Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Aug 10, 2025 10:50
Current Round:: Round 6
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	D	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	9.8	1.2	0.0	21.6	298.8	171.5	127.3	93%	100%	100%	67%	0%	0%
2	Broncos	8.5	2.5	0.0	19.0	314.7	185.7	129.0	71%	99%	99%	23%	0%	0%
3	Knights	8.1	2.9	0.0	18.2	270.6	173.3	97.3	34%	96%	99%	9%	0%	0%
4	Warriors	5.9	5.1	0.0	13.7	179.0	175.9	3.2	0%	26%	64%	0%	0%	0%
5	Eels	5.7	5.3	0.0	13.4	175.8	180.4	-4.6	0%	20%	57%	0%	0%	0%
6	Sharks	5.5	5.5	0.0	13.0	243.7	192.9	50.8	0%	28%	61%	0%	0%	0%
7	Cowboys	5.3	5.7	0.0	12.5	162.0	157.1	4.8	0%	14%	47%	0%	0%	0%
8	Titans	4.3	5.7	1.0	11.7	139.3	189.8	-50.5	0%	6%	26%	0%	0%	0%
9	Bulldogs	4.3	5.7	1.0	11.7	170.9	208.0	-37.1	0%	8%	32%	0%	0%	0%
10	Dragons	4.2	6.8	0.0	10.3	151.4	184.5	-33.1	0%	0%	10%	0%	0%	0%
11	Wests Tigers	2.0	9.0	0.0	6.1	101.0	206.1	-105.0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	24%
12	Raiders	1.4	9.6	0.0	4.8	105.4	287.4	-182.0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	74%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Roosters (1st) vs Warriors (4th)

Home: Roosters

Roosters: 0% to win championship
Warriors: 0% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Broncos (2nd) vs Knights (3rd)

Home: Broncos

Broncos: 0% to win championship
Knights: 0% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Eels (5th) vs Titans (8th)

Home: Eels

Eels: 0% to win championship
Titans: 0% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Sharks (6th) vs Cowboys (7th)

Home: Sharks

Sharks: 0% to win championship
Cowboys: 0% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Warriors vs Eels

Home: Warriors

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Knights vs Sharks

Home: Knights

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Roosters vs Knights

Home: Roosters

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Broncos vs Warriors

Home: Broncos

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Roosters vs Broncos

0% to win 0% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

No position distribution data available for this simulation.

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
7	Knights	Home	66%	Moderate
8	Eels	Away	75%	Easy
9	Cowboys	Away	77%	Easy
10	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
11	Sharks	Home	74%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
7	Eels	Home	82%	Easy
8	Knights	Away	44%	Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	81%	Easy
10	Warriors	Away	62%	Moderate
11	Cowboys	Home	83%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
7	Roosters	Away	33%	Very Hard
8	Broncos	Home	55%	Hard
9	Sharks	Away	51%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	81%	Easy
11	Dragons	Home	82%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
7	Raiders	Home	82%	Easy
8	Sharks	Home	49%	Hard
9	Dragons	Away	54%	Hard
10	Broncos	Home	37%	Very Hard
11	Wests Tigers	Away	65%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Cowboys	Home	60%	Moderate
7	Broncos	Away	17%	Very Hard
8	Roosters	Home	24%	Very Hard
9	Titans	Away	43%	Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Home	70%	Easy
11	Bulldogs	Home	56%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
7	Titans	Home	75%	Easy
8	Warriors	Away	50%	Hard
9	Knights	Home	48%	Hard
10	Bulldogs	Away	58%	Hard
11	Roosters	Away	25%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Eels	Away	39%	Very Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	54%	Hard
8	Wests Tigers	Away	53%	Hard
9	Roosters	Home	22%	Very Hard
10	Dragons	Away	42%	Hard
11	Broncos	Away	16%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
7	Sharks	Away	24%	Very Hard
8	Dragons	Home	59%	Hard
9	Eels	Home	56%	Hard
10	Knights	Away	18%	Very Hard
11	Raiders	Home	74%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
7	Cowboys	Away	45%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	77%	Easy
9	Broncos	Away	18%	Very Hard
10	Sharks	Home	41%	Hard
11	Eels	Away	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
7	Wests Tigers	Away	52%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	40%	Hard
9	Warriors	Home	45%	Hard
10	Cowboys	Home	57%	Hard
11	Knights	Away	17%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
7	Dragons	Home	47%	Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	46%	Hard
9	Raiders	Away	48%	Hard
10	Eels	Away	29%	Very Hard
11	Warriors	Home	34%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
7	Warriors	Away	17%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	22%	Very Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Home	51%	Hard
10	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
11	Titans	Away	25%	Very Hard

Round 10 Predictions (31 total matches across 6 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Roosters	1705	Raiders	1310	85%
Dragons	1431	Cowboys	1436	57%
Bulldogs	1463	Sharks	1577	41%
Warriors	1519	Broncos	1662	37%
Knights	1645	Titans	1443	81%
Eels	1452	Wests Tigers	1355	70%

Round 5 of 6 (6 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Finals Bracket Preview

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Week 2 - Semi Finals

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

Week 4 - Grand Final

Most Likely Grand Final

All Championship Contenders

Ladder Position Distribution

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 5 games remaining Expected: 3.8 wins 76% win rate

Broncos 5 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 71% win rate

Knights 5 games remaining Expected: 3.1 wins 61% win rate

Warriors 5 games remaining Expected: 2.9 wins 58% win rate

Eels 6 games remaining Expected: 2.7 wins 46% win rate

Sharks 5 games remaining Expected: 2.6 wins 51% win rate

Cowboys 6 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 38% win rate

Titans 5 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 47% win rate

Bulldogs 5 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 45% win rate

Dragons 5 games remaining Expected: 2.1 wins 43% win rate

Wests Tigers 5 games remaining Expected: 2.1 wins 41% win rate

Raiders 5 games remaining Expected: 1.3 wins 27% win rate

Round 10 Predictions (31 total matches across 6 rounds)