Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2026
Run Date:: Jul 09, 2026 12:45
Current Round:: Round 2
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	8.1	2.9	18.2	283.8	228.1	55.7	35%	33%	0%
2	Broncos	7.8	3.2	17.6	319.2	247.3	71.9	35%	23%	0%
3	Knights	7.7	3.3	17.4	226.7	187.4	39.3	20%	24%	0%
4	Warriors	6.3	4.7	14.6	280.2	254.1	26.2	4%	7%	1%
5	Raiders	5.9	5.1	13.8	226.0	211.7	14.4	2%	3%	0%
6	Wests Tigers	5.1	5.9	12.1	250.5	252.1	-1.6	0%	1%	3%
7	Sharks	5.0	6.0	11.9	149.2	162.8	-13.6	0%	2%	3%
8	Bulldogs	4.8	6.2	11.7	138.8	163.6	-24.8	0%	1%	7%
9	Titans	4.3	6.7	10.7	134.1	168.5	-34.4	0%	0%	12%
10	Dragons	3.8	7.2	9.7	130.7	163.9	-33.1	0%	0%	18%
11	Eels	3.6	7.4	9.3	159.3	192.0	-32.7	0%	0%	20%
12	Cowboys	3.6	7.4	9.2	104.8	171.9	-67.1	0%	0%	31%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Roosters (1st) vs Warriors (4th)

Home: Roosters

Roosters: 33% to win championship
Warriors: 7% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Broncos (2nd) vs Knights (3rd)

Home: Broncos

Broncos: 23% to win championship
Knights: 24% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Raiders (5th) vs Bulldogs (8th)

Home: Raiders

Raiders: 3% to win championship
Bulldogs: 1% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Wests Tigers (6th) vs Sharks (7th)

Home: Wests Tigers

Wests Tigers: 1% to win championship
Sharks: 2% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Warriors vs Raiders

Home: Warriors

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Knights vs Wests Tigers

Home: Knights

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Roosters vs Knights

Home: Roosters

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Broncos vs Warriors

Home: Broncos

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Roosters vs Broncos

33% to win 23% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

Roosters 33%

Broncos 23%

Knights 24%

Warriors 7%

Raiders 3%

Wests Tigers 1%

Sharks 2%

Bulldogs 1%

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th
Roosters	35%	26%	16%	9%	5%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	-
Broncos	35%	25%	17%	9%	7%	2%	2%	0%	0%	0%	-	-
Knights	20%	23%	20%	16%	8%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%	-	0%
Warriors	4%	9%	17%	19%	15%	11%	8%	7%	2%	2%	1%	1%
Raiders	2%	6%	12%	14%	15%	14%	12%	8%	5%	4%	2%	0%
Wests Tigers	0%	2%	6%	9%	12%	13%	13%	12%	12%	8%	6%	3%
Sharks	0%	1%	3%	5%	12%	14%	13%	14%	13%	10%	7%	3%
Bulldogs	0%	1%	2%	6%	8%	10%	15%	13%	12%	11%	9%	7%
Titans	-	0%	1%	4%	4%	9%	10%	12%	14%	15%	14%	12%
Dragons	-	0%	1%	2%	3%	7%	7%	11%	12%	17%	16%	18%
Eels	0%	0%	1%	2%	3%	6%	7%	10%	14%	14%	20%	20%
Cowboys	0%	0%	0%	1%	2%	3%	5%	7%	12%	14%	21%	31%

Reading the table: Each row shows the probability of that team finishing in each position. For example, if a team has 25% in the "1st" column, they finished first in 25% of the 1000 simulated seasons. Each row should sum to approximately 100%.

