Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Premiership
Season:: 2026
Run Date:: Jul 24, 2026 12:45
Current Round:: Round 21
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Panthers	18.7	5.3	45.3	685.3	375.6	309.7	88%	44%	0%
2	Roosters	16.7	7.3	41.5	584.3	488.0	96.3	4%	15%	0%
3	Warriors	16.5	7.5	40.9	667.9	452.0	216.0	6%	12%	0%
4	Sharks	16.4	7.6	40.7	645.2	492.0	153.2	1%	22%	0%
5	Dolphins	14.7	9.3	37.4	612.5	517.5	95.0	0%	3%	0%
6	Cowboys	13.9	10.1	35.8	539.5	562.2	-22.6	0%	0%	0%
7	Knights	13.7	10.3	35.5	589.6	549.8	39.8	0%	1%	0%
8	Rabbitohs	13.1	10.9	34.2	647.9	567.8	80.0	0%	0%	0%
9	Sea Eagles	12.3	11.7	32.6	612.8	482.6	130.2	0%	0%	0%
10	Bulldogs	10.7	13.3	29.4	443.4	525.1	-81.7	0%	0%	0%
11	Raiders	10.5	13.5	29.1	484.6	572.5	-87.9	0%	0%	0%
12	Storm	10.3	13.7	28.7	549.0	563.6	-14.6	0%	0%	0%
13	Wests Tigers	8.8	15.2	25.7	438.2	617.8	-179.6	0%	0%	0%
14	Broncos	8.2	15.8	24.3	443.9	588.4	-144.6	0%	0%	0%
15	Eels	7.9	16.1	23.9	439.8	638.0	-198.2	0%	0%	0%
16	Titans	7.3	16.7	22.5	455.4	580.5	-125.1	0%	0%	1%
17	Dragons	4.3	19.7	16.5	343.9	609.8	-265.9	0%	0%	97%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Panthers (1st) vs Sharks (4th)

Home: Panthers

Panthers: 44% to win championship
Sharks: 22% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Roosters (2nd) vs Warriors (3rd)

Home: Roosters

Roosters: 15% to win championship
Warriors: 12% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Dolphins (5th) vs Rabbitohs (8th)

Home: Dolphins

Dolphins: 3% to win championship
Rabbitohs: 0% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Cowboys (6th) vs Knights (7th)

Home: Cowboys

Cowboys: 0% to win championship
Knights: 1% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Sharks vs Dolphins

Home: Sharks

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Warriors vs Cowboys

Home: Warriors

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Panthers vs Warriors

Home: Panthers

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Roosters vs Sharks

Home: Roosters

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Panthers vs Roosters

44% to win 15% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

Panthers 44%

Roosters 15%

Warriors 12%

Sharks 22%

Dolphins 3%

Knights 1%

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	13th	14th	15th	16th	17th
Panthers	88%	7%	3%	1%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Roosters	4%	24%	28%	28%	11%	3%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Warriors	6%	40%	25%	18%	5%	2%	1%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Sharks	1%	25%	36%	27%	6%	2%	0%	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Dolphins	0%	1%	5%	15%	38%	20%	11%	6%	2%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Cowboys	-	-	0%	2%	12%	21%	24%	23%	12%	2%	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-
Knights	-	-	0%	3%	10%	24%	25%	18%	14%	2%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-
Rabbitohs	-	0%	0%	2%	9%	17%	21%	22%	20%	4%	1%	0%	-	-	-	-	-
Sea Eagles	-	-	0%	0%	5%	9%	14%	22%	30%	10%	4%	1%	0%	-	-	-	-
Bulldogs	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	2%	8%	25%	26%	27%	6%	2%	0%	0%	-
Raiders	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	1%	4%	21%	30%	29%	8%	2%	0%	0%	-
Storm	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1%	7%	30%	30%	21%	7%	2%	0%	-	-
Wests Tigers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0%	1%	2%	8%	31%	27%	20%	8%	-
Broncos	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0%	1%	2%	6%	21%	27%	21%	18%	0%
Eels	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	3%	12%	19%	30%	33%	0%
Titans	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	2%	11%	19%	25%	37%	1%
Dragons	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	1%	97%

Reading the table: Each row shows the probability of that team finishing in each position. For example, if a team has 25% in the "1st" column, they finished first in 25% of the 1000 simulated seasons. Each row should sum to approximately 100%.

