Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2026
Run Date:: Jul 12, 2026 06:45
Current Round:: Round 2
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	8.5	2.5	16.9	243.0	187.5	55.5	37%	37%	0%
2	Broncos	7.9	3.1	15.8	319.8	246.6	73.2	35%	25%	0%
3	Knights	7.2	3.8	14.4	209.7	172.5	37.2	11%	19%	0%
4	Raiders	6.8	4.2	13.6	282.6	236.3	46.3	11%	8%	0%
5	Wests Tigers	5.8	5.2	11.6	276.9	263.7	13.3	1%	2%	0%
6	Warriors	5.4	5.6	10.9	222.8	228.4	-5.6	1%	2%	1%
7	Titans	5.3	5.7	10.6	225.1	226.2	-1.1	0%	1%	1%
8	Sharks	4.9	6.1	9.8	151.4	165.3	-13.8	0%	2%	4%
9	Dragons	4.5	6.5	9.0	158.2	175.3	-17.1	0%	0%	4%
10	Bulldogs	3.7	7.3	7.5	129.7	188.8	-59.1	0%	0%	19%
11	Eels	3.1	7.9	6.2	132.5	179.3	-46.8	0%	0%	24%
12	Cowboys	2.9	8.1	5.7	114.3	196.3	-82.0	0%	0%	45%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Roosters (1st) vs Raiders (4th)

Home: Roosters

Roosters: 37% to win championship
Raiders: 8% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Broncos (2nd) vs Knights (3rd)

Home: Broncos

Broncos: 25% to win championship
Knights: 19% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Wests Tigers (5th) vs Sharks (8th)

Home: Wests Tigers

Wests Tigers: 2% to win championship
Sharks: 2% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Warriors (6th) vs Titans (7th)

Home: Warriors

Warriors: 2% to win championship
Titans: 1% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Raiders vs Wests Tigers

Home: Raiders

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Knights vs Warriors

Home: Knights

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Roosters vs Knights

Home: Roosters

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Broncos vs Raiders

Home: Broncos

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Roosters vs Broncos

37% to win 25% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

Roosters 37%

Broncos 25%

Knights 19%

Raiders 8%

Wests Tigers 2%

Warriors 2%

Titans 1%

Sharks 2%

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th
Roosters	37%	29%	16%	9%	3%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	-
Broncos	35%	27%	14%	10%	6%	2%	1%	0%	0%	-	-	-
Knights	11%	15%	23%	19%	14%	6%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Raiders	11%	14%	19%	18%	13%	9%	6%	3%	1%	0%	0%	-
Wests Tigers	1%	5%	8%	14%	15%	15%	15%	11%	5%	4%	1%	0%
Warriors	1%	2%	5%	7%	13%	18%	16%	13%	10%	8%	3%	1%
Titans	0%	2%	6%	9%	13%	15%	14%	13%	10%	8%	3%	1%
Sharks	0%	1%	3%	5%	10%	12%	13%	15%	15%	11%	6%	4%
Dragons	0%	0%	1%	4%	5%	10%	14%	17%	17%	12%	10%	4%
Bulldogs	-	0%	0%	0%	2%	4%	6%	8%	14%	18%	24%	19%
Eels	-	0%	0%	-	0%	2%	4%	8%	13%	21%	25%	24%
Cowboys	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%	5%	8%	13%	23%	45%

Reading the table: Each row shows the probability of that team finishing in each position. For example, if a team has 25% in the "1st" column, they finished first in 25% of the 1000 simulated seasons. Each row should sum to approximately 100%.

