Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2026
Run Date:: Jul 25, 2026 06:45
Current Round:: Round 4
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	8.9	2.1	19.9	231.1	172.0	59.0	41%	35%	0%
2	Broncos	8.2	2.8	18.4	336.5	238.4	98.2	39%	27%	0%
3	Knights	7.6	3.4	17.2	258.4	184.1	74.3	14%	23%	0%
4	Titans	6.0	5.0	14.0	299.4	259.0	40.4	2%	3%	0%
5	Warriors	6.0	5.0	14.0	285.5	252.4	33.2	1%	4%	0%
6	Raiders	5.5	5.5	13.0	231.1	205.6	25.6	0%	1%	0%
7	Wests Tigers	5.3	5.7	12.7	234.0	248.2	-14.2	0%	0%	0%
8	Sharks	5.0	6.0	12.1	176.5	182.0	-5.5	0%	1%	0%
9	Bulldogs	3.9	6.1	11.8	143.8	194.8	-51.0	0%	0%	1%
10	Dragons	3.5	6.5	11.1	118.4	172.5	-54.1	0%	0%	2%
11	Eels	2.5	8.5	7.1	129.9	215.9	-86.0	0%	0%	34%
12	Cowboys	2.4	8.6	6.8	104.9	224.7	-119.8	0%	0%	60%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Roosters (1st) vs Titans (4th)

Home: Roosters

Roosters: 35% to win championship
Titans: 3% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Broncos (2nd) vs Knights (3rd)

Home: Broncos

Broncos: 27% to win championship
Knights: 23% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Warriors (5th) vs Sharks (8th)

Home: Warriors

Warriors: 4% to win championship
Sharks: 1% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Raiders (6th) vs Wests Tigers (7th)

Home: Raiders

Raiders: 1% to win championship
Wests Tigers: 0% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Titans vs Warriors

Home: Titans

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Knights vs Raiders

Home: Knights

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Roosters vs Knights

Home: Roosters

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Broncos vs Titans

Home: Broncos

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Roosters vs Broncos

35% to win 27% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

Roosters 35%

Broncos 27%

Knights 23%

Titans 3%

Warriors 4%

Raiders 1%

Sharks 1%

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th
Roosters	41%	30%	17%	6%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%	-	-	-
Broncos	39%	27%	18%	7%	4%	2%	0%	0%	0%	-	-	-
Knights	14%	28%	28%	13%	7%	3%	2%	0%	0%	0%	-	-
Titans	2%	4%	12%	19%	17%	14%	11%	7%	5%	3%	0%	0%
Warriors	1%	5%	10%	19%	17%	14%	12%	6%	6%	3%	1%	-
Raiders	0%	1%	6%	14%	16%	15%	17%	11%	10%	5%	0%	0%
Wests Tigers	0%	1%	4%	8%	12%	13%	14%	17%	13%	11%	3%	0%
Sharks	-	0%	1%	5%	10%	16%	18%	18%	14%	11%	3%	0%
Bulldogs	-	0%	1%	3%	5%	10%	12%	18%	19%	18%	8%	1%
Dragons	-	0%	0%	2%	4%	7%	8%	14%	21%	28%	10%	2%
Eels	-	-	-	0%	0%	1%	1%	2%	4%	12%	43%	34%
Cowboys	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%	2%	6%	27%	60%

Reading the table: Each row shows the probability of that team finishing in each position. For example, if a team has 25% in the "1st" column, they finished first in 25% of the 1000 simulated seasons. Each row should sum to approximately 100%.

