Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Premiership
Season:: 2026
Run Date:: Jul 03, 2026 18:45
Current Round:: Round 18
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Panthers	19.4	4.6	46.9	696.2	378.8	317.3	97%	52%	0%
2	Dolphins	16.2	7.8	40.4	647.7	490.9	156.8	0%	12%	0%
3	Warriors	15.8	8.2	39.6	659.1	470.7	188.3	1%	9%	0%
4	Roosters	15.6	8.4	39.1	589.7	513.4	76.2	0%	8%	0%
5	Sea Eagles	15.0	9.0	38.0	625.8	461.4	164.4	0%	11%	0%
6	Knights	14.5	9.5	37.0	611.8	571.9	39.9	0%	2%	0%
7	Sharks	14.1	9.9	36.2	593.5	531.9	61.6	0%	3%	0%
8	Cowboys	13.6	10.4	35.2	551.6	559.0	-7.4	0%	0%	0%
9	Rabbitohs	13.1	10.9	34.2	644.3	551.0	93.2	0%	0%	0%
10	Bulldogs	11.1	12.9	30.3	430.0	513.2	-83.3	0%	0%	0%
11	Storm	10.9	13.1	29.9	561.9	569.6	-7.6	0%	0%	0%
12	Wests Tigers	10.4	13.6	28.7	491.0	598.7	-107.6	0%	0%	0%
13	Raiders	8.9	15.1	25.8	437.0	569.0	-132.0	0%	0%	0%
14	Broncos	7.7	16.3	23.4	449.8	591.0	-141.2	0%	0%	0%
15	Eels	7.3	16.7	22.6	434.7	637.1	-202.4	0%	0%	2%
16	Titans	6.6	17.4	21.1	423.5	560.6	-137.0	0%	0%	3%
17	Dragons	3.8	20.2	15.6	329.1	608.4	-279.3	0%	0%	93%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Panthers (1st) vs Roosters (4th)

Home: Panthers

Panthers: 52% to win championship
Roosters: 8% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Dolphins (2nd) vs Warriors (3rd)

Home: Dolphins

Dolphins: 12% to win championship
Warriors: 9% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Sea Eagles (5th) vs Cowboys (8th)

Home: Sea Eagles

Sea Eagles: 11% to win championship
Cowboys: 0% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Knights (6th) vs Sharks (7th)

Home: Knights

Knights: 2% to win championship
Sharks: 3% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Roosters vs Sea Eagles

Home: Roosters

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Warriors vs Knights

Home: Warriors

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Panthers vs Warriors

Home: Panthers

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Dolphins vs Roosters

Home: Dolphins

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Panthers vs Dolphins

52% to win 12% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

Panthers 52%

Dolphins 12%

Warriors 9%

Roosters 8%

Sea Eagles 11%

Knights 2%

Sharks 3%

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	13th	14th	15th	16th	17th
Panthers	97%	2%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Dolphins	0%	33%	25%	16%	11%	6%	3%	1%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Warriors	1%	31%	25%	16%	11%	7%	3%	1%	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Roosters	0%	11%	17%	19%	20%	14%	7%	4%	3%	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-
Sea Eagles	0%	13%	16%	18%	15%	14%	11%	5%	2%	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-
Knights	-	4%	6%	9%	14%	16%	18%	15%	11%	3%	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-
Sharks	-	2%	5%	9%	14%	16%	17%	15%	12%	5%	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-
Cowboys	-	0%	1%	4%	4%	11%	16%	24%	25%	7%	3%	0%	0%	-	-	-	-
Rabbitohs	-	0%	1%	5%	8%	11%	17%	20%	18%	10%	4%	1%	0%	-	-	-	-
Bulldogs	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	3%	9%	27%	27%	20%	7%	2%	0%	0%	-
Storm	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	1%	5%	11%	31%	28%	15%	4%	1%	0%	-	-
Wests Tigers	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	1%	3%	10%	25%	32%	18%	6%	1%	0%	-
Raiders	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	1%	7%	19%	36%	21%	9%	4%	-
Broncos	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0%	2%	6%	18%	27%	28%	15%	0%
Eels	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	2%	5%	22%	30%	37%	2%
Titans	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	1%	8%	19%	28%	37%	3%
Dragons	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0%	1%	4%	93%

Reading the table: Each row shows the probability of that team finishing in each position. For example, if a team has 25% in the "1st" column, they finished first in 25% of the 1000 simulated seasons. Each row should sum to approximately 100%.

