Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Aug 03, 2025 09:02
Current Round:: Round 22
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes and final ladder positions:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The percentages show how often each team achieved that position across all simulations. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	D	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🥄 %
1	Raiders	18.3	5.7	0.0	44.6	648.7	492.1	156.6	86%	100%	100%	49%	0%
2	Storm	17.4	6.6	0.0	42.8	718.0	475.8	242.2	69%	98%	100%	35%	0%
3	Bulldogs	17.3	6.7	0.0	42.5	563.6	423.0	140.6	42%	96%	100%	15%	0%
4	Warriors	14.9	9.1	0.0	37.8	508.0	475.4	32.6	0%	38%	97%	0%	0%
5	Panthers	14.1	8.9	1.0	37.3	567.1	474.7	92.4	0%	30%	98%	0%	0%
6	Sharks	14.4	9.6	0.0	36.9	533.7	496.5	37.2	0%	22%	94%	0%	0%
7	Broncos	13.3	10.7	0.0	34.6	645.8	524.3	121.5	0%	7%	88%	0%	0%
8	Dolphins	13.2	10.8	0.0	34.4	678.0	496.3	181.7	0%	5%	86%	0%	0%
9	Roosters	11.8	12.2	0.0	31.5	575.3	551.5	23.7	0%	0%	20%	0%	0%
10	Sea Eagles	11.4	12.6	0.0	30.7	506.9	503.3	3.7	0%	0%	12%	0%	0%
11	Cowboys	9.3	13.7	1.0	27.6	490.8	651.2	-160.4	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%
12	Dragons	8.8	15.2	0.0	25.7	514.7	583.1	-68.4	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
13	Wests Tigers	8.6	15.4	0.0	25.3	436.6	584.9	-148.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
14	Eels	8.1	15.9	0.0	24.2	420.3	579.8	-159.5	0%	0%	0%	0%	12%
15	Knights	7.7	16.3	0.0	23.3	354.0	482.5	-128.5	0%	0%	0%	0%	7%
16	Rabbitohs	7.6	16.4	0.0	23.1	397.2	601.1	-203.9	0%	0%	0%	0%	34%
17	Titans	6.8	17.2	0.0	21.7	475.2	638.8	-163.6	0%	0%	0%	0%	41%

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Sea Eagles	Home	72%	Easy
25	Panthers	Away	33%	Very Hard
26	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
27	Dolphins	Away	36%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Broncos	Home	77%	Easy
24	Panthers	Away	51%	Hard
25	Bulldogs	Home	74%	Easy
26	Roosters	Home	76%	Easy
27	Broncos	Away	64%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Wests Tigers	Away	76%	Easy
23	Warriors	Home	68%	Moderate
24	Roosters	Away	44%	Hard
25	Storm	Away	25%	Very Hard
26	Panthers	Home	49%	Hard
27	Sharks	Home	61%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Bulldogs	Away	31%	Very Hard
24	Dragons	Home	72%	Easy
25	Titans	Away	66%	Moderate
26	Eels	Home	75%	Easy
27	Sea Eagles	Away	47%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Knights	Away	76%	Easy
24	Storm	Home	48%	Hard
25	Raiders	Home	66%	Moderate
26	Bulldogs	Away	50%	Hard
27	Dragons	Away	74%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Cowboys	Home	76%	Easy
23	Dragons	Away	64%	Moderate
24	Titans	Home	84%	Easy
26	Knights	Home	79%	Easy
27	Bulldogs	Away	38%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Storm	Away	22%	Very Hard
24	Dolphins	Home	48%	Hard
25	Knights	Away	64%	Moderate
26	Cowboys	Away	61%	Moderate
27	Storm	Home	35%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Roosters	Home	65%	Moderate
24	Broncos	Away	51%	Hard
25	Sea Eagles	Away	62%	Moderate
26	Titans	Home	85%	Easy
27	Raiders	Home	63%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Dolphins	Away	34%	Very Hard
24	Bulldogs	Home	55%	Hard
25	Eels	Away	68%	Moderate
26	Storm	Away	23%	Very Hard
27	Rabbitohs	Home	84%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Raiders	Away	27%	Very Hard
24	Wests Tigers	Away	62%	Moderate
25	Dolphins	Home	37%	Very Hard
26	Dragons	Away	52%	Hard
27	Warriors	Home	52%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Sharks	Away	23%	Very Hard
23	Eels	Away	47%	Hard
24	Knights	Home	61%	Moderate
25	Wests Tigers	Away	54%	Hard
26	Broncos	Home	38%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Sharks	Home	35%	Very Hard
24	Warriors	Away	27%	Very Hard
25	Rabbitohs	Away	52%	Hard
26	Sea Eagles	Home	47%	Hard
27	Panthers	Home	25%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Bulldogs	Home	23%	Very Hard
24	Sea Eagles	Home	37%	Very Hard
25	Cowboys	Home	45%	Hard
26	Raiders	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Titans	Away	41%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Cowboys	Home	52%	Hard
24	Rabbitohs	Away	48%	Hard
25	Roosters	Home	31%	Very Hard
26	Warriors	Away	24%	Very Hard
27	Knights	Home	56%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Panthers	Home	23%	Very Hard
24	Cowboys	Away	38%	Very Hard
25	Broncos	Home	35%	Very Hard
26	Sharks	Away	20%	Very Hard
27	Eels	Away	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Titans	Away	40%	Hard
24	Eels	Home	51%	Hard
25	Dragons	Home	47%	Hard
27	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Rabbitohs	Home	59%	Hard
24	Sharks	Away	15%	Very Hard
25	Warriors	Home	33%	Very Hard
26	Dolphins	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Wests Tigers	Home	58%	Hard

Round 22 Predictions (42 total matches across 6 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Wests Tigers	1335	Bulldogs	1594	23%
Sharks	1573	Cowboys	1423	76%

Round 1 of 6 (2 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Raiders 4 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 57% win rate

Storm 5 games remaining Expected: 3.4 wins 69% win rate

Bulldogs 6 games remaining Expected: 3.3 wins 54% win rate

Warriors 5 games remaining Expected: 2.9 wins 59% win rate

Panthers 5 games remaining Expected: 3.2 wins 63% win rate

Sharks 5 games remaining Expected: 3.4 wins 69% win rate

Broncos 5 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 46% win rate

Dolphins 5 games remaining Expected: 3.3 wins 66% win rate

Roosters 5 games remaining Expected: 2.7 wins 53% win rate

Sea Eagles 5 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 47% win rate

Cowboys 5 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 45% win rate

Dragons 5 games remaining Expected: 1.9 wins 38% win rate

Wests Tigers 5 games remaining Expected: 1.6 wins 33% win rate

Eels 5 games remaining Expected: 2.1 wins 43% win rate

Knights 5 games remaining Expected: 1.6 wins 32% win rate

Rabbitohs 4 games remaining Expected: 1.5 wins 39% win rate

Titans 5 games remaining Expected: 1.8 wins 36% win rate

Round 22 Predictions (42 total matches across 6 rounds)