Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2026
Run Date:: Jul 26, 2026 12:45
Current Round:: Round 4
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	9.4	1.6	18.7	263.1	167.0	96.1	49%	38%	0%
2	Broncos	8.7	2.3	17.5	333.3	216.4	116.9	46%	32%	0%
3	Knights	7.0	4.0	14.0	224.4	169.3	55.2	0%	14%	0%
4	Titans	6.6	4.4	13.1	314.7	246.3	68.5	2%	6%	0%
5	Warriors	6.4	4.6	12.8	263.9	229.2	34.7	1%	4%	0%
6	Raiders	5.5	5.5	11.1	231.8	205.2	26.6	0%	1%	0%
7	Sharks	5.1	5.9	10.2	173.8	178.9	-5.1	0%	1%	0%
8	Bulldogs	5.1	5.9	10.2	187.6	215.2	-27.5	0%	1%	0%
9	Wests Tigers	4.8	6.2	9.5	201.7	254.5	-52.9	0%	0%	0%
10	Dragons	3.4	7.6	6.9	120.1	196.0	-75.9	0%	0%	6%
11	Eels	2.1	8.9	4.2	127.0	214.1	-87.1	0%	0%	28%
12	Cowboys	1.8	9.2	3.7	94.7	244.0	-149.4	0%	0%	64%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Roosters (1st) vs Titans (4th)

Home: Roosters

Roosters: 38% to win championship
Titans: 6% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Broncos (2nd) vs Knights (3rd)

Home: Broncos

Broncos: 32% to win championship
Knights: 14% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Warriors (5th) vs Bulldogs (8th)

Home: Warriors

Warriors: 4% to win championship
Bulldogs: 1% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Raiders (6th) vs Sharks (7th)

Home: Raiders

Raiders: 1% to win championship
Sharks: 1% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Titans vs Warriors

Home: Titans

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Knights vs Raiders

Home: Knights

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Roosters vs Knights

Home: Roosters

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Broncos vs Titans

Home: Broncos

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Roosters vs Broncos

38% to win 32% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

Roosters 38%

Broncos 32%

Knights 14%

Titans 6%

Warriors 4%

Raiders 1%

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th
Roosters	49%	38%	9%	2%	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-
Broncos	46%	34%	10%	5%	2%	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-
Knights	0%	10%	30%	24%	16%	9%	4%	2%	1%	0%	-	-
Titans	2%	9%	24%	24%	17%	8%	7%	4%	2%	0%	-	-
Warriors	1%	4%	14%	19%	21%	18%	10%	7%	1%	0%	-	-
Raiders	0%	1%	6%	11%	17%	19%	18%	13%	8%	2%	0%	0%
Sharks	-	-	1%	5%	9%	17%	24%	19%	14%	6%	1%	0%
Bulldogs	-	0%	1%	3%	8%	13%	18%	25%	20%	6%	1%	0%
Wests Tigers	-	0%	1%	3%	4%	10%	13%	16%	27%	16%	5%	0%
Dragons	-	0%	-	0%	0%	1%	2%	8%	18%	39%	22%	6%
Eels	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	1%	3%	20%	44%	28%
Cowboys	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	1%	7%	24%	64%

Reading the table: Each row shows the probability of that team finishing in each position. For example, if a team has 25% in the "1st" column, they finished first in 25% of the 1000 simulated seasons. Each row should sum to approximately 100%.

