Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2026
Run Date:: Jul 19, 2026 06:45
Current Round:: Round 3
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	9.0	2.0	20.0	232.9	172.9	60.0	47%	35%	0%
2	Broncos	8.1	2.9	18.3	337.9	241.0	96.9	38%	30%	0%
3	Knights	7.3	3.7	16.5	215.5	176.5	39.0	7%	17%	0%
4	Raiders	6.3	4.7	14.5	256.1	214.2	41.9	2%	4%	0%
5	Warriors	6.0	5.0	14.0	283.7	250.2	33.5	1%	4%	0%
6	Titans	5.9	5.1	13.8	299.8	261.2	38.6	1%	5%	0%
7	Wests Tigers	5.4	5.7	12.7	236.6	250.4	-13.8	0%	0%	0%
8	Bulldogs	4.5	6.5	11.1	158.7	207.9	-49.2	0%	0%	2%
9	Dragons	4.4	6.6	10.8	159.9	178.1	-18.2	0%	0%	2%
10	Sharks	4.2	6.8	10.5	162.8	185.2	-22.4	0%	1%	3%
11	Eels	2.5	8.5	7.0	127.3	214.1	-86.7	0%	0%	34%
12	Cowboys	2.4	8.6	6.8	104.3	223.9	-119.6	0%	0%	56%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Roosters (1st) vs Raiders (4th)

Home: Roosters

Roosters: 35% to win championship
Raiders: 4% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Broncos (2nd) vs Knights (3rd)

Home: Broncos

Broncos: 30% to win championship
Knights: 17% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Warriors (5th) vs Bulldogs (8th)

Home: Warriors

Warriors: 4% to win championship
Bulldogs: 0% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Titans (6th) vs Wests Tigers (7th)

Home: Titans

Titans: 5% to win championship
Wests Tigers: 0% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Raiders vs Warriors

Home: Raiders

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Knights vs Titans

Home: Knights

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Roosters vs Knights

Home: Roosters

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Broncos vs Raiders

Home: Broncos

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Roosters vs Broncos

35% to win 30% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

Roosters 35%

Broncos 30%

Knights 17%

Raiders 4%

Warriors 4%

Titans 5%

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th
Roosters	47%	29%	13%	5%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	-	-	-
Broncos	38%	28%	15%	8%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%	-	-	-
Knights	7%	19%	23%	19%	12%	10%	5%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Raiders	2%	8%	15%	19%	18%	14%	10%	5%	3%	0%	0%	-
Warriors	1%	5%	12%	15%	19%	15%	13%	8%	4%	2%	0%	0%
Titans	1%	6%	13%	14%	20%	15%	12%	9%	3%	2%	0%	0%
Wests Tigers	0%	1%	3%	8%	9%	16%	15%	16%	14%	10%	2%	0%
Bulldogs	0%	0%	0%	3%	3%	6%	12%	14%	21%	24%	10%	2%
Dragons	0%	0%	1%	2%	5%	10%	13%	20%	18%	17%	8%	2%
Sharks	-	0%	1%	1%	3%	7%	13%	17%	21%	19%	9%	3%
Eels	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	1%	2%	6%	12%	42%	34%
Cowboys	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	2%	4%	9%	26%	56%

Reading the table: Each row shows the probability of that team finishing in each position. For example, if a team has 25% in the "1st" column, they finished first in 25% of the 1000 simulated seasons. Each row should sum to approximately 100%.

