Season Simulation

Simulation Details
Competition:
Telstra Premiership
Season:
2025
Run Date:
Aug 03, 2025 09:02
Current Round:
Round 22
Iterations:
1000
Parameters
Elo Ratings:
Enabled
Home Advantage:
0.57
Predicted Final Ladder
Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

  • Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
  • Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
  • Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
  • Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
  • Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos Team W L D Pts PF PA Diff Top 2 % Top 4 % Finals % 🥇 % 🏆 % 🥄 %
1 Raiders 18.3 5.7 0.0 44.6 648.7 492.1 156.6 86% 100% 100% 49% 0% 0%
2 Storm 17.4 6.6 0.0 42.8 718.0 475.8 242.2 69% 98% 100% 35% 0% 0%
3 Bulldogs 17.3 6.7 0.0 42.5 563.6 423.0 140.6 42% 96% 100% 15% 0% 0%
4 Warriors 14.9 9.1 0.0 37.8 508.0 475.4 32.6 0% 38% 97% 0% 0% 0%
5 Panthers 14.1 8.9 1.0 37.3 567.1 474.7 92.4 0% 30% 98% 0% 0% 0%
6 Sharks 14.4 9.6 0.0 36.9 533.7 496.5 37.2 0% 22% 94% 0% 0% 0%
7 Broncos 13.3 10.7 0.0 34.6 645.8 524.3 121.5 0% 7% 88% 0% 0% 0%
8 Dolphins 13.2 10.8 0.0 34.4 678.0 496.3 181.7 0% 5% 86% 0% 0% 0%
9 Roosters 11.8 12.2 0.0 31.5 575.3 551.5 23.7 0% 0% 20% 0% 0% 0%
10 Sea Eagles 11.4 12.6 0.0 30.7 506.9 503.3 3.7 0% 0% 12% 0% 0% 0%
11 Cowboys 9.3 13.7 1.0 27.6 490.8 651.2 -160.4 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
12 Dragons 8.8 15.2 0.0 25.7 514.7 583.1 -68.4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
13 Wests Tigers 8.6 15.4 0.0 25.3 436.6 584.9 -148.2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%
14 Eels 8.1 15.9 0.0 24.2 420.3 579.8 -159.5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12%
15 Knights 7.7 16.3 0.0 23.3 354.0 482.5 -128.5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7%
16 Rabbitohs 7.6 16.4 0.0 23.1 397.2 601.1 -203.9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 34%
17 Titans 6.8 17.2 0.0 21.7 475.2 638.8 -163.6 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 41%
Finals Bracket Preview
Based on current average ladder positions
Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals
1st Qualifying Final
Raiders (1st) vs Warriors (4th)
Home: Raiders
Raiders: 0% to win championship
Warriors: 0% to win championship
2nd Qualifying Final
Storm (2nd) vs Bulldogs (3rd)
Home: Storm
Storm: 0% to win championship
Bulldogs: 0% to win championship
1st Elimination Final
Panthers (5th) vs Dolphins (8th)
Home: Panthers
Panthers: 0% to win championship
Dolphins: 0% to win championship
2nd Elimination Final
Sharks (6th) vs Broncos (7th)
Home: Sharks
Sharks: 0% to win championship
Broncos: 0% to win championship
Week 2 - Semi Finals
1st Semi Final
Warriors vs Panthers
Home: Warriors
Most likely based on championship odds
2nd Semi Final
Bulldogs vs Sharks
Home: Bulldogs
Most likely based on championship odds
Week 3 - Preliminary Finals
1st Preliminary Final
Raiders vs Bulldogs
Home: Raiders
Most likely progression
2nd Preliminary Final
Storm vs Panthers
Home: Storm
Most likely progression
Week 4 - Grand Final
🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆
Most Likely Grand Final
Raiders vs Storm
0% to win 0% to win
Neutral Venue
All Championship Contenders
How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.
Ladder Position Distribution
Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

No position distribution data available for this simulation.

