Season Simulation

Simulation Details
Competition:
Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:
2025
Run Date:
Aug 17, 2025 04:04
Current Round:
Round 7
Iterations:
1000
Parameters
Elo Ratings:
Enabled
Home Advantage:
0.57
Predicted Final Ladder
Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

  • Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
  • Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
  • Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
  • Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
  • Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos Team W L D Pts PF PA Diff Top 2 % Top 4 % Finals % 🥇 % 🏆 % 🥄 %
1 Roosters 9.8 1.2 0.0 21.5 295.4 169.0 126.4 90% 99% 100% 61% 0% 0%
2 Broncos 8.8 2.2 0.0 19.6 330.9 171.4 159.6 83% 100% 100% 31% 0% 0%
3 Knights 8.0 3.0 0.0 18.0 268.2 172.4 95.8 25% 98% 99% 7% 0% 0%
4 Sharks 5.9 5.1 0.0 13.8 237.7 184.7 53.0 0% 51% 83% 0% 0% 0%
5 Cowboys 5.9 5.1 0.0 13.8 160.3 149.2 11.1 0% 26% 78% 0% 0% 0%
6 Warriors 5.0 6.0 0.0 11.9 179.6 186.1 -6.5 0% 8% 40% 0% 0% 0%
7 Eels 4.8 6.2 0.0 11.7 149.9 190.6 -40.7 0% 2% 24% 0% 0% 0%
8 Bulldogs 4.3 5.7 1.0 11.6 167.1 204.0 -36.9 0% 8% 36% 0% 0% 0%
9 Titans 4.1 5.9 1.0 11.2 133.2 183.6 -50.4 0% 2% 23% 0% 0% 0%
10 Dragons 4.2 6.8 0.0 10.3 150.9 184.3 -33.4 0% 1% 13% 0% 0% 0%
11 Raiders 2.2 8.8 0.0 6.4 117.6 291.9 -174.2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 56%
12 Wests Tigers 2.1 8.9 0.0 6.2 101.6 205.3 -103.8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40%
Finals Bracket Preview
Based on current average ladder positions
Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals
1st Qualifying Final
Roosters (1st) vs Sharks (4th)
Home: Roosters
Roosters: 0% to win championship
Sharks: 0% to win championship
2nd Qualifying Final
Broncos (2nd) vs Knights (3rd)
Home: Broncos
Broncos: 0% to win championship
Knights: 0% to win championship
1st Elimination Final
Cowboys (5th) vs Bulldogs (8th)
Home: Cowboys
Cowboys: 0% to win championship
Bulldogs: 0% to win championship
2nd Elimination Final
Warriors (6th) vs Eels (7th)
Home: Warriors
Warriors: 0% to win championship
Eels: 0% to win championship
Week 2 - Semi Finals
1st Semi Final
Sharks vs Cowboys
Home: Sharks
Most likely based on championship odds
2nd Semi Final
Knights vs Warriors
Home: Knights
Most likely based on championship odds
Week 3 - Preliminary Finals
1st Preliminary Final
Roosters vs Knights
Home: Roosters
Most likely progression
2nd Preliminary Final
Broncos vs Sharks
Home: Broncos
Most likely progression
Week 4 - Grand Final
🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆
Most Likely Grand Final
Roosters vs Broncos
0% to win 0% to win
Neutral Venue
All Championship Contenders
How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.
Ladder Position Distribution
Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

No position distribution data available for this simulation.

Remaining Fixtures by Team
Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
7 Knights Home
66%
Moderate
8 Eels Away
78%
Easy
9 Cowboys Away
75%
Easy
10 Raiders Home
85%
Easy
11 Sharks Home
73%
Easy

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
8 Knights Away
46%
Hard
9 Bulldogs Home
82%
Easy
10 Warriors Away
66%
Moderate
11 Cowboys Home
83%
Easy

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
7 Roosters Away
33%
Very Hard
8 Broncos Home
53%
Hard
9 Sharks Away
50%
Hard
10 Titans Home
82%
Easy
11 Dragons Home
82%
Easy

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
8 Warriors Away
53%
Hard
9 Knights Home
49%
Hard
10 Bulldogs Away
58%
Hard
11 Roosters Away
26%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
7 Bulldogs Home
56%
Hard
8 Wests Tigers Away
55%
Hard
9 Roosters Home
24%
Very Hard
10 Dragons Away
44%
Hard
11 Broncos Away
16%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
8 Sharks Home
46%
Hard
9 Dragons Away
52%
Hard
10 Broncos Home
33%
Very Hard
11 Wests Tigers Away
62%
Moderate

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
8 Roosters Home
21%
Very Hard
9 Titans Away
40%
Hard
10 Wests Tigers Home
67%
Moderate
11 Bulldogs Home
52%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
7 Cowboys Away
43%
Hard
8 Raiders Home
75%
Easy
9 Broncos Away
17%
Very Hard
10 Sharks Home
41%
Hard
11 Eels Away
47%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
8 Dragons Home
59%
Hard
9 Eels Home
59%
Hard
10 Knights Away
17%
Very Hard
11 Raiders Home
72%
Easy

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
7 Wests Tigers Away
52%
Hard
8 Titans Away
40%
Hard
9 Warriors Home
47%
Hard
10 Cowboys Home
55%
Hard
11 Knights Away
17%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
8 Bulldogs Away
24%
Very Hard
9 Wests Tigers Home
54%
Hard
10 Roosters Away
15%
Very Hard
11 Titans Away
27%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
7 Dragons Home
47%
Hard
8 Cowboys Home
44%
Hard
9 Raiders Away
45%
Hard
10 Eels Away
32%
Very Hard
11 Warriors Home
37%
Very Hard
Round 7 Predictions (27 total matches across 5 rounds)
Home Team Home Elo Away Team Away Elo Home Win %
Wests Tigers 1355 Dragons 1431 47%
Roosters 1705 Knights 1645 66%
Cowboys 1448 Bulldogs 1463 56%