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Knights	Home	62%	Moderate
3	Raiders	Away	64%	Moderate
4	Wests Tigers	Away	70%	Easy
5	Dragons	Away	72%	Easy
6	Eels	Home	84%	Easy
7	Broncos	Away	46%	Hard
8	Warriors	Home	74%	Easy
9	Sharks	Home	75%	Easy
10	Cowboys	Away	75%	Easy
11	Bulldogs	Home	78%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Wests Tigers	Home	78%	Easy
4	Knights	Home	57%	Hard
5	Bulldogs	Away	61%	Moderate
6	Raiders	Away	59%	Hard
7	Roosters	Home	53%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	65%	Moderate
9	Eels	Away	70%	Easy
10	Dragons	Away	68%	Moderate
11	Warriors	Home	70%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Roosters	Away	37%	Very Hard
3	Dragons	Home	81%	Easy
4	Broncos	Away	42%	Hard
5	Eels	Away	70%	Easy
6	Warriors	Away	55%	Hard
7	Raiders	Home	74%	Easy
8	Wests Tigers	Home	79%	Easy
9	Cowboys	Away	72%	Easy
10	Bulldogs	Home	75%	Easy
11	Titans	Home	78%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Raiders	Away	46%	Hard
3	Cowboys	Home	74%	Easy
4	Eels	Away	58%	Hard
5	Titans	Home	68%	Moderate
6	Knights	Home	44%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	53%	Hard
8	Roosters	Away	25%	Very Hard
9	Dragons	Home	71%	Easy
10	Sharks	Home	59%	Hard
11	Broncos	Away	29%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Warriors	Home	53%	Hard
3	Roosters	Home	35%	Very Hard
4	Sharks	Home	55%	Hard
5	Cowboys	Home	70%	Easy
6	Broncos	Home	40%	Hard
7	Knights	Away	25%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	43%	Hard
9	Titans	Away	48%	Hard
10	Eels	Home	69%	Moderate
11	Wests Tigers	Away	48%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Cowboys	Away	48%	Hard
3	Broncos	Away	21%	Very Hard
4	Roosters	Home	29%	Very Hard
5	Sharks	Away	32%	Very Hard
6	Dragons	Away	45%	Hard
7	Warriors	Home	46%	Hard
8	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	53%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	57%	Hard
11	Raiders	Home	51%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Bulldogs	Away	47%	Hard
4	Raiders	Away	44%	Hard
5	Wests Tigers	Home	67%	Moderate
6	Titans	Home	67%	Moderate
7	Cowboys	Away	58%	Hard
8	Eels	Home	71%	Easy
9	Roosters	Away	24%	Very Hard
10	Warriors	Away	40%	Hard
11	Dragons	Home	70%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Titans	Home	62%	Moderate
3	Sharks	Home	52%	Hard
4	Dragons	Home	65%	Moderate
5	Broncos	Home	38%	Very Hard
6	Cowboys	Home	68%	Moderate
7	Eels	Away	51%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	56%	Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Away	46%	Hard
10	Knights	Away	24%	Very Hard
11	Roosters	Away	21%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Bulldogs	Away	37%	Very Hard
3	Eels	Home	63%	Moderate
4	Cowboys	Away	49%	Hard
5	Warriors	Away	31%	Very Hard
6	Sharks	Away	32%	Very Hard
7	Dragons	Home	61%	Moderate
8	Broncos	Home	34%	Very Hard
9	Raiders	Home	51%	Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Away	42%	Hard
11	Knights	Away	21%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Eels	Home	59%	Hard
3	Knights	Away	18%	Very Hard
4	Bulldogs	Away	34%	Very Hard
5	Roosters	Home	27%	Very Hard
6	Wests Tigers	Home	54%	Hard
7	Titans	Away	38%	Very Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	61%	Moderate
9	Warriors	Away	28%	Very Hard
10	Broncos	Home	31%	Very Hard
11	Sharks	Away	29%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Dragons	Away	40%	Hard
3	Titans	Away	36%	Very Hard
4	Warriors	Home	41%	Hard
5	Knights	Home	29%	Very Hard
6	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	48%	Hard
8	Sharks	Away	28%	Very Hard
9	Broncos	Home	29%	Very Hard
10	Raiders	Away	30%	Very Hard
11	Cowboys	Home	59%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
2	Wests Tigers	Home	51%	Hard
3	Warriors	Away	25%	Very Hard
4	Titans	Home	50%	Hard
5	Raiders	Away	29%	Very Hard
6	Bulldogs	Away	31%	Very Hard
7	Sharks	Home	41%	Hard
8	Dragons	Away	38%	Very Hard
9	Knights	Home	27%	Very Hard
10	Roosters	Home	24%	Very Hard
11	Eels	Away	40%	Hard

Round 8 Predictions (59 total matches across 10 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Knights	1619	Wests Tigers	1444	79%
Bulldogs	1476	Raiders	1491	56%
Dragons	1420	Cowboys	1395	61%
Titans	1446	Broncos	1616	34%
Roosters	1649	Warriors	1522	74%
Sharks	1513	Eels	1408	71%

Round 7 of 10 (6 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Finals Bracket Preview

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Week 2 - Semi Finals

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

Week 4 - Grand Final

Most Likely Grand Final

All Championship Contenders

Ladder Position Distribution

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 10 games remaining Expected: 7.0 wins 70% win rate

Broncos 9 games remaining Expected: 5.9 wins 65% win rate

Knights 10 games remaining Expected: 6.7 wins 67% win rate

Warriors 10 games remaining Expected: 5.3 wins 53% win rate

Raiders 10 games remaining Expected: 4.9 wins 49% win rate

Wests Tigers 10 games remaining Expected: 4.1 wins 41% win rate

Sharks 9 games remaining Expected: 4.9 wins 55% win rate

Bulldogs 10 games remaining Expected: 4.9 wins 49% win rate

Titans 10 games remaining Expected: 4.3 wins 43% win rate

Dragons 10 games remaining Expected: 3.8 wins 38% win rate

Eels 10 games remaining Expected: 3.6 wins 36% win rate

Cowboys 10 games remaining Expected: 3.6 wins 36% win rate

Round 8 Predictions (59 total matches across 10 rounds)