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Wests Tigers	Away	71%	Easy
5	Dragons	Away	74%	Easy
6	Eels	Home	85%	Easy
7	Broncos	Away	46%	Hard
8	Warriors	Home	76%	Easy
9	Sharks	Home	75%	Easy
10	Cowboys	Away	81%	Easy
11	Bulldogs	Home	82%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Knights	Home	58%	Hard
5	Bulldogs	Away	67%	Moderate
6	Raiders	Away	61%	Moderate
7	Roosters	Home	53%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	58%	Hard
9	Eels	Away	76%	Easy
10	Dragons	Away	71%	Easy
11	Warriors	Home	72%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Broncos	Away	41%	Hard
5	Eels	Away	76%	Easy
6	Warriors	Away	58%	Hard
7	Raiders	Home	75%	Easy
8	Wests Tigers	Home	80%	Easy
9	Cowboys	Away	78%	Easy
10	Bulldogs	Home	79%	Easy
11	Titans	Home	73%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Cowboys	Away	64%	Moderate
5	Warriors	Away	41%	Hard
6	Sharks	Away	40%	Hard
7	Dragons	Home	70%	Easy
8	Broncos	Home	41%	Hard
9	Raiders	Home	60%	Moderate
10	Wests Tigers	Away	51%	Hard
11	Knights	Away	26%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Eels	Away	63%	Moderate
5	Titans	Home	58%	Hard
6	Knights	Home	41%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	51%	Hard
8	Roosters	Away	23%	Very Hard
9	Dragons	Home	70%	Easy
10	Sharks	Home	57%	Hard
11	Broncos	Away	27%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Cowboys	Home	75%	Easy
6	Broncos	Home	38%	Very Hard
7	Knights	Away	24%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	47%	Hard
9	Titans	Away	39%	Very Hard
10	Eels	Home	74%	Easy
11	Wests Tigers	Away	48%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Roosters	Home	28%	Very Hard
5	Sharks	Away	31%	Very Hard
6	Dragons	Away	45%	Hard
7	Warriors	Home	48%	Hard
8	Knights	Away	19%	Very Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	57%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	48%	Hard
11	Raiders	Home	51%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Wests Tigers	Home	68%	Moderate
6	Titans	Home	59%	Hard
7	Cowboys	Away	65%	Moderate
8	Eels	Home	77%	Easy
9	Roosters	Away	24%	Very Hard
10	Warriors	Away	42%	Hard
11	Dragons	Home	71%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Broncos	Home	32%	Very Hard
6	Cowboys	Home	70%	Easy
7	Eels	Away	53%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	52%	Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Away	42%	Hard
10	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard
11	Roosters	Away	17%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Roosters	Home	25%	Very Hard
6	Wests Tigers	Home	54%	Hard
7	Titans	Away	29%	Very Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	66%	Moderate
9	Warriors	Away	29%	Very Hard
10	Broncos	Home	28%	Very Hard
11	Sharks	Away	28%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Warriors	Home	36%	Very Hard
5	Knights	Home	23%	Very Hard
6	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	46%	Hard
8	Sharks	Away	22%	Very Hard
9	Broncos	Home	23%	Very Hard
10	Raiders	Away	25%	Very Hard
11	Cowboys	Home	59%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Titans	Home	35%	Very Hard
5	Raiders	Away	24%	Very Hard
6	Bulldogs	Away	29%	Very Hard
7	Sharks	Home	34%	Very Hard
8	Dragons	Away	33%	Very Hard
9	Knights	Home	21%	Very Hard
10	Roosters	Home	18%	Very Hard
11	Eels	Away	40%	Hard

Round 6 Predictions (46 total matches across 8 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Bulldogs	1449	Cowboys	1353	70%
Sharks	1522	Titans	1512	59%
Warriors	1516	Knights	1631	41%
Raiders	1492	Broncos	1632	38%
Dragons	1418	Wests Tigers	1447	54%
Roosters	1663	Eels	1366	85%

Round 3 of 8 (6 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Finals Bracket Preview

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Week 2 - Semi Finals

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

Week 4 - Grand Final

Most Likely Grand Final

All Championship Contenders

Ladder Position Distribution

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 8 games remaining Expected: 5.9 wins 74% win rate

Broncos 8 games remaining Expected: 5.2 wins 65% win rate

Knights 8 games remaining Expected: 5.6 wins 70% win rate

Titans 8 games remaining Expected: 4.0 wins 50% win rate

Warriors 8 games remaining Expected: 3.9 wins 49% win rate

Raiders 7 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 50% win rate

Wests Tigers 8 games remaining Expected: 3.3 wins 42% win rate

Sharks 7 games remaining Expected: 4.1 wins 58% win rate

Bulldogs 7 games remaining Expected: 2.9 wins 41% win rate

Dragons 7 games remaining Expected: 2.6 wins 37% win rate

Eels 8 games remaining Expected: 2.5 wins 32% win rate

Cowboys 8 games remaining Expected: 2.4 wins 30% win rate

Round 6 Predictions (46 total matches across 8 rounds)