Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Aug 03, 2025 09:46
Current Round:: Round 5
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	D	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	9.5	1.5	0.0	21.0	299.6	184.3	115.3	92%	99%	100%	67%	0%	0%
2	Broncos	8.4	2.6	0.0	18.7	285.5	167.1	118.4	73%	97%	99%	25%	0%	0%
3	Knights	7.7	3.3	0.0	17.4	253.2	188.5	64.7	28%	89%	98%	6%	0%	0%
4	Cowboys	5.9	5.1	0.0	13.7	183.2	171.8	11.4	2%	29%	60%	0%	0%	0%
5	Bulldogs	5.2	4.8	1.0	13.4	189.3	192.6	-3.3	2%	27%	61%	0%	0%	0%
6	Eels	5.2	5.8	0.0	12.4	186.8	193.8	-7.1	0%	13%	40%	0%	0%	0%
7	Dragons	5.2	5.8	0.0	12.4	179.7	196.3	-16.6	0%	13%	36%	0%	0%	0%
8	Titans	4.7	5.3	1.0	12.3	153.8	191.1	-37.3	0%	10%	40%	0%	0%	0%
9	Sharks	5.1	5.9	0.0	12.2	244.8	207.4	37.5	0%	17%	46%	0%	0%	0%
10	Warriors	4.3	6.7	0.0	10.6	146.8	185.0	-38.2	0%	2%	15%	0%	0%	1%
11	Wests Tigers	2.3	8.7	0.0	6.5	108.3	192.9	-84.6	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	25%
12	Raiders	1.7	9.3	0.0	5.3	95.4	255.7	-160.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	72%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Roosters (1st) vs Cowboys (4th)

Home: Roosters

Roosters: 0% to win championship
Cowboys: 0% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Broncos (2nd) vs Knights (3rd)

Home: Broncos

Broncos: 0% to win championship
Knights: 0% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Bulldogs (5th) vs Titans (8th)

Home: Bulldogs

Bulldogs: 0% to win championship
Titans: 0% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Eels (6th) vs Dragons (7th)

Home: Eels

Eels: 0% to win championship
Dragons: 0% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Cowboys vs Bulldogs

Home: Cowboys

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Knights vs Eels

Home: Knights

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Roosters vs Knights

Home: Roosters

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Broncos vs Cowboys

Home: Broncos

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Roosters vs Broncos

0% to win 0% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

No position distribution data available for this simulation.

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Titans	Away	74%	Easy
7	Knights	Home	66%	Moderate
8	Eels	Away	75%	Easy
9	Cowboys	Away	74%	Easy
10	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
11	Sharks	Home	74%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Raiders	Away	82%	Easy
7	Eels	Home	82%	Easy
8	Knights	Away	45%	Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	76%	Easy
10	Warriors	Away	68%	Moderate
11	Cowboys	Home	81%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
6	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
7	Roosters	Away	33%	Very Hard
8	Broncos	Home	54%	Hard
9	Sharks	Away	52%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	79%	Easy
11	Dragons	Home	79%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Warriors	Home	56%	Hard
6	Eels	Away	42%	Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	50%	Hard
8	Wests Tigers	Away	54%	Hard
9	Roosters	Home	25%	Very Hard
10	Dragons	Away	41%	Hard
11	Broncos	Away	18%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Warriors	Home	63%	Moderate
7	Cowboys	Away	49%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	79%	Easy
9	Broncos	Away	23%	Very Hard
10	Sharks	Home	50%	Hard
11	Eels	Away	50%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Dragons	Home	56%	Hard
6	Cowboys	Home	57%	Hard
7	Broncos	Away	17%	Very Hard
8	Roosters	Home	24%	Very Hard
9	Titans	Away	40%	Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Home	69%	Moderate
11	Bulldogs	Home	49%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Eels	Away	43%	Hard
6	Sharks	Home	43%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	55%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	41%	Hard
9	Warriors	Home	56%	Hard
10	Cowboys	Home	58%	Hard
11	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Roosters	Home	25%	Very Hard
7	Sharks	Away	28%	Very Hard
8	Dragons	Home	58%	Hard
9	Eels	Home	59%	Hard
10	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard
11	Raiders	Home	74%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Dragons	Away	56%	Hard
7	Titans	Home	71%	Easy
8	Warriors	Away	55%	Hard
9	Knights	Home	47%	Hard
10	Bulldogs	Away	49%	Hard
11	Roosters	Away	25%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Cowboys	Away	43%	Hard
6	Bulldogs	Away	36%	Very Hard
7	Raiders	Home	75%	Easy
8	Sharks	Home	44%	Hard
9	Dragons	Away	43%	Hard
10	Broncos	Home	31%	Very Hard
11	Wests Tigers	Away	56%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Knights	Away	15%	Very Hard
7	Dragons	Home	44%	Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	45%	Hard
9	Raiders	Away	47%	Hard
10	Eels	Away	30%	Very Hard
11	Warriors	Home	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Knights	Away	15%	Very Hard
6	Broncos	Home	17%	Very Hard
7	Warriors	Away	24%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	20%	Very Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Home	52%	Hard
10	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
11	Titans	Away	25%	Very Hard

Round 9 Predictions (39 total matches across 7 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Raiders	1323	Wests Tigers	1363	52%
Dragons	1455	Warriors	1464	56%
Cowboys	1450	Roosters	1694	25%
Sharks	1560	Knights	1632	47%
Broncos	1655	Bulldogs	1505	76%
Titans	1455	Eels	1445	59%

Round 5 of 7 (6 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Finals Bracket Preview

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Week 2 - Semi Finals

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

Week 4 - Grand Final

Most Likely Grand Final

All Championship Contenders

Ladder Position Distribution

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 6 games remaining Expected: 4.5 wins 75% win rate

Broncos 6 games remaining Expected: 4.4 wins 73% win rate

Knights 7 games remaining Expected: 4.7 wins 67% win rate

Cowboys 7 games remaining Expected: 2.9 wins 41% win rate

Bulldogs 6 games remaining Expected: 3.2 wins 53% win rate

Eels 7 games remaining Expected: 3.2 wins 45% win rate

Dragons 7 games remaining Expected: 3.2 wins 46% win rate

Titans 6 games remaining Expected: 2.7 wins 44% win rate

Sharks 6 games remaining Expected: 3.1 wins 51% win rate

Warriors 7 games remaining Expected: 3.3 wins 47% win rate

Wests Tigers 6 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 38% win rate

Raiders 7 games remaining Expected: 1.7 wins 24% win rate

Round 9 Predictions (39 total matches across 7 rounds)