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Wests Tigers	Away	71%	Easy
5	Dragons	Away	72%	Easy
6	Eels	Home	85%	Easy
7	Broncos	Away	46%	Hard
8	Warriors	Home	76%	Easy
9	Sharks	Home	77%	Easy
10	Cowboys	Away	81%	Easy
11	Bulldogs	Home	82%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Knights	Home	60%	Moderate
5	Bulldogs	Away	67%	Moderate
6	Raiders	Away	58%	Hard
7	Roosters	Home	53%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	58%	Hard
9	Eels	Away	76%	Easy
10	Dragons	Away	68%	Moderate
11	Warriors	Home	72%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Dragons	Home	79%	Easy
4	Broncos	Away	39%	Very Hard
5	Eels	Away	74%	Easy
6	Warriors	Away	55%	Hard
7	Raiders	Home	71%	Easy
8	Wests Tigers	Home	78%	Easy
9	Cowboys	Away	76%	Easy
10	Bulldogs	Home	78%	Easy
11	Titans	Home	71%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Sharks	Home	59%	Hard
5	Cowboys	Home	77%	Easy
6	Broncos	Home	41%	Hard
7	Knights	Away	28%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	50%	Hard
9	Titans	Away	42%	Hard
10	Eels	Home	76%	Easy
11	Wests Tigers	Away	51%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Eels	Away	63%	Moderate
5	Titans	Home	58%	Hard
6	Knights	Home	44%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	51%	Hard
8	Roosters	Away	23%	Very Hard
9	Dragons	Home	68%	Moderate
10	Sharks	Home	60%	Moderate
11	Broncos	Away	27%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Cowboys	Away	64%	Moderate
5	Warriors	Away	41%	Hard
6	Sharks	Away	43%	Hard
7	Dragons	Home	68%	Moderate
8	Broncos	Home	41%	Hard
9	Raiders	Home	57%	Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Away	51%	Hard
11	Knights	Away	28%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Roosters	Home	28%	Very Hard
5	Sharks	Away	34%	Very Hard
6	Dragons	Away	43%	Hard
7	Warriors	Home	48%	Hard
8	Knights	Away	21%	Very Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	57%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	48%	Hard
11	Raiders	Home	48%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Dragons	Home	59%	Hard
5	Broncos	Home	32%	Very Hard
6	Cowboys	Home	70%	Easy
7	Eels	Away	53%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	49%	Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Away	42%	Hard
10	Knights	Away	21%	Very Hard
11	Roosters	Away	17%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard
4	Bulldogs	Away	40%	Hard
5	Roosters	Home	27%	Very Hard
6	Wests Tigers	Home	56%	Hard
7	Titans	Away	31%	Very Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	69%	Moderate
9	Warriors	Away	31%	Very Hard
10	Broncos	Home	31%	Very Hard
11	Sharks	Away	33%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Raiders	Away	40%	Hard
5	Wests Tigers	Home	65%	Moderate
6	Titans	Home	56%	Hard
7	Cowboys	Away	62%	Moderate
8	Eels	Home	75%	Easy
9	Roosters	Away	22%	Very Hard
10	Warriors	Away	39%	Very Hard
11	Dragons	Home	66%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Warriors	Home	36%	Very Hard
5	Knights	Home	25%	Very Hard
6	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	46%	Hard
8	Sharks	Away	24%	Very Hard
9	Broncos	Home	23%	Very Hard
10	Raiders	Away	23%	Very Hard
11	Cowboys	Home	59%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Titans	Home	35%	Very Hard
5	Raiders	Away	22%	Very Hard
6	Bulldogs	Away	29%	Very Hard
7	Sharks	Home	37%	Very Hard
8	Dragons	Away	30%	Very Hard
9	Knights	Home	23%	Very Hard
10	Roosters	Home	18%	Very Hard
11	Eels	Away	40%	Hard

Round 6 Predictions (49 total matches across 9 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Bulldogs	1449	Cowboys	1353	70%
Sharks	1501	Titans	1512	56%
Warriors	1516	Knights	1613	44%
Raiders	1513	Broncos	1632	41%
Dragons	1436	Wests Tigers	1447	56%
Roosters	1663	Eels	1366	85%

Round 4 of 9 (6 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Finals Bracket Preview

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Week 2 - Semi Finals

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

Week 4 - Grand Final

Most Likely Grand Final

All Championship Contenders

Ladder Position Distribution

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 8 games remaining Expected: 5.9 wins 74% win rate

Broncos 8 games remaining Expected: 5.2 wins 65% win rate

Knights 9 games remaining Expected: 6.2 wins 69% win rate

Raiders 8 games remaining Expected: 4.3 wins 54% win rate

Warriors 8 games remaining Expected: 4.0 wins 50% win rate

Titans 8 games remaining Expected: 4.0 wins 50% win rate

Wests Tigers 8 games remaining Expected: 3.3 wins 41% win rate

Bulldogs 8 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 43% win rate

Dragons 9 games remaining Expected: 3.4 wins 38% win rate

Sharks 8 games remaining Expected: 4.3 wins 54% win rate

Eels 8 games remaining Expected: 2.5 wins 32% win rate

Cowboys 8 games remaining Expected: 2.4 wins 30% win rate

Round 6 Predictions (49 total matches across 9 rounds)