Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Aug 03, 2025 09:27
Current Round:: Round 22
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes and final ladder positions:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The percentages show how often each team achieved that position across all simulations. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	D	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🥄 %
1	Raiders	18.2	5.8	0.0	42.5	649.9	494.2	155.7	95%	100%	100%	53%	0%
2	Storm	17.5	6.5	0.0	41.1	716.6	472.7	243.9	86%	98%	100%	43%	0%
3	Bulldogs	16.2	7.8	0.0	38.4	551.4	434.0	117.5	15%	85%	100%	3%	0%
4	Warriors	15.0	9.0	0.0	35.9	508.1	475.3	32.9	0%	33%	98%	0%	0%
5	Panthers	14.2	8.8	1.0	35.5	567.0	472.5	94.5	2%	36%	98%	0%	0%
6	Sharks	14.7	9.3	0.0	35.4	546.8	493.0	53.7	0%	31%	98%	0%	0%
7	Dolphins	13.3	10.7	0.0	32.7	677.4	494.3	183.1	0%	8%	89%	0%	0%
8	Broncos	13.3	10.7	0.0	32.6	644.5	523.5	121.0	0%	6%	90%	0%	0%
9	Roosters	11.7	12.3	0.0	29.5	572.9	549.9	23.0	0%	0%	15%	0%	0%
10	Sea Eagles	11.3	12.7	0.0	28.6	508.2	505.3	2.9	0%	0%	9%	0%	0%
11	Wests Tigers	9.6	14.4	0.0	25.2	451.8	578.6	-126.8	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
12	Cowboys	8.9	14.1	1.0	24.8	486.4	664.8	-178.5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
13	Dragons	8.9	15.1	0.0	23.7	515.8	583.3	-67.5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
14	Eels	8.1	15.9	0.0	22.3	420.8	579.4	-158.7	0%	0%	0%	0%	11%
15	Knights	7.7	16.3	0.0	21.4	354.5	483.1	-128.6	0%	0%	0%	0%	8%
16	Rabbitohs	7.5	16.5	0.0	21.0	395.8	600.4	-204.6	0%	0%	0%	0%	35%
17	Titans	6.8	17.2	0.0	19.6	475.9	639.5	-163.6	0%	0%	0%	0%	44%

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Sea Eagles	Home	72%	Easy
25	Panthers	Away	33%	Very Hard
26	Wests Tigers	Home	83%	Easy
27	Dolphins	Away	36%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Broncos	Home	77%	Easy
24	Panthers	Away	51%	Hard
25	Bulldogs	Home	77%	Easy
26	Roosters	Home	76%	Easy
27	Broncos	Away	64%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Warriors	Home	64%	Moderate
24	Roosters	Away	40%	Hard
25	Storm	Away	22%	Very Hard
26	Panthers	Home	45%	Hard
27	Sharks	Home	55%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Bulldogs	Away	35%	Very Hard
24	Dragons	Home	72%	Easy
25	Titans	Away	66%	Moderate
26	Eels	Home	75%	Easy
27	Sea Eagles	Away	47%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Knights	Away	76%	Easy
24	Storm	Home	48%	Hard
25	Raiders	Home	66%	Moderate
26	Bulldogs	Away	54%	Hard
27	Dragons	Away	74%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Dragons	Away	66%	Moderate
24	Titans	Home	85%	Easy
26	Knights	Home	80%	Easy
27	Bulldogs	Away	44%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Roosters	Home	65%	Moderate
24	Broncos	Away	51%	Hard
25	Sea Eagles	Away	62%	Moderate
26	Titans	Home	85%	Easy
27	Raiders	Home	63%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Storm	Away	22%	Very Hard
24	Dolphins	Home	48%	Hard
25	Knights	Away	64%	Moderate
26	Cowboys	Away	62%	Moderate
27	Storm	Home	35%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Dolphins	Away	34%	Very Hard
24	Bulldogs	Home	59%	Hard
25	Eels	Away	68%	Moderate
26	Storm	Away	23%	Very Hard
27	Rabbitohs	Home	84%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Raiders	Away	27%	Very Hard
24	Wests Tigers	Away	58%	Hard
25	Dolphins	Home	37%	Very Hard
26	Dragons	Away	52%	Hard
27	Warriors	Home	52%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
24	Sea Eagles	Home	41%	Hard
25	Cowboys	Home	51%	Hard
26	Raiders	Away	16%	Very Hard
27	Titans	Away	45%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Eels	Away	46%	Hard
24	Knights	Home	60%	Moderate
25	Wests Tigers	Away	48%	Hard
26	Broncos	Home	37%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Sharks	Home	33%	Very Hard
24	Warriors	Away	27%	Very Hard
25	Rabbitohs	Away	52%	Hard
26	Sea Eagles	Home	47%	Hard
27	Panthers	Home	25%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Cowboys	Home	53%	Hard
24	Rabbitohs	Away	48%	Hard
25	Roosters	Home	31%	Very Hard
26	Warriors	Away	24%	Very Hard
27	Knights	Home	56%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Panthers	Home	23%	Very Hard
24	Cowboys	Away	39%	Very Hard
25	Broncos	Home	35%	Very Hard
26	Sharks	Away	19%	Very Hard
27	Eels	Away	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Titans	Away	40%	Hard
24	Eels	Home	51%	Hard
25	Dragons	Home	47%	Hard
27	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Rabbitohs	Home	59%	Hard
24	Sharks	Away	15%	Very Hard
25	Warriors	Home	33%	Very Hard
26	Dolphins	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Wests Tigers	Home	54%	Hard

Round 23 Predictions (40 total matches across 5 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Storm	1720	Broncos	1558	77%
Knights	1395	Panthers	1652	23%
Raiders	1591	Sea Eagles	1481	72%
Dragons	1409	Sharks	1585	33%
Dolphins	1627	Roosters	1573	65%
Bulldogs	1564	Warriors	1518	64%
Titans	1339	Rabbitohs	1332	59%
Eels	1380	Cowboys	1410	53%

Round 1 of 5 (8 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Raiders 4 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 57% win rate

Storm 5 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 70% win rate

Bulldogs 5 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 46% win rate

Warriors 5 games remaining Expected: 3.0 wins 59% win rate

Panthers 5 games remaining Expected: 3.2 wins 64% win rate

Sharks 4 games remaining Expected: 2.8 wins 69% win rate

Dolphins 5 games remaining Expected: 3.3 wins 66% win rate

Broncos 5 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 47% win rate

Roosters 5 games remaining Expected: 2.7 wins 54% win rate

Sea Eagles 5 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 46% win rate

Wests Tigers 4 games remaining Expected: 1.6 wins 39% win rate

Cowboys 4 games remaining Expected: 1.9 wins 48% win rate

Dragons 5 games remaining Expected: 1.9 wins 38% win rate

Eels 5 games remaining Expected: 2.1 wins 43% win rate

Knights 5 games remaining Expected: 1.6 wins 32% win rate

Rabbitohs 4 games remaining Expected: 1.5 wins 39% win rate

Titans 5 games remaining Expected: 1.8 wins 35% win rate

Round 23 Predictions (40 total matches across 5 rounds)