Season Simulation

Simulation Details
Competition:
Telstra Premiership
Season:
2025
Run Date:
Aug 10, 2025 10:47
Current Round:
Round 23
Iterations:
1000
Parameters
Elo Ratings:
Enabled
Home Advantage:
0.57
Predicted Final Ladder
Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

  • Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
  • Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
  • Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
  • Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
  • Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos Team W L D Pts PF PA Diff Top 2 % Top 4 % Finals % 🥇 % 🏆 % 🥄 %
1 Raiders 18.7 5.3 0.0 45.4 655.2 484.7 170.5 98% 100% 100% 63% 0% 0%
2 Storm 17.7 6.3 0.0 43.3 714.1 456.1 258.0 84% 99% 100% 34% 0% 0%
3 Bulldogs 16.6 7.4 0.0 41.2 563.0 429.1 133.8 15% 98% 100% 2% 0% 0%
4 Panthers 14.5 8.5 1.0 38.0 599.9 473.7 126.2 2% 57% 99% 0% 0% 0%
5 Warriors 14.5 9.5 0.0 37.0 501.3 485.6 15.7 0% 25% 95% 0% 0% 0%
6 Sharks 14.1 9.9 0.0 36.2 537.1 493.1 44.0 0% 12% 95% 0% 0% 0%
7 Broncos 13.1 10.9 0.0 34.2 620.3 514.6 105.7 0% 4% 81% 0% 0% 0%
8 Roosters 12.6 11.4 0.0 33.2 619.6 538.0 81.7 0% 0% 57% 0% 0% 0%
9 Dolphins 12.4 11.6 0.0 32.7 659.8 535.5 124.3 0% 0% 65% 0% 0% 0%
10 Sea Eagles 11.1 12.9 0.0 30.2 499.5 508.1 -8.5 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
11 Dragons 9.6 14.4 0.0 27.3 519.0 574.8 -55.8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
12 Wests Tigers 9.5 14.5 0.0 27.1 450.1 578.0 -127.9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
13 Cowboys 9.0 14.0 1.0 27.0 485.9 663.1 -177.2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
14 Rabbitohs 8.1 15.9 0.0 24.2 403.5 604.2 -200.6 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5%
15 Eels 8.1 15.9 0.0 24.1 419.8 579.4 -159.7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9%
16 Knights 7.3 16.7 0.0 22.6 349.3 511.7 -162.4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21%
17 Titans 6.2 17.8 0.0 20.3 477.3 645.0 -167.7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 63%
Finals Bracket Preview
Based on current average ladder positions
Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals
1st Qualifying Final
Raiders (1st) vs Panthers (4th)
Home: Raiders
Raiders: 0% to win championship
Panthers: 0% to win championship
2nd Qualifying Final
Storm (2nd) vs Bulldogs (3rd)
Home: Storm
Storm: 0% to win championship
Bulldogs: 0% to win championship
1st Elimination Final
Warriors (5th) vs Roosters (8th)
Home: Warriors
Warriors: 0% to win championship
Roosters: 0% to win championship
2nd Elimination Final
Sharks (6th) vs Broncos (7th)
Home: Sharks
Sharks: 0% to win championship
Broncos: 0% to win championship
Week 2 - Semi Finals
1st Semi Final
Panthers vs Roosters
Home: Panthers
Most likely based on championship odds
2nd Semi Final
Bulldogs vs Sharks
Home: Bulldogs
Most likely based on championship odds
Week 3 - Preliminary Finals
1st Preliminary Final
Raiders vs Bulldogs
Home: Raiders
Most likely progression
2nd Preliminary Final
Storm vs Panthers
Home: Storm
Most likely progression
Week 4 - Grand Final
🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆
Most Likely Grand Final
Raiders vs Storm
0% to win 0% to win
Neutral Venue
All Championship Contenders
How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.
Ladder Position Distribution
Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

No position distribution data available for this simulation.

Remaining Fixtures by Team
Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
25 Panthers Away
32%
Very Hard
26 Wests Tigers Home
84%
Easy
27 Dolphins Away
49%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
24 Panthers Away
50%
Hard
25 Bulldogs Home
76%
Easy
26 Roosters Home
68%
Moderate
27 Broncos Away
67%
Moderate

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
24 Roosters Away
32%
Very Hard
25 Storm Away
23%
Very Hard
26 Panthers Home
45%
Hard
27 Sharks Home
60%
Moderate

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
24 Storm Home
49%
Hard
25 Raiders Home
67%
Moderate
26 Bulldogs Away
54%
Hard
27 Dragons Away
74%
Easy

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
24 Dragons Home
67%
Moderate
25 Titans Away
65%
Moderate
26 Eels Home
73%
Easy
27 Sea Eagles Away
46%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
24 Titans Home
84%
Easy
26 Knights Home
80%
Easy
27 Bulldogs Away
39%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
24 Dolphins Home
57%
Hard
25 Knights Away
65%
Moderate
26 Cowboys Away
61%
Moderate
27 Storm Home
32%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
24 Bulldogs Home
67%
Moderate
25 Eels Away
77%
Easy
26 Storm Away
31%
Very Hard
27 Rabbitohs Home
85%
Easy

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
24 Broncos Away
42%
Hard
25 Sea Eagles Away
53%
Hard
26 Titans Home
83%
Easy
27 Raiders Home
50%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
24 Wests Tigers Away
56%
Hard
25 Dolphins Home
46%
Hard
26 Dragons Away
47%
Hard
27 Warriors Home
53%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
24 Warriors Away
32%
Very Hard
25 Rabbitohs Away
54%
Hard
26 Sea Eagles Home
52%
Hard
27 Panthers Home
25%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
24 Sea Eagles Home
43%
Hard
25 Cowboys Home
51%
Hard
26 Raiders Away
15%
Very Hard
27 Titans Away
46%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
23 Eels Away
46%
Hard
24 Knights Home
63%
Moderate
25 Wests Tigers Away
48%
Hard
26 Broncos Home
38%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
24 Eels Home
52%
Hard
25 Dragons Home
45%
Hard
27 Roosters Away
15%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
23 Cowboys Home
53%
Hard
24 Rabbitohs Away
47%
Hard
25 Roosters Home
22%
Very Hard
26 Warriors Away
26%
Very Hard
27 Knights Home
58%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
24 Cowboys Away
36%
Very Hard
25 Broncos Home
34%
Very Hard
26 Sharks Away
19%
Very Hard
27 Eels Away
41%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
24 Sharks Away
15%
Very Hard
25 Warriors Home
34%
Very Hard
26 Dolphins Away
16%
Very Hard
27 Wests Tigers Home
53%
Hard
Round 25 Predictions (33 total matches across 5 rounds)
Home Team Home Elo Away Team Away Elo Home Win %
Rabbitohs 1342 Dragons 1428 45%
Panthers 1673 Raiders 1603 67%
Storm 1731 Bulldogs 1581 76%
Sea Eagles 1469 Dolphins 1551 46%
Titans 1329 Warriors 1501 34%
Eels 1380 Roosters 1649 22%
Knights 1375 Broncos 1546 34%
Wests Tigers 1366 Cowboys 1410 51%