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Broncos	Home	85%	Easy
21	Eels	Away	85%	Easy
22	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
23	Warriors	Away	65%	Moderate
24	Roosters	Home	78%	Easy
25	Storm	Away	74%	Easy
26	Bulldogs	Home	85%	Easy
27	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
18	Knights	Away	56%	Hard
19	Sharks	Home	68%	Moderate
20	Cowboys	Home	72%	Easy
22	Dragons	Away	85%	Easy
23	Broncos	Home	85%	Easy
24	Sea Eagles	Away	41%	Hard
25	Eels	Home	85%	Easy
26	Roosters	Away	46%	Hard
27	Titans	Away	79%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Wests Tigers	Away	72%	Easy
20	Dragons	Home	85%	Easy
21	Bulldogs	Away	63%	Moderate
22	Titans	Away	75%	Easy
23	Panthers	Home	34%	Very Hard
24	Broncos	Away	71%	Easy
25	Rabbitohs	Away	52%	Hard
26	Knights	Home	67%	Moderate
27	Sea Eagles	Home	53%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Eels	Home	85%	Easy
20	Storm	Home	68%	Moderate
21	Knights	Away	52%	Hard
22	Cowboys	Away	54%	Hard
23	Bulldogs	Home	77%	Easy
24	Panthers	Away	21%	Very Hard
25	Wests Tigers	Home	84%	Easy
26	Dolphins	Home	53%	Hard
27	Rabbitohs	Away	53%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
18	Eels	Away	80%	Easy
19	Cowboys	Home	72%	Easy
20	Titans	Away	78%	Easy
21	Sharks	Home	68%	Moderate
23	Storm	Away	56%	Hard
24	Dolphins	Home	58%	Hard
25	Knights	Away	56%	Hard
26	Dragons	Home	85%	Easy
27	Warriors	Away	46%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
18	Dolphins	Home	43%	Hard
19	Rabbitohs	Away	42%	Hard
20	Sharks	Away	38%	Very Hard
21	Roosters	Home	47%	Hard
22	Broncos	Away	62%	Moderate
23	Raiders	Away	62%	Moderate
24	Titans	Home	80%	Easy
25	Sea Eagles	Home	43%	Hard
26	Warriors	Away	32%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
18	Broncos	Away	66%	Moderate
19	Dolphins	Away	31%	Very Hard
20	Knights	Home	61%	Moderate
21	Sea Eagles	Away	31%	Very Hard
22	Rabbitohs	Home	62%	Moderate
23	Dragons	Away	79%	Easy
24	Raiders	Home	78%	Easy
25	Titans	Away	70%	Easy
26	Eels	Away	71%	Easy
27	Storm	Home	61%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Sea Eagles	Away	27%	Very Hard
20	Dolphins	Away	27%	Very Hard
21	Broncos	Home	75%	Easy
22	Roosters	Home	45%	Hard
23	Titans	Away	66%	Moderate
24	Eels	Away	67%	Moderate
26	Wests Tigers	Home	76%	Easy
27	Raiders	Home	75%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Knights	Home	57%	Hard
20	Raiders	Away	61%	Moderate
21	Storm	Home	57%	Hard
22	Sharks	Away	37%	Very Hard
23	Eels	Home	80%	Easy
24	Bulldogs	Away	53%	Hard
25	Warriors	Home	47%	Hard
26	Titans	Away	66%	Moderate
27	Roosters	Home	46%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Raiders	Home	66%	Moderate
20	Wests Tigers	Home	67%	Moderate
21	Warriors	Home	36%	Very Hard
22	Storm	Away	30%	Very Hard
23	Roosters	Away	22%	Very Hard
24	Rabbitohs	Home	46%	Hard
25	Dragons	Away	67%	Moderate
26	Panthers	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Broncos	Home	66%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Titans	Home	79%	Easy
20	Roosters	Away	31%	Very Hard
21	Rabbitohs	Away	42%	Hard
22	Bulldogs	Home	69%	Moderate
23	Sea Eagles	Home	43%	Hard
25	Panthers	Home	25%	Very Hard
26	Broncos	Away	62%	Moderate
27	Sharks	Away	38%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
18	Dragons	Away	57%	Hard
19	Warriors	Home	27%	Very Hard
20	Bulldogs	Away	32%	Very Hard
21	Raiders	Away	39%	Very Hard
22	Eels	Home	63%	Moderate
24	Dragons	Home	72%	Easy
25	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
26	Cowboys	Away	23%	Very Hard
27	Panthers	Away	15%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Bulldogs	Away	33%	Very Hard
20	Rabbitohs	Home	38%	Very Hard
21	Wests Tigers	Home	60%	Moderate
22	Panthers	Away	15%	Very Hard
23	Knights	Home	37%	Very Hard
24	Sharks	Away	21%	Very Hard
25	Broncos	Home	58%	Hard
27	Cowboys	Away	24%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
18	Sharks	Home	33%	Very Hard
20	Panthers	Away	15%	Very Hard
21	Cowboys	Away	24%	Very Hard
22	Knights	Home	37%	Very Hard
23	Dolphins	Away	15%	Very Hard
24	Warriors	Home	28%	Very Hard
25	Raiders	Away	41%	Hard
26	Storm	Home	37%	Very Hard
27	Bulldogs	Away	33%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
18	Sea Eagles	Home	19%	Very Hard
19	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
21	Panthers	Home	15%	Very Hard
22	Wests Tigers	Away	36%	Very Hard
23	Rabbitohs	Away	19%	Very Hard
24	Cowboys	Home	32%	Very Hard
25	Dolphins	Away	15%	Very Hard
26	Sharks	Home	28%	Very Hard
27	Dragons	Away	52%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
19	Storm	Away	20%	Very Hard
20	Sea Eagles	Home	21%	Very Hard
21	Dragons	Away	53%	Hard
22	Warriors	Home	24%	Very Hard
23	Cowboys	Home	33%	Very Hard
24	Knights	Away	19%	Very Hard
25	Sharks	Home	29%	Very Hard
26	Rabbitohs	Home	33%	Very Hard
27	Dolphins	Home	20%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
18	Wests Tigers	Home	42%	Hard
20	Warriors	Away	15%	Very Hard
21	Titans	Home	46%	Hard
22	Dolphins	Home	15%	Very Hard
23	Sharks	Home	20%	Very Hard
24	Wests Tigers	Away	27%	Very Hard
25	Bulldogs	Home	32%	Very Hard
26	Sea Eagles	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Eels	Home	47%	Hard

