Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Aug 03, 2025 09:46
Current Round:: Round 5
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes and final ladder positions:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The percentages show how often each team achieved that position across all simulations. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	D	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	9.5	1.5	0.0	21.0	299.6	184.3	115.3	92%	99%	100%	67%	0%
2	Broncos	8.4	2.6	0.0	18.7	285.5	167.1	118.4	73%	97%	99%	25%	0%
3	Knights	7.7	3.3	0.0	17.4	253.2	188.5	64.7	28%	89%	98%	6%	0%
4	Cowboys	5.9	5.1	0.0	13.7	183.2	171.8	11.4	2%	29%	60%	0%	0%
5	Bulldogs	5.2	4.8	1.0	13.4	189.3	192.6	-3.3	2%	27%	61%	0%	0%
6	Eels	5.2	5.8	0.0	12.4	186.8	193.8	-7.1	0%	13%	40%	0%	0%
7	Dragons	5.2	5.8	0.0	12.4	179.7	196.3	-16.6	0%	13%	36%	0%	0%
8	Titans	4.7	5.3	1.0	12.3	153.8	191.1	-37.3	0%	10%	40%	0%	0%
9	Sharks	5.1	5.9	0.0	12.2	244.8	207.4	37.5	0%	17%	46%	0%	0%
10	Warriors	4.3	6.7	0.0	10.6	146.8	185.0	-38.2	0%	2%	15%	0%	1%
11	Wests Tigers	2.3	8.7	0.0	6.5	108.3	192.9	-84.6	0%	0%	0%	0%	25%
12	Raiders	1.7	9.3	0.0	5.3	95.4	255.7	-160.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	72%

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Titans	Away	74%	Easy
7	Knights	Home	66%	Moderate
8	Eels	Away	75%	Easy
9	Cowboys	Away	74%	Easy
10	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
11	Sharks	Home	74%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Raiders	Away	82%	Easy
7	Eels	Home	82%	Easy
8	Knights	Away	45%	Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	76%	Easy
10	Warriors	Away	68%	Moderate
11	Cowboys	Home	81%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
6	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
7	Roosters	Away	33%	Very Hard
8	Broncos	Home	54%	Hard
9	Sharks	Away	52%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	79%	Easy
11	Dragons	Home	79%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Warriors	Home	56%	Hard
6	Eels	Away	42%	Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	50%	Hard
8	Wests Tigers	Away	54%	Hard
9	Roosters	Home	25%	Very Hard
10	Dragons	Away	41%	Hard
11	Broncos	Away	18%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Warriors	Home	63%	Moderate
7	Cowboys	Away	49%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	79%	Easy
9	Broncos	Away	23%	Very Hard
10	Sharks	Home	50%	Hard
11	Eels	Away	50%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Dragons	Home	56%	Hard
6	Cowboys	Home	57%	Hard
7	Broncos	Away	17%	Very Hard
8	Roosters	Home	24%	Very Hard
9	Titans	Away	40%	Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Home	69%	Moderate
11	Bulldogs	Home	49%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Eels	Away	43%	Hard
6	Sharks	Home	43%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	55%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	41%	Hard
9	Warriors	Home	56%	Hard
10	Cowboys	Home	58%	Hard
11	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Roosters	Home	25%	Very Hard
7	Sharks	Away	28%	Very Hard
8	Dragons	Home	58%	Hard
9	Eels	Home	59%	Hard
10	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard
11	Raiders	Home	74%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Dragons	Away	56%	Hard
7	Titans	Home	71%	Easy
8	Warriors	Away	55%	Hard
9	Knights	Home	47%	Hard
10	Bulldogs	Away	49%	Hard
11	Roosters	Away	25%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Cowboys	Away	43%	Hard
6	Bulldogs	Away	36%	Very Hard
7	Raiders	Home	75%	Easy
8	Sharks	Home	44%	Hard
9	Dragons	Away	43%	Hard
10	Broncos	Home	31%	Very Hard
11	Wests Tigers	Away	56%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
6	Knights	Away	15%	Very Hard
7	Dragons	Home	44%	Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	45%	Hard
9	Raiders	Away	47%	Hard
10	Eels	Away	30%	Very Hard
11	Warriors	Home	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Knights	Away	15%	Very Hard
6	Broncos	Home	17%	Very Hard
7	Warriors	Away	24%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	20%	Very Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Home	52%	Hard
10	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
11	Titans	Away	25%	Very Hard

Round 5 Predictions (39 total matches across 7 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Cowboys	1450	Warriors	1464	56%
Knights	1632	Raiders	1323	85%
Eels	1445	Dragons	1455	56%

Round 1 of 7 (3 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 6 games remaining Expected: 4.5 wins 75% win rate

Broncos 6 games remaining Expected: 4.4 wins 73% win rate

Knights 7 games remaining Expected: 4.7 wins 67% win rate

Cowboys 7 games remaining Expected: 2.9 wins 41% win rate

Bulldogs 6 games remaining Expected: 3.2 wins 53% win rate

Eels 7 games remaining Expected: 3.2 wins 45% win rate

Dragons 7 games remaining Expected: 3.2 wins 46% win rate

Titans 6 games remaining Expected: 2.7 wins 44% win rate

Sharks 6 games remaining Expected: 3.1 wins 51% win rate

Warriors 7 games remaining Expected: 3.3 wins 47% win rate

Wests Tigers 6 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 38% win rate

Raiders 7 games remaining Expected: 1.7 wins 24% win rate

Round 5 Predictions (39 total matches across 7 rounds)