Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Aug 29, 2025 04:48
Current Round:: Round 8
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	D	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	10.4	0.6	0.0	20.7	339.2	158.3	180.9	99%	100%	100%	67%	44%	0%
2	Broncos	9.4	1.6	0.0	18.8	347.5	155.4	192.1	98%	100%	100%	32%	35%	0%
3	Knights	7.0	4.0	0.0	14.0	235.5	186.1	49.4	0%	63%	99%	0%	10%	0%
4	Cowboys	7.0	4.0	0.0	14.0	193.8	143.3	50.5	1%	66%	100%	0%	2%	0%
5	Sharks	6.5	4.5	0.0	13.1	238.1	175.4	62.7	0%	66%	98%	0%	8%	0%
6	Titans	4.6	5.4	1.0	10.2	146.0	178.9	-32.9	0%	4%	56%	0%	0%	0%
7	Eels	4.6	6.4	0.0	9.3	143.8	224.0	-80.2	0%	0%	22%	0%	0%	0%
8	Warriors	4.4	6.6	0.0	8.9	172.3	187.2	-14.9	0%	0%	20%	0%	0%	0%
9	Bulldogs	2.8	7.2	1.0	6.6	163.9	256.5	-92.6	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	4%
10	Raiders	3.2	7.8	0.0	6.3	175.6	310.5	-135.0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	23%
11	Dragons	3.1	7.9	0.0	6.1	141.0	197.9	-56.9	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
12	Wests Tigers	2.0	9.0	0.0	4.0	105.2	228.2	-123.1	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	67%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Roosters (1st) vs Cowboys (4th)

Home: Roosters

Roosters: 44% to win championship
Cowboys: 2% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Broncos (2nd) vs Knights (3rd)

Home: Broncos

Broncos: 35% to win championship
Knights: 10% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Sharks (5th) vs Warriors (8th)

Home: Sharks

Sharks: 8% to win championship
Warriors: 0% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Titans (6th) vs Eels (7th)

Home: Titans

Titans: 0% to win championship
Eels: 0% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Cowboys vs Sharks

Home: Cowboys

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Knights vs Titans

Home: Knights

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Roosters vs Knights

Home: Roosters

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Broncos vs Sharks

Home: Broncos

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Roosters vs Broncos

44% to win 35% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

Roosters 44%

Broncos 35%

Knights 10%

Cowboys 2%

Sharks 8%

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th
Roosters	67%	32%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Broncos	32%	66%	1%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Knights	-	-	32%	30%	29%	6%	0%	-	-	-	-	-
Cowboys	0%	1%	25%	39%	32%	1%	-	-	-	-	-	-
Sharks	-	-	40%	25%	24%	7%	1%	-	-	-	-	-
Titans	-	-	0%	4%	10%	41%	21%	14%	6%	2%	0%	-
Eels	-	-	-	-	2%	20%	23%	31%	13%	5%	3%	-
Warriors	-	-	-	-	1%	19%	39%	24%	8%	5%	1%	0%
Bulldogs	-	-	-	-	-	1%	5%	12%	24%	25%	25%	4%
Raiders	-	-	-	-	-	0%	2%	6%	18%	25%	23%	23%
Dragons	-	-	-	-	-	0%	5%	9%	24%	26%	29%	4%
Wests Tigers	-	-	-	-	-	-	0%	1%	4%	9%	16%	67%

Reading the table: Each row shows the probability of that team finishing in each position. For example, if a team has 25% in the "1st" column, they finished first in 25% of the 1000 simulated seasons. Each row should sum to approximately 100%.

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
9	Cowboys	Away	75%	Easy
10	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
11	Sharks	Home	76%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
9	Bulldogs	Home	85%	Easy
10	Warriors	Away	72%	Easy
11	Cowboys	Home	83%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
9	Sharks	Away	41%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	75%	Easy
11	Dragons	Home	80%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
9	Roosters	Home	24%	Very Hard
10	Dragons	Away	54%	Hard
11	Broncos	Away	16%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
9	Knights	Home	58%	Hard
10	Bulldogs	Away	70%	Easy
11	Roosters	Away	23%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
9	Eels	Home	65%	Moderate
10	Knights	Away	24%	Very Hard
11	Raiders	Home	68%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
9	Titans	Away	34%	Very Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Home	66%	Moderate
11	Bulldogs	Home	60%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
9	Dragons	Away	54%	Hard
10	Broncos	Home	27%	Very Hard
11	Wests Tigers	Away	62%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
9	Broncos	Away	15%	Very Hard
10	Sharks	Home	29%	Very Hard
11	Eels	Away	39%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
9	Wests Tigers	Home	63%	Moderate
10	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
11	Titans	Away	31%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
9	Warriors	Home	45%	Hard
10	Cowboys	Home	45%	Hard
11	Knights	Away	19%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
9	Raiders	Away	36%	Very Hard
10	Eels	Away	33%	Very Hard
11	Warriors	Home	37%	Very Hard

Round 11 Predictions (18 total matches across 3 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Roosters	1741	Sharks	1595	76%
Eels	1406	Bulldogs	1388	60%
Broncos	1713	Cowboys	1492	83%
Titans	1457	Raiders	1382	68%
Wests Tigers	1341	Warriors	1490	37%
Knights	1593	Dragons	1402	80%

Round 3 of 3 (6 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Finals Bracket Preview

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Week 2 - Semi Finals

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

Week 4 - Grand Final

Most Likely Grand Final

All Championship Contenders

Ladder Position Distribution

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 3 games remaining Expected: 2.4 wins 79% win rate

Broncos 3 games remaining Expected: 2.4 wins 80% win rate

Knights 3 games remaining Expected: 2.0 wins 66% win rate

Cowboys 3 games remaining Expected: 1.0 wins 32% win rate

Sharks 3 games remaining Expected: 1.5 wins 51% win rate

Titans 3 games remaining Expected: 1.6 wins 53% win rate

Eels 3 games remaining Expected: 1.6 wins 54% win rate

Warriors 3 games remaining Expected: 1.5 wins 48% win rate

Bulldogs 3 games remaining Expected: 0.8 wins 28% win rate

Raiders 3 games remaining Expected: 1.1 wins 37% win rate

Dragons 3 games remaining Expected: 1.1 wins 37% win rate

Wests Tigers 3 games remaining Expected: 1.1 wins 35% win rate

Round 11 Predictions (18 total matches across 3 rounds)