Round 18 Predictions (75 total matches across 10 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Dragons	1267	Wests Tigers	1374	42%
Broncos	1387	Sharks	1559	33%
Eels	1338	Sea Eagles	1638	19%
Knights	1535	Dolphins	1639	43%

Round 1 of 10 (4 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Finals Bracket Preview

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Week 2 - Semi Finals

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

Week 4 - Grand Final

Most Likely Grand Final

All Championship Contenders

Ladder Position Distribution

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Panthers 8 games remaining Expected: 6.4 wins 80% win rate

Dolphins 9 games remaining Expected: 6.2 wins 69% win rate

Warriors 9 games remaining Expected: 5.8 wins 64% win rate

Roosters 9 games remaining Expected: 5.5 wins 61% win rate

Sea Eagles 9 games remaining Expected: 6.0 wins 67% win rate

Knights 9 games remaining Expected: 4.5 wins 50% win rate

Sharks 10 games remaining Expected: 6.1 wins 61% win rate

Cowboys 8 games remaining Expected: 4.6 wins 58% win rate

Rabbitohs 9 games remaining Expected: 5.1 wins 57% win rate

Bulldogs 9 games remaining Expected: 4.2 wins 46% win rate

Storm 8 games remaining Expected: 3.9 wins 49% win rate

Wests Tigers 9 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 38% win rate

Raiders 8 games remaining Expected: 2.9 wins 36% win rate

Broncos 9 games remaining Expected: 2.7 wins 30% win rate

Eels 9 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 26% win rate

Titans 9 games remaining Expected: 2.6 wins 29% win rate

Dragons 9 games remaining Expected: 2.6 wins 29% win rate

Round 18 Predictions (75 total matches across 10 rounds)