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Dragons	Away	79%	Easy
6	Eels	Home	85%	Easy
7	Broncos	Away	47%	Hard
8	Warriors	Home	78%	Easy
9	Sharks	Home	78%	Easy
10	Cowboys	Away	85%	Easy
11	Bulldogs	Home	83%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Bulldogs	Away	67%	Moderate
6	Raiders	Away	64%	Moderate
7	Roosters	Home	52%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	58%	Hard
9	Eels	Away	79%	Easy
10	Dragons	Away	75%	Easy
11	Warriors	Home	74%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Eels	Away	75%	Easy
6	Warriors	Away	54%	Hard
7	Raiders	Home	73%	Easy
8	Wests Tigers	Home	80%	Easy
9	Cowboys	Away	78%	Easy
10	Bulldogs	Home	75%	Easy
11	Titans	Home	68%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Warriors	Away	43%	Hard
6	Sharks	Away	43%	Hard
7	Dragons	Home	75%	Easy
8	Broncos	Home	41%	Hard
9	Raiders	Home	64%	Moderate
10	Wests Tigers	Away	58%	Hard
11	Knights	Away	31%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Titans	Home	56%	Hard
6	Knights	Home	45%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	56%	Hard
8	Roosters	Away	21%	Very Hard
9	Dragons	Home	73%	Easy
10	Sharks	Home	58%	Hard
11	Broncos	Away	25%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Cowboys	Home	77%	Easy
6	Broncos	Home	35%	Very Hard
7	Knights	Away	26%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	45%	Hard
9	Titans	Away	35%	Very Hard
10	Eels	Home	74%	Easy
11	Wests Tigers	Away	51%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Wests Tigers	Home	71%	Easy
6	Titans	Home	56%	Hard
7	Cowboys	Away	68%	Moderate
8	Eels	Home	77%	Easy
9	Roosters	Away	21%	Very Hard
10	Warriors	Away	41%	Hard
11	Dragons	Home	73%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Broncos	Home	32%	Very Hard
6	Cowboys	Home	75%	Easy
7	Eels	Away	57%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	54%	Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Away	48%	Hard
10	Knights	Away	24%	Very Hard
11	Roosters	Away	16%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Sharks	Away	28%	Very Hard
6	Dragons	Away	45%	Hard
7	Warriors	Home	43%	Hard
8	Knights	Away	19%	Very Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	51%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	41%	Hard
11	Raiders	Home	48%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Roosters	Home	20%	Very Hard
6	Wests Tigers	Home	54%	Hard
7	Titans	Away	24%	Very Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	67%	Moderate
9	Warriors	Away	26%	Very Hard
10	Broncos	Home	24%	Very Hard
11	Sharks	Away	26%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Knights	Home	24%	Very Hard
6	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	42%	Hard
8	Sharks	Away	22%	Very Hard
9	Broncos	Home	20%	Very Hard
10	Raiders	Away	25%	Very Hard
11	Cowboys	Home	62%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Raiders	Away	22%	Very Hard
6	Bulldogs	Away	24%	Very Hard
7	Sharks	Home	31%	Very Hard
8	Dragons	Away	32%	Very Hard
9	Knights	Home	21%	Very Hard
10	Roosters	Home	15%	Very Hard
11	Eels	Away	37%	Very Hard

Round 9 Predictions (42 total matches across 7 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Titans	1536	Raiders	1492	64%
Roosters	1688	Sharks	1522	78%
Cowboys	1329	Knights	1611	21%
Warriors	1522	Dragons	1399	73%
Eels	1360	Broncos	1652	20%
Wests Tigers	1422	Bulldogs	1469	51%

Round 5 of 7 (6 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Finals Bracket Preview

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Week 2 - Semi Finals

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

Week 4 - Grand Final

Most Likely Grand Final

All Championship Contenders

Ladder Position Distribution

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 7 games remaining Expected: 5.4 wins 77% win rate

Broncos 7 games remaining Expected: 4.7 wins 68% win rate

Knights 7 games remaining Expected: 5.1 wins 72% win rate

Titans 7 games remaining Expected: 3.6 wins 51% win rate

Warriors 7 games remaining Expected: 3.4 wins 48% win rate

Raiders 7 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 50% win rate

Sharks 7 games remaining Expected: 4.1 wins 59% win rate

Bulldogs 7 games remaining Expected: 3.1 wins 44% win rate

Wests Tigers 7 games remaining Expected: 2.8 wins 40% win rate

Dragons 7 games remaining Expected: 2.4 wins 35% win rate

Eels 7 games remaining Expected: 2.1 wins 30% win rate

Cowboys 7 games remaining Expected: 1.8 wins 26% win rate

Round 9 Predictions (42 total matches across 7 rounds)