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
23	Warriors	Away	61%	Moderate
24	Roosters	Home	74%	Easy
25	Storm	Away	74%	Easy
26	Bulldogs	Home	85%	Easy
27	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Cowboys	Away	58%	Hard
23	Bulldogs	Home	81%	Easy
24	Panthers	Away	25%	Very Hard
25	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
26	Dolphins	Home	68%	Moderate
27	Rabbitohs	Away	57%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Bulldogs	Away	68%	Moderate
22	Titans	Away	75%	Easy
23	Panthers	Home	38%	Very Hard
24	Broncos	Away	73%	Easy
25	Rabbitohs	Away	55%	Hard
26	Knights	Home	70%	Easy
27	Sea Eagles	Home	63%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Sea Eagles	Away	53%	Hard
22	Rabbitohs	Home	76%	Easy
23	Dragons	Away	85%	Easy
24	Raiders	Home	83%	Easy
25	Titans	Away	80%	Easy
26	Eels	Away	81%	Easy
27	Storm	Home	76%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Dragons	Away	77%	Easy
23	Broncos	Home	78%	Easy
24	Sea Eagles	Away	37%	Very Hard
25	Eels	Home	81%	Easy
26	Roosters	Away	31%	Very Hard
27	Titans	Away	68%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Broncos	Home	73%	Easy
22	Roosters	Home	41%	Hard
23	Titans	Away	62%	Moderate
24	Eels	Away	64%	Moderate
26	Wests Tigers	Home	81%	Easy
27	Raiders	Home	66%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Broncos	Away	61%	Moderate
23	Raiders	Away	53%	Hard
24	Titans	Home	77%	Easy
25	Sea Eagles	Home	49%	Hard
26	Warriors	Away	29%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Sharks	Away	23%	Very Hard
23	Eels	Home	78%	Easy
24	Bulldogs	Away	55%	Hard
25	Warriors	Home	44%	Hard
26	Titans	Away	64%	Moderate
27	Roosters	Home	42%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Sharks	Home	46%	Hard
23	Storm	Away	50%	Hard
24	Dolphins	Home	62%	Moderate
25	Knights	Away	50%	Hard
26	Dragons	Home	85%	Easy
27	Warriors	Away	36%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Warriors	Home	31%	Very Hard
22	Storm	Away	29%	Very Hard
23	Roosters	Away	18%	Very Hard
24	Rabbitohs	Home	44%	Hard
25	Dragons	Away	62%	Moderate
26	Panthers	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Broncos	Home	64%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Wests Tigers	Home	75%	Easy
22	Panthers	Away	15%	Very Hard
23	Knights	Home	46%	Hard
24	Sharks	Away	16%	Very Hard
25	Broncos	Home	65%	Moderate
27	Cowboys	Away	33%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Bulldogs	Home	70%	Easy
23	Sea Eagles	Home	49%	Hard
25	Panthers	Home	25%	Very Hard
26	Broncos	Away	60%	Moderate
27	Sharks	Away	23%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Raiders	Away	24%	Very Hard
22	Eels	Home	52%	Hard
24	Dragons	Home	61%	Moderate
25	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
26	Cowboys	Away	18%	Very Hard
27	Panthers	Away	15%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Cowboys	Away	26%	Very Hard
22	Knights	Home	38%	Very Hard
23	Dolphins	Away	21%	Very Hard
24	Warriors	Home	26%	Very Hard
25	Raiders	Away	34%	Very Hard
26	Storm	Home	39%	Very Hard
27	Bulldogs	Away	35%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Wests Tigers	Away	47%	Hard
23	Rabbitohs	Away	21%	Very Hard
24	Cowboys	Home	35%	Very Hard
25	Dolphins	Away	18%	Very Hard
26	Sharks	Home	18%	Very Hard
27	Dragons	Away	51%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Dragons	Away	53%	Hard
22	Warriors	Home	24%	Very Hard
23	Cowboys	Home	37%	Very Hard
24	Knights	Away	22%	Very Hard
25	Sharks	Home	19%	Very Hard
26	Rabbitohs	Home	35%	Very Hard
27	Dolphins	Home	31%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Titans	Home	46%	Hard
22	Dolphins	Home	22%	Very Hard
23	Sharks	Home	15%	Very Hard
24	Wests Tigers	Away	38%	Very Hard
25	Bulldogs	Home	37%	Very Hard
26	Sea Eagles	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Eels	Home	48%	Hard

Round 25 Predictions (53 total matches across 7 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Storm	1523	Panthers	1762	25%
Raiders	1447	Broncos	1389	65%
Dolphins	1557	Eels	1353	81%
Knights	1526	Sea Eagles	1586	49%
Rabbitohs	1525	Warriors	1621	44%
Dragons	1287	Bulldogs	1433	37%
Titans	1366	Sharks	1671	19%
Roosters	1631	Wests Tigers	1311	85%

Round 5 of 7 (8 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Finals Bracket Preview

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Week 2 - Semi Finals

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

Week 4 - Grand Final

Most Likely Grand Final

All Championship Contenders

Ladder Position Distribution

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Panthers 6 games remaining Expected: 4.7 wins 78% win rate

Roosters 6 games remaining Expected: 3.8 wins 63% win rate

Warriors 7 games remaining Expected: 4.4 wins 64% win rate

Sharks 7 games remaining Expected: 5.4 wins 77% win rate

Dolphins 6 games remaining Expected: 3.8 wins 63% win rate

Cowboys 6 games remaining Expected: 3.9 wins 65% win rate

Knights 5 games remaining Expected: 2.7 wins 54% win rate

Rabbitohs 6 games remaining Expected: 3.1 wins 52% win rate

Sea Eagles 6 games remaining Expected: 3.3 wins 55% win rate

Bulldogs 7 games remaining Expected: 2.7 wins 38% win rate

Raiders 6 games remaining Expected: 2.5 wins 42% win rate

Storm 5 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 46% win rate

Wests Tigers 6 games remaining Expected: 1.9 wins 31% win rate

Broncos 7 games remaining Expected: 2.2 wins 32% win rate

Eels 6 games remaining Expected: 1.9 wins 32% win rate

Titans 7 games remaining Expected: 2.2 wins 32% win rate

Dragons 7 games remaining Expected: 2.2 wins 32% win rate

Round 25 Predictions (53 total matches across 7 rounds)