Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Aug 05, 2025 23:54
Current Round:: Round 5
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes and final ladder positions:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The percentages show how often each team achieved that position across all simulations. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	D	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	9.5	1.5	0.0	19.0	296.9	181.8	115.0	90%	99%	100%	62%	0%
2	Broncos	8.4	2.6	0.0	16.8	282.8	163.1	119.6	73%	97%	99%	28%	0%
3	Knights	7.9	3.1	0.0	15.7	254.2	177.8	76.4	31%	92%	98%	8%	0%
4	Eels	5.7	5.3	0.0	11.4	179.3	184.2	-5.0	0%	21%	55%	0%	0%
5	Bulldogs	5.2	4.8	1.0	11.4	188.0	191.4	-3.4	2%	28%	61%	0%	0%
6	Cowboys	5.2	5.8	0.0	10.4	163.8	159.5	4.3	0%	14%	43%	0%	0%
7	Titans	4.6	5.4	1.0	10.3	151.9	189.6	-37.7	0%	12%	36%	0%	0%
8	Sharks	5.1	5.9	0.0	10.3	243.8	205.7	38.1	0%	18%	50%	0%	0%
9	Warriors	4.9	6.1	0.0	9.8	145.1	176.2	-31.1	0%	6%	26%	0%	0%
10	Dragons	4.8	6.2	0.0	9.5	168.2	186.1	-17.9	0%	7%	27%	0%	0%
11	Wests Tigers	2.3	8.7	0.0	4.6	106.9	191.6	-84.7	0%	0%	0%	0%	21%
12	Raiders	1.5	9.5	0.0	2.9	86.8	260.6	-173.8	0%	0%	0%	0%	77%

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Titans	Away	74%	Easy
7	Knights	Home	65%	Moderate
8	Eels	Away	74%	Easy
9	Cowboys	Away	76%	Easy
10	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
11	Sharks	Home	74%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Raiders	Away	83%	Easy
7	Eels	Home	81%	Easy
8	Knights	Away	44%	Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	76%	Easy
10	Warriors	Away	66%	Moderate
11	Cowboys	Home	83%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
7	Roosters	Away	34%	Very Hard
8	Broncos	Home	55%	Hard
9	Sharks	Away	52%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	79%	Easy
11	Dragons	Home	80%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Cowboys	Home	60%	Moderate
7	Broncos	Away	18%	Very Hard
8	Roosters	Home	25%	Very Hard
9	Titans	Away	41%	Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Home	69%	Moderate
11	Bulldogs	Home	50%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Warriors	Home	62%	Moderate
7	Cowboys	Away	51%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	80%	Easy
9	Broncos	Away	23%	Very Hard
10	Sharks	Home	50%	Hard
11	Eels	Away	49%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Eels	Away	39%	Very Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	48%	Hard
8	Wests Tigers	Away	52%	Hard
9	Roosters	Home	23%	Very Hard
10	Dragons	Away	40%	Hard
11	Broncos	Away	16%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Roosters	Home	25%	Very Hard
7	Sharks	Away	28%	Very Hard
8	Dragons	Home	59%	Hard
9	Eels	Home	58%	Hard
10	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard
11	Raiders	Home	75%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Dragons	Away	57%	Hard
7	Titans	Home	71%	Easy
8	Warriors	Away	53%	Hard
9	Knights	Home	47%	Hard
10	Bulldogs	Away	49%	Hard
11	Roosters	Away	25%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Bulldogs	Away	37%	Very Hard
7	Raiders	Home	77%	Easy
8	Sharks	Home	46%	Hard
9	Dragons	Away	45%	Hard
10	Broncos	Home	33%	Very Hard
11	Wests Tigers	Away	58%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Sharks	Home	42%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	54%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	40%	Hard
9	Warriors	Home	54%	Hard
10	Cowboys	Home	59%	Hard
11	Knights	Away	19%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Knights	Away	15%	Very Hard
7	Dragons	Home	45%	Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	47%	Hard
9	Raiders	Away	48%	Hard
10	Eels	Away	30%	Very Hard
11	Warriors	Home	41%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Broncos	Home	16%	Very Hard
7	Warriors	Away	22%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	19%	Very Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Home	51%	Hard
10	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
11	Titans	Away	24%	Very Hard

Round 6 Predictions (36 total matches across 6 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Dragons	1448	Sharks	1560	42%
Knights	1637	Wests Tigers	1363	85%
Bulldogs	1505	Warriors	1477	62%
Titans	1455	Roosters	1694	25%
Raiders	1318	Broncos	1655	16%
Eels	1452	Cowboys	1436	60%

Round 1 of 6 (6 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 6 games remaining Expected: 4.5 wins 75% win rate

Broncos 6 games remaining Expected: 4.4 wins 73% win rate

Knights 6 games remaining Expected: 3.9 wins 65% win rate

Eels 6 games remaining Expected: 2.7 wins 44% win rate

Bulldogs 6 games remaining Expected: 3.2 wins 53% win rate

Cowboys 6 games remaining Expected: 2.2 wins 37% win rate

Titans 6 games remaining Expected: 2.7 wins 45% win rate

Sharks 6 games remaining Expected: 3.1 wins 51% win rate

Warriors 6 games remaining Expected: 3.0 wins 50% win rate

Dragons 6 games remaining Expected: 2.7 wins 45% win rate

Wests Tigers 6 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 38% win rate

Raiders 6 games remaining Expected: 1.5 wins 25% win rate

Round 6 Predictions (36 total matches across 6 rounds)