Season Simulation

Simulation Details
Competition:
Telstra Premiership
Season:
2025
Run Date:
Aug 22, 2025 22:52
Current Round:
Round 25
Iterations:
1000
Parameters
Elo Ratings:
Enabled
Home Advantage:
0.57
Predicted Final Ladder
Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

  • Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
  • Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
  • Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
  • Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
  • Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos Team W L D Pts PF PA Diff Top 2 % Top 4 % Finals % 🥇 % 🏆 % 🥄 %
1 Raiders 19.4 4.6 0.0 46.7 652.4 474.8 177.6 100% 100% 100% 71% 17% 0%
2 Storm 18.4 5.6 0.0 44.8 703.1 439.4 263.7 100% 100% 100% 28% 51% 0%
3 Bulldogs 16.0 8.0 0.0 40.0 545.6 431.3 114.3 0% 99% 100% 0% 9% 0%
4 Warriors 14.9 9.1 0.0 37.9 494.3 475.7 18.6 0% 51% 99% 0% 2% 0%
5 Sharks 14.3 9.7 0.0 36.6 572.7 501.4 71.3 0% 27% 98% 0% 4% 0%
6 Panthers 13.3 9.7 1.0 35.6 577.0 461.2 115.8 0% 7% 98% 0% 6% 0%
7 Broncos 13.6 10.4 0.0 35.3 631.8 515.6 116.3 0% 13% 94% 0% 2% 0%
8 Roosters 13.0 11.0 0.0 33.9 628.3 529.3 99.0 0% 1% 75% 0% 5% 0%
9 Dolphins 11.8 12.2 0.0 31.6 661.8 547.7 114.1 0% 0% 33% 0% 0% 0%
10 Sea Eagles 10.5 13.5 0.0 29.0 490.2 514.9 -24.7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
11 Wests Tigers 10.2 13.8 0.0 28.4 460.7 572.1 -111.4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
12 Cowboys 8.9 14.1 1.0 26.8 511.8 657.8 -146.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
13 Rabbitohs 9.1 14.9 0.0 26.3 432.5 588.9 -156.4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
14 Dragons 8.7 15.3 0.0 25.4 490.2 589.1 -98.8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
15 Eels 8.1 15.9 0.0 24.2 423.5 585.6 -162.2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
16 Knights 6.9 17.1 0.0 21.7 337.7 533.4 -195.6 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 34%
17 Titans 6.0 18.0 0.0 19.9 484.9 680.4 -195.5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 63%
Finals Bracket Preview
Based on current average ladder positions
Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals
1st Qualifying Final
Raiders (1st) vs Warriors (4th)
Home: Raiders
Raiders: 17% to win championship
Warriors: 2% to win championship
2nd Qualifying Final
Storm (2nd) vs Bulldogs (3rd)
Home: Storm
Storm: 51% to win championship
Bulldogs: 9% to win championship
1st Elimination Final
Sharks (5th) vs Roosters (8th)
Home: Sharks
Sharks: 4% to win championship
Roosters: 5% to win championship
2nd Elimination Final
Panthers (6th) vs Broncos (7th)
Home: Panthers
Panthers: 6% to win championship
Broncos: 2% to win championship
Week 2 - Semi Finals
1st Semi Final
Warriors vs Roosters
Home: Warriors
Most likely based on championship odds
2nd Semi Final
Bulldogs vs Panthers
Home: Bulldogs
Most likely based on championship odds
Week 3 - Preliminary Finals
1st Preliminary Final
Raiders vs Panthers
Home: Raiders
Most likely progression
2nd Preliminary Final
Storm vs Roosters
Home: Storm
Most likely progression
Week 4 - Grand Final
🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆
Most Likely Grand Final
Raiders vs Storm
17% to win 51% to win
Neutral Venue
All Championship Contenders
Raiders 17%
Storm 51%
Bulldogs 9%
Warriors 2%
Sharks 4%
Panthers 6%
Broncos 2%
Roosters 5%
How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.
Ladder Position Distribution
Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th
Raiders 71% 28% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Storm 28% 71% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Bulldogs - - 92% 6% 0% 0% - - - - - - - - - - -
Warriors - - 4% 46% 22% 13% 6% 4% 0% - - - - - - - -
Sharks - - 0% 26% 24% 23% 16% 6% 1% - - - - - - - -
Panthers - - - 7% 25% 26% 26% 12% 1% - - - - - - - -
Broncos - - 2% 11% 20% 22% 22% 15% 5% - - - - - - - -
Roosters - - - 1% 6% 11% 19% 37% 24% 0% - - - - - - -
Dolphins - - - - 0% 1% 7% 24% 55% 8% 2% - - - - - -
Sea Eagles - - - - - - - 0% 10% 54% 26% 6% 2% 0% - - -
Wests Tigers - - - - - - - - 1% 24% 44% 17% 9% 1% 0% - -
Cowboys - - - - - - - - 0% 10% 18% 30% 17% 17% 5% - -
Rabbitohs - - - - - - - - - 0% 2% 16% 35% 36% 8% - -
Dragons - - - - - - - - - 1% 5% 24% 22% 32% 14% - -
Eels - - - - - - - - - 0% 0% 4% 12% 9% 58% 13% 1%
Knights - - - - - - - - - - - 0% 0% 0% 11% 52% 34%
Titans - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1% 34% 63%

Reading the table: Each row shows the probability of that team finishing in each position. For example, if a team has 25% in the "1st" column, they finished first in 25% of the 1000 simulated seasons. Each row should sum to approximately 100%.

Remaining Fixtures by Team
Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
26 Wests Tigers Home
83%
Easy
27 Dolphins Away
53%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
26 Roosters Home
68%
Moderate
27 Broncos Away
67%
Moderate

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
26 Panthers Home
45%
Hard
27 Sharks Home
55%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
25 Titans Away
68%
Moderate
26 Eels Home
74%
Easy
27 Sea Eagles Away
50%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
26 Knights Home
84%
Easy
27 Bulldogs Away
44%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
26 Bulldogs Away
54%
Hard
27 Dragons Away
77%
Easy

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
25 Knights Away
71%
Easy
26 Cowboys Away
59%
Hard
27 Storm Home
32%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
25 Eels Away
79%
Easy
26 Storm Away
31%
Very Hard
27 Rabbitohs Home
85%
Easy

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
25 Sea Eagles Away
54%
Hard
26 Titans Home
83%
Easy
27 Raiders Home
46%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
25 Dolphins Home
45%
Hard
26 Dragons Away
52%
Hard
27 Warriors Home
49%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
25 Cowboys Home
51%
Hard
26 Raiders Away
16%
Very Hard
27 Titans Away
51%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
25 Wests Tigers Away
48%
Hard
26 Broncos Home
40%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
27 Roosters Away
15%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
26 Sea Eagles Home
47%
Hard
27 Panthers Home
22%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
25 Roosters Home
20%
Very Hard
26 Warriors Away
25%
Very Hard
27 Knights Home
62%
Moderate

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
25 Broncos Home
28%
Very Hard
26 Sharks Away
15%
Very Hard
27 Eels Away
37%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
25 Warriors Home
31%
Very Hard
26 Dolphins Away
16%
Very Hard
27 Wests Tigers Home
48%
Hard
Round 25 Predictions (21 total matches across 3 rounds)
Home Team Home Elo Away Team Away Elo Home Win %
Sea Eagles 1446 Dolphins 1538 45%
Titans 1318 Warriors 1507 31%
Eels 1377 Roosters 1666 20%
Knights 1344 Broncos 1560 28%
Wests Tigers 1388 Cowboys 1434 51%