Season Simulation

Simulation Details
Competition:
Telstra Premiership
Season:
2025
Run Date:
Aug 31, 2025 05:15
Current Round:
Round 26
Iterations:
1000
Parameters
Elo Ratings:
Enabled
Home Advantage:
0.57
Predicted Final Ladder
Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

  • Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
  • Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
  • Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
  • Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
  • Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos Team W L D Pts PF PA Diff Top 2 % Top 4 % Finals % 🥇 % 🏆 % 🥄 %
1 Raiders 19.6 4.4 0.0 47.2 657.4 470.2 187.2 100% 100% 100% 100% 22% 0%
2 Storm 17.6 6.4 0.0 43.2 685.2 456.1 229.1 100% 100% 100% 0% 36% 0%
3 Bulldogs 16.6 7.4 0.0 41.1 551.3 412.3 139.0 0% 100% 100% 0% 12% 0%
4 Warriors 14.4 9.6 0.0 36.9 510.9 489.9 21.0 0% 15% 100% 0% 1% 0%
5 Broncos 14.4 9.6 0.0 36.8 677.1 522.2 154.9 0% 62% 100% 0% 9% 0%
6 Sharks 14.3 9.7 0.0 36.5 572.5 501.7 70.8 0% 22% 100% 0% 4% 0%
7 Panthers 12.7 10.3 1.0 34.5 557.5 467.1 90.4 0% 0% 100% 0% 3% 0%
8 Roosters 12.8 11.2 0.0 33.7 634.4 527.1 107.2 0% 0% 96% 0% 9% 0%
9 Sea Eagles 11.6 12.4 0.0 31.1 548.9 527.9 21.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
10 Dolphins 11.2 12.8 0.0 30.5 668.7 584.1 84.5 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
11 Eels 9.7 14.3 0.0 27.5 450.4 578.9 -128.5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
12 Wests Tigers 9.5 14.5 0.0 27.0 465.9 592.7 -126.8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
13 Cowboys 9.0 14.0 1.0 27.0 538.0 684.0 -146.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
14 Rabbitohs 9.2 14.8 0.0 26.3 433.1 589.4 -156.2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
15 Dragons 8.3 15.7 0.0 24.5 496.1 609.5 -113.4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
16 Knights 6.4 17.6 0.0 20.9 333.2 561.5 -228.3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 41%
17 Titans 5.7 18.3 0.0 19.4 485.5 691.4 -205.9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 58%
Finals Bracket Preview
Based on current average ladder positions
Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals
1st Qualifying Final
Raiders (1st) vs Warriors (4th)
Home: Raiders
Raiders: 22% to win championship
Warriors: 1% to win championship
2nd Qualifying Final
Storm (2nd) vs Bulldogs (3rd)
Home: Storm
Storm: 36% to win championship
Bulldogs: 12% to win championship
1st Elimination Final
Broncos (5th) vs Roosters (8th)
Home: Broncos
Broncos: 9% to win championship
Roosters: 9% to win championship
2nd Elimination Final
Sharks (6th) vs Panthers (7th)
Home: Sharks
Sharks: 4% to win championship
Panthers: 3% to win championship
Week 2 - Semi Finals
1st Semi Final
Warriors vs Roosters
Home: Warriors
Most likely based on championship odds
2nd Semi Final
Bulldogs vs Sharks
Home: Bulldogs
Most likely based on championship odds
Week 3 - Preliminary Finals
1st Preliminary Final
Raiders vs Bulldogs
Home: Raiders
Most likely progression
2nd Preliminary Final
Storm vs Roosters
Home: Storm
Most likely progression
Week 4 - Grand Final
🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆
Most Likely Grand Final
Raiders vs Storm
22% to win 36% to win
Neutral Venue
All Championship Contenders
Raiders 22%
Storm 36%
Bulldogs 12%
Warriors 1%
Broncos 9%
Sharks 4%
Panthers 3%
Roosters 9%
How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.
Ladder Position Distribution
Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th
Raiders 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Storm - 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Bulldogs - - 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Warriors - - - 15% 27% 56% - - - - - - - - - - -
Broncos - - - 62% 29% 8% - - - - - - - - - - -
Sharks - - - 22% 43% 24% 3% 5% - - - - - - - - -
Panthers - - - - - 6% 70% 22% - - - - - - - - -
Roosters - - - - - 2% 25% 68% 3% - - - - - - - -
Sea Eagles - - - - - - - - 41% 58% - - - - - - -
Dolphins - - - - - - - 3% 55% 41% - - - - - - -
Eels - - - - - - - - - - 42% 31% 16% 9% 0% - -
Wests Tigers - - - - - - - - - - 45% 10% 28% 13% 1% - -
Cowboys - - - - - - - - - - 10% 46% 37% 6% - - -
Rabbitohs - - - - - - - - - - 1% 7% 6% 61% 22% - -
Dragons - - - - - - - - - - - 3% 12% 9% 74% - -
Knights - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 58% 41%
Titans - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 41% 58%

Reading the table: Each row shows the probability of that team finishing in each position. For example, if a team has 25% in the "1st" column, they finished first in 25% of the 1000 simulated seasons. Each row should sum to approximately 100%.

Remaining Fixtures by Team
Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
27 Dolphins Away
59%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
27 Broncos Away
56%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
27 Sharks Home
60%
Moderate

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
27 Sea Eagles Away
42%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
27 Storm Home
43%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
26 Knights Home
85%
Easy
27 Bulldogs Away
39%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
27 Dragons Away
76%
Easy

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
27 Rabbitohs Home
85%
Easy

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
27 Warriors Home
57%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
26 Titans Home
81%
Easy
27 Raiders Home
40%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
27 Knights Home
72%
Easy

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
27 Titans Away
51%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
27 Roosters Away
15%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
27 Panthers Home
23%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
26 Sharks Away
15%
Very Hard
27 Eels Away
27%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
26 Dolphins Away
18%
Very Hard
27 Wests Tigers Home
48%
Hard
Round 27 Predictions (10 total matches across 2 rounds)
Home Team Home Elo Away Team Away Elo Home Win %
Broncos 1593 Storm 1693 43%
Sea Eagles 1502 Warriors 1506 57%
Roosters 1678 Rabbitohs 1399 85%
Dragons 1355 Panthers 1617 23%
Titans 1305 Wests Tigers 1370 48%
Bulldogs 1592 Sharks 1578 60%
Dolphins 1500 Raiders 1623 40%
Eels 1432 Knights 1321 72%