Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Aug 05, 2025 23:54
Current Round:: Round 5
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	D	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	9.5	1.5	0.0	19.0	296.9	181.8	115.0	90%	99%	100%	62%	0%	0%
2	Broncos	8.4	2.6	0.0	16.8	282.8	163.1	119.6	73%	97%	99%	28%	0%	0%
3	Knights	7.9	3.1	0.0	15.7	254.2	177.8	76.4	31%	92%	98%	8%	0%	0%
4	Eels	5.7	5.3	0.0	11.4	179.3	184.2	-5.0	0%	21%	55%	0%	0%	0%
5	Bulldogs	5.2	4.8	1.0	11.4	188.0	191.4	-3.4	2%	28%	61%	0%	0%	0%
6	Cowboys	5.2	5.8	0.0	10.4	163.8	159.5	4.3	0%	14%	43%	0%	0%	0%
7	Titans	4.6	5.4	1.0	10.3	151.9	189.6	-37.7	0%	12%	36%	0%	0%	0%
8	Sharks	5.1	5.9	0.0	10.3	243.8	205.7	38.1	0%	18%	50%	0%	0%	0%
9	Warriors	4.9	6.1	0.0	9.8	145.1	176.2	-31.1	0%	6%	26%	0%	0%	0%
10	Dragons	4.8	6.2	0.0	9.5	168.2	186.1	-17.9	0%	7%	27%	0%	0%	0%
11	Wests Tigers	2.3	8.7	0.0	4.6	106.9	191.6	-84.7	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	21%
12	Raiders	1.5	9.5	0.0	2.9	86.8	260.6	-173.8	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	77%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Roosters (1st) vs Eels (4th)

Home: Roosters

Roosters: 0% to win championship
Eels: 0% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Broncos (2nd) vs Knights (3rd)

Home: Broncos

Broncos: 0% to win championship
Knights: 0% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Bulldogs (5th) vs Sharks (8th)

Home: Bulldogs

Bulldogs: 0% to win championship
Sharks: 0% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Cowboys (6th) vs Titans (7th)

Home: Cowboys

Cowboys: 0% to win championship
Titans: 0% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Eels vs Bulldogs

Home: Eels

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Knights vs Cowboys

Home: Knights

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Roosters vs Knights

Home: Roosters

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Broncos vs Eels

Home: Broncos

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Roosters vs Broncos

0% to win 0% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

No position distribution data available for this simulation.

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Titans	Away	74%	Easy
7	Knights	Home	65%	Moderate
8	Eels	Away	74%	Easy
9	Cowboys	Away	76%	Easy
10	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
11	Sharks	Home	74%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Raiders	Away	83%	Easy
7	Eels	Home	81%	Easy
8	Knights	Away	44%	Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	76%	Easy
10	Warriors	Away	66%	Moderate
11	Cowboys	Home	83%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
7	Roosters	Away	34%	Very Hard
8	Broncos	Home	55%	Hard
9	Sharks	Away	52%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	79%	Easy
11	Dragons	Home	80%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Cowboys	Home	60%	Moderate
7	Broncos	Away	18%	Very Hard
8	Roosters	Home	25%	Very Hard
9	Titans	Away	41%	Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Home	69%	Moderate
11	Bulldogs	Home	50%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Warriors	Home	62%	Moderate
7	Cowboys	Away	51%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	80%	Easy
9	Broncos	Away	23%	Very Hard
10	Sharks	Home	50%	Hard
11	Eels	Away	49%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Eels	Away	39%	Very Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	48%	Hard
8	Wests Tigers	Away	52%	Hard
9	Roosters	Home	23%	Very Hard
10	Dragons	Away	40%	Hard
11	Broncos	Away	16%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Roosters	Home	25%	Very Hard
7	Sharks	Away	28%	Very Hard
8	Dragons	Home	59%	Hard
9	Eels	Home	58%	Hard
10	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard
11	Raiders	Home	75%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Dragons	Away	57%	Hard
7	Titans	Home	71%	Easy
8	Warriors	Away	53%	Hard
9	Knights	Home	47%	Hard
10	Bulldogs	Away	49%	Hard
11	Roosters	Away	25%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Bulldogs	Away	37%	Very Hard
7	Raiders	Home	77%	Easy
8	Sharks	Home	46%	Hard
9	Dragons	Away	45%	Hard
10	Broncos	Home	33%	Very Hard
11	Wests Tigers	Away	58%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Sharks	Home	42%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	54%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	40%	Hard
9	Warriors	Home	54%	Hard
10	Cowboys	Home	59%	Hard
11	Knights	Away	19%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Knights	Away	15%	Very Hard
7	Dragons	Home	45%	Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	47%	Hard
9	Raiders	Away	48%	Hard
10	Eels	Away	30%	Very Hard
11	Warriors	Home	41%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Broncos	Home	16%	Very Hard
7	Warriors	Away	22%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	19%	Very Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Home	51%	Hard
10	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
11	Titans	Away	24%	Very Hard

Round 9 Predictions (36 total matches across 6 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Raiders	1318	Wests Tigers	1363	51%
Dragons	1448	Warriors	1477	54%
Cowboys	1436	Roosters	1694	23%
Sharks	1560	Knights	1637	47%
Broncos	1655	Bulldogs	1505	76%
Titans	1455	Eels	1452	58%

Round 4 of 6 (6 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Finals Bracket Preview

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Week 2 - Semi Finals

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

Week 4 - Grand Final

Most Likely Grand Final

All Championship Contenders

Ladder Position Distribution

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 6 games remaining Expected: 4.5 wins 75% win rate

Broncos 6 games remaining Expected: 4.4 wins 73% win rate

Knights 6 games remaining Expected: 3.9 wins 65% win rate

Eels 6 games remaining Expected: 2.7 wins 44% win rate

Bulldogs 6 games remaining Expected: 3.2 wins 53% win rate

Cowboys 6 games remaining Expected: 2.2 wins 37% win rate

Titans 6 games remaining Expected: 2.7 wins 45% win rate

Sharks 6 games remaining Expected: 3.1 wins 51% win rate

Warriors 6 games remaining Expected: 3.0 wins 50% win rate

Dragons 6 games remaining Expected: 2.7 wins 45% win rate

Wests Tigers 6 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 38% win rate

Raiders 6 games remaining Expected: 1.5 wins 25% win rate

Round 9 Predictions (36 total matches across 6 rounds)