Remaining Fixtures by Team
Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
23 Sea Eagles Home
72%
Easy
25 Panthers Away
33%
Very Hard
26 Wests Tigers Home
85%
Easy
27 Dolphins Away
36%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
23 Broncos Home
77%
Easy
24 Panthers Away
51%
Hard
25 Bulldogs Home
74%
Easy
26 Roosters Home
76%
Easy
27 Broncos Away
64%
Moderate

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Wests Tigers Away
76%
Easy
23 Warriors Home
68%
Moderate
24 Roosters Away
44%
Hard
25 Storm Away
25%
Very Hard
26 Panthers Home
49%
Hard
27 Sharks Home
61%
Moderate

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
23 Bulldogs Away
31%
Very Hard
24 Dragons Home
72%
Easy
25 Titans Away
66%
Moderate
26 Eels Home
75%
Easy
27 Sea Eagles Away
47%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
23 Knights Away
76%
Easy
24 Storm Home
48%
Hard
25 Raiders Home
66%
Moderate
26 Bulldogs Away
50%
Hard
27 Dragons Away
74%
Easy

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Cowboys Home
76%
Easy
23 Dragons Away
64%
Moderate
24 Titans Home
84%
Easy
26 Knights Home
79%
Easy
27 Bulldogs Away
38%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
23 Storm Away
22%
Very Hard
24 Dolphins Home
48%
Hard
25 Knights Away
64%
Moderate
26 Cowboys Away
61%
Moderate
27 Storm Home
35%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
23 Roosters Home
65%
Moderate
24 Broncos Away
51%
Hard
25 Sea Eagles Away
62%
Moderate
26 Titans Home
85%
Easy
27 Raiders Home
63%
Moderate

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
23 Dolphins Away
34%
Very Hard
24 Bulldogs Home
55%
Hard
25 Eels Away
68%
Moderate
26 Storm Away
23%
Very Hard
27 Rabbitohs Home
84%
Easy

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
23 Raiders Away
27%
Very Hard
24 Wests Tigers Away
62%
Moderate
25 Dolphins Home
37%
Very Hard
26 Dragons Away
52%
Hard
27 Warriors Home
52%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Sharks Away
23%
Very Hard
23 Eels Away
47%
Hard
24 Knights Home
61%
Moderate
25 Wests Tigers Away
54%
Hard
26 Broncos Home
38%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
23 Sharks Home
35%
Very Hard
24 Warriors Away
27%
Very Hard
25 Rabbitohs Away
52%
Hard
26 Sea Eagles Home
47%
Hard
27 Panthers Home
25%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Bulldogs Home
23%
Very Hard
24 Sea Eagles Home
37%
Very Hard
25 Cowboys Home
45%
Hard
26 Raiders Away
15%
Very Hard
27 Titans Away
41%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
23 Cowboys Home
52%
Hard
24 Rabbitohs Away
48%
Hard
25 Roosters Home
31%
Very Hard
26 Warriors Away
24%
Very Hard
27 Knights Home
56%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
23 Panthers Home
23%
Very Hard
24 Cowboys Away
38%
Very Hard
25 Broncos Home
35%
Very Hard
26 Sharks Away
20%
Very Hard
27 Eels Away
43%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
23 Titans Away
40%
Hard
24 Eels Home
51%
Hard
25 Dragons Home
47%
Hard
27 Roosters Away
15%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
23 Rabbitohs Home
59%
Hard
24 Sharks Away
15%
Very Hard
25 Warriors Home
33%
Very Hard
26 Dolphins Away
15%
Very Hard
27 Wests Tigers Home
58%
Hard
Round 23 Predictions (42 total matches across 6 rounds)
Home Team Home Elo Away Team Away Elo Home Win %
Storm 1720 Broncos 1558 77%
Knights 1395 Panthers 1652 23%
Raiders 1591 Sea Eagles 1481 72%
Dragons 1409 Sharks 1573 35%
Dolphins 1627 Roosters 1573 65%
Bulldogs 1594 Warriors 1518 68%
Titans 1339 Rabbitohs 1332 59%
Eels 1380 Cowboys 1423 52%