6%

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th
Roosters	88%	11%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Broncos	11%	87%	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Knights	-	0%	43%	34%	15%	5%	0%	-	-	-	-	-
Cowboys	-	0%	10%	37%	48%	3%	-	-	-	-	-	-
Sharks	-	-	44%	22%	24%	8%	0%	-	-	-	-	-
Titans	-	-	1%	5%	9%	45%	21%	9%	3%	3%	0%	-
Eels	-	-	-	-	2%	27%	25%	16%	14%	8%	5%	0%
Warriors	-	-	-	-	-	4%	27%	38%	14%	12%	3%	-
Dragons	-	-	-	-	-	2%	9%	20%	36%	22%	8%	-
Raiders	-	-	-	-	-	1%	4%	5%	14%	31%	38%	4%
Bulldogs	-	-	-	-	-	1%	10%	9%	17%	17%	39%	4%
Wests Tigers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4%	4%	91%

Reading the table: Each row shows the probability of that team finishing in each position. For example, if a team has 25% in the "1st" column, they finished first in 25% of the 1000 simulated seasons. Each row should sum to approximately 100%.

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
10	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
11	Sharks	Home	78%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
9	Bulldogs	Home	85%	Easy
10	Warriors	Away	73%	Easy
11	Cowboys	Home	84%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
9	Sharks	Away	41%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	75%	Easy
11	Dragons	Home	79%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
10	Dragons	Away	49%	Hard
11	Broncos	Away	15%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
9	Knights	Home	58%	Hard
10	Bulldogs	Away	70%	Easy
11	Roosters	Away	21%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
9	Eels	Home	65%	Moderate
10	Knights	Away	24%	Very Hard
11	Raiders	Home	67%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
9	Titans	Away	34%	Very Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Home	67%	Moderate
11	Bulldogs	Home	60%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
10	Broncos	Home	26%	Very Hard
11	Wests Tigers	Away	61%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
10	Cowboys	Home	50%	Hard
11	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
10	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
11	Titans	Away	32%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
9	Broncos	Away	15%	Very Hard
10	Sharks	Home	29%	Very Hard
11	Eels	Away	39%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
10	Eels	Away	32%	Very Hard
11	Warriors	Home	38%	Very Hard

Round 10 Predictions (15 total matches across 3 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Roosters	1758	Raiders	1387	85%
Dragons	1417	Cowboys	1474	50%
Bulldogs	1388	Sharks	1595	29%
Warriors	1475	Broncos	1713	26%
Knights	1593	Titans	1457	75%
Eels	1406	Wests Tigers	1336	67%

Round 2 of 3 (6 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Finals Bracket Preview

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Week 2 - Semi Finals

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

Week 4 - Grand Final

Most Likely Grand Final

All Championship Contenders

Ladder Position Distribution

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 2 games remaining Expected: 1.6 wins 82% win rate

Broncos 3 games remaining Expected: 2.4 wins 81% win rate

Knights 3 games remaining Expected: 2.0 wins 65% win rate

Cowboys 2 games remaining Expected: 0.7 wins 33% win rate

Sharks 3 games remaining Expected: 1.5 wins 50% win rate

Titans 3 games remaining Expected: 1.6 wins 52% win rate

Eels 3 games remaining Expected: 1.6 wins 54% win rate

Warriors 2 games remaining Expected: 0.9 wins 44% win rate

Dragons 2 games remaining Expected: 0.7 wins 35% win rate

Raiders 2 games remaining Expected: 0.5 wins 24% win rate

Bulldogs 3 games remaining Expected: 0.8 wins 28% win rate

Wests Tigers 2 games remaining Expected: 0.7 wins 35% win rate

Round 10 Predictions (15 total matches across 3 rounds)