Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Aug 25, 2025 00:33
Current Round:: Round 25
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	D	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Raiders	19.4	4.6	0.0	44.9	652.9	474.5	178.3	100%	100%	100%	74%	21%	0%
2	Storm	18.4	5.6	0.0	42.8	702.6	438.7	263.9	100%	100%	100%	26%	49%	0%
3	Bulldogs	16.0	8.0	0.0	38.1	546.0	431.5	114.6	0%	97%	100%	0%	8%	0%
4	Warriors	15.2	8.8	0.0	36.4	507.2	478.0	29.2	0%	60%	100%	0%	4%	0%
5	Sharks	14.3	9.7	0.0	34.5	572.1	501.3	70.9	0%	19%	100%	0%	4%	0%
6	Broncos	14.0	10.0	0.0	34.0	662.1	514.1	148.0	0%	19%	100%	0%	4%	0%
7	Panthers	13.3	9.7	1.0	33.7	577.2	461.1	116.1	0%	2%	100%	0%	6%	0%
8	Roosters	12.1	11.9	0.0	30.2	617.8	544.2	73.6	0%	0%	67%	0%	2%	0%
9	Dolphins	11.2	12.8	0.0	28.5	668.6	584.1	84.5	0%	0%	29%	0%	0%	0%
10	Sea Eagles	11.2	12.8	0.0	28.3	528.4	522.4	6.0	0%	0%	3%	0%	0%	0%
11	Cowboys	9.4	13.6	1.0	25.7	529.4	669.7	-140.3	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
12	Wests Tigers	9.7	14.3	0.0	25.4	471.4	589.0	-117.6	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
13	Rabbitohs	9.2	14.8	0.0	24.3	433.3	589.5	-156.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
14	Eels	9.0	15.0	0.0	24.0	438.9	575.2	-136.3	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
15	Dragons	8.6	15.4	0.0	23.2	489.9	589.9	-100.1	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
16	Knights	6.4	17.6	0.0	18.9	332.8	561.2	-228.3	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	37%
17	Titans	5.7	18.3	0.0	17.3	486.2	692.4	-206.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	62%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Raiders (1st) vs Warriors (4th)

Home: Raiders

Raiders: 21% to win championship
Warriors: 4% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Storm (2nd) vs Bulldogs (3rd)

Home: Storm

Storm: 49% to win championship
Bulldogs: 8% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Sharks (5th) vs Roosters (8th)

Home: Sharks

Sharks: 4% to win championship
Roosters: 2% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Broncos (6th) vs Panthers (7th)

Home: Broncos

Broncos: 4% to win championship
Panthers: 6% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Warriors vs Sharks

Home: Warriors

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Bulldogs vs Broncos

Home: Bulldogs

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Raiders vs Bulldogs

Home: Raiders

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Storm vs Warriors

Home: Storm

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Raiders vs Storm

21% to win 49% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

Raiders 21%

Storm 49%

Bulldogs 8%

Warriors 4%

Sharks 4%

Broncos 4%

Panthers 6%

Roosters 2%

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	13th	14th	15th	16th	17th
Raiders	74%	26%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Storm	26%	74%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Bulldogs	-	-	87%	9%	2%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Warriors	-	-	8%	52%	24%	10%	3%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Sharks	-	-	0%	19%	24%	30%	22%	1%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Broncos	-	-	3%	16%	26%	27%	26%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Panthers	-	-	-	2%	21%	30%	44%	1%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Roosters	-	-	-	-	-	0%	2%	64%	28%	4%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Dolphins	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	29%	43%	23%	3%	0%	-	-	-	-	-
Sea Eagles	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3%	27%	62%	6%	0%	-	-	-	-	-
Cowboys	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0%	7%	41%	33%	14%	2%	0%	-	-
Wests Tigers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1%	36%	32%	20%	8%	0%	-	-
Rabbitohs	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3%	7%	13%	40%	35%	-	-
Eels	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4%	11%	29%	30%	24%	-	-
Dragons	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	5%	14%	22%	19%	38%	-	-
Knights	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	62%	37%
Titans	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	37%	62%

Reading the table: Each row shows the probability of that team finishing in each position. For example, if a team has 25% in the "1st" column, they finished first in 25% of the 1000 simulated seasons. Each row should sum to approximately 100%.