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Raiders	Away	60%	Moderate
4	Wests Tigers	Away	68%	Moderate
5	Dragons	Away	71%	Easy
6	Eels	Home	85%	Easy
7	Broncos	Away	47%	Hard
8	Warriors	Home	77%	Easy
9	Sharks	Home	75%	Easy
10	Cowboys	Away	78%	Easy
11	Bulldogs	Home	82%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Wests Tigers	Home	77%	Easy
4	Knights	Home	58%	Hard
5	Bulldogs	Away	66%	Moderate
6	Raiders	Away	55%	Hard
7	Roosters	Home	52%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	60%	Moderate
9	Eels	Away	72%	Easy
10	Dragons	Away	66%	Moderate
11	Warriors	Home	73%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Dragons	Home	79%	Easy
4	Broncos	Away	41%	Hard
5	Eels	Away	71%	Easy
6	Warriors	Away	59%	Hard
7	Raiders	Home	70%	Easy
8	Wests Tigers	Home	76%	Easy
9	Cowboys	Away	73%	Easy
10	Bulldogs	Home	79%	Easy
11	Titans	Home	74%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Roosters	Home	39%	Very Hard
4	Sharks	Home	59%	Hard
5	Cowboys	Home	76%	Easy
6	Broncos	Home	44%	Hard
7	Knights	Away	29%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	53%	Hard
9	Titans	Away	46%	Hard
10	Eels	Home	74%	Easy
11	Wests Tigers	Away	50%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Broncos	Away	22%	Very Hard
4	Roosters	Home	31%	Very Hard
5	Sharks	Away	34%	Very Hard
6	Dragons	Away	45%	Hard
7	Warriors	Home	53%	Hard
8	Knights	Away	23%	Very Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	61%	Moderate
10	Titans	Home	54%	Hard
11	Raiders	Home	49%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Cowboys	Home	72%	Easy
4	Eels	Away	56%	Hard
5	Titans	Home	59%	Hard
6	Knights	Home	40%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	46%	Hard
8	Roosters	Away	22%	Very Hard
9	Dragons	Home	65%	Moderate
10	Sharks	Home	55%	Hard
11	Broncos	Away	26%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Eels	Home	70%	Easy
4	Cowboys	Away	57%	Hard
5	Warriors	Away	40%	Hard
6	Sharks	Away	38%	Very Hard
7	Dragons	Home	64%	Moderate
8	Broncos	Home	39%	Very Hard
9	Raiders	Home	53%	Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Away	45%	Hard
11	Knights	Away	25%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Bulldogs	Away	52%	Hard
4	Raiders	Away	40%	Hard
5	Wests Tigers	Home	65%	Moderate
6	Titans	Home	61%	Moderate
7	Cowboys	Away	61%	Moderate
8	Eels	Home	73%	Easy
9	Roosters	Away	24%	Very Hard
10	Warriors	Away	44%	Hard
11	Dragons	Home	68%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard
4	Bulldogs	Away	41%	Hard
5	Roosters	Home	28%	Very Hard
6	Wests Tigers	Home	54%	Hard
7	Titans	Away	35%	Very Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	66%	Moderate
9	Warriors	Away	34%	Very Hard
10	Broncos	Home	33%	Very Hard
11	Sharks	Away	31%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Sharks	Home	47%	Hard
4	Dragons	Home	58%	Hard
5	Broncos	Home	33%	Very Hard
6	Cowboys	Home	66%	Moderate
7	Eels	Away	48%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	46%	Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Away	38%	Very Hard
10	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard
11	Roosters	Away	17%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Titans	Away	29%	Very Hard
4	Warriors	Home	43%	Hard
5	Knights	Home	28%	Very Hard
6	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	51%	Hard
8	Sharks	Away	26%	Very Hard
9	Broncos	Home	27%	Very Hard
10	Raiders	Away	25%	Very Hard
11	Cowboys	Home	60%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Warriors	Away	27%	Very Hard
4	Titans	Home	42%	Hard
5	Raiders	Away	23%	Very Hard
6	Bulldogs	Away	33%	Very Hard
7	Sharks	Home	38%	Very Hard
8	Dragons	Away	33%	Very Hard
9	Knights	Home	26%	Very Hard
10	Roosters	Home	21%	Very Hard
11	Eels	Away	39%	Very Hard

Round 7 Predictions (54 total matches across 9 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Titans	1486	Dragons	1436	64%
Eels	1392	Bulldogs	1437	51%
Broncos	1616	Roosters	1655	52%
Knights	1613	Raiders	1521	70%
Wests Tigers	1462	Warriors	1492	53%
Cowboys	1377	Sharks	1513	38%

Round 5 of 9 (6 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Finals Bracket Preview

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Week 2 - Semi Finals

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

Week 4 - Grand Final

Most Likely Grand Final

All Championship Contenders

Ladder Position Distribution

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 9 games remaining Expected: 6.5 wins 72% win rate

Broncos 9 games remaining Expected: 5.8 wins 65% win rate

Knights 9 games remaining Expected: 6.3 wins 70% win rate

Raiders 9 games remaining Expected: 4.7 wins 53% win rate

Wests Tigers 9 games remaining Expected: 3.8 wins 42% win rate

Warriors 9 games remaining Expected: 4.4 wins 49% win rate

Titans 9 games remaining Expected: 4.4 wins 48% win rate

Sharks 9 games remaining Expected: 4.9 wins 55% win rate

Dragons 9 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 38% win rate

Bulldogs 9 games remaining Expected: 3.7 wins 42% win rate

Eels 9 games remaining Expected: 3.1 wins 34% win rate

Cowboys 9 games remaining Expected: 2.9 wins 32% win rate

Round 7 Predictions (54 total matches across 9 rounds)