Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Aug 02, 2025 22:11
Current Round:: Round 22
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes and final ladder positions:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The percentages show how often each team achieved that position across all simulations. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	D	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🥄 %
1	Raiders	19.1	4.9	0.0	46.1	662.6	495.9	166.7	94%	100%	100%	70%	0%
2	Storm	17.5	6.5	0.0	43.0	717.5	474.2	243.3	68%	99%	99%	19%	0%
3	Bulldogs	17.3	6.7	0.0	42.6	562.6	422.3	140.3	36%	96%	100%	9%	0%
4	Warriors	14.9	9.1	0.0	37.9	508.5	476.1	32.4	0%	36%	97%	0%	0%
5	Sharks	14.5	9.5	0.0	37.0	533.9	495.7	38.2	0%	25%	95%	0%	0%
6	Panthers	13.9	9.1	1.0	36.7	557.1	465.0	92.0	0%	26%	96%	0%	0%
7	Broncos	13.4	10.6	0.0	34.7	645.7	524.3	121.4	0%	7%	88%	0%	0%
8	Dolphins	13.2	10.8	0.0	34.5	679.0	496.9	182.1	0%	6%	87%	0%	0%
9	Sea Eagles	12.0	12.0	0.0	32.0	529.4	507.2	22.2	0%	0%	27%	0%	0%
10	Roosters	11.0	13.0	0.0	30.1	574.0	569.5	4.5	0%	0%	7%	0%	0%
11	Cowboys	9.3	13.7	1.0	27.6	491.3	651.0	-159.7	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
12	Wests Tigers	8.6	15.4	0.0	25.2	435.3	584.5	-149.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
13	Eels	8.1	15.9	0.0	24.2	420.9	580.3	-159.4	0%	0%	0%	0%	13%
14	Dragons	8.1	15.9	0.0	24.1	517.1	595.6	-78.5	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
15	Knights	7.6	16.4	0.0	23.3	354.2	482.9	-128.7	0%	0%	0%	0%	9%
16	Rabbitohs	7.6	16.4	0.0	23.2	397.1	600.5	-203.4	0%	0%	0%	0%	34%
17	Titans	7.0	17.0	0.0	22.0	464.8	629.0	-164.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	36%

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Dragons	Away	71%	Easy
23	Sea Eagles	Home	71%	Easy
25	Panthers	Away	36%	Very Hard
26	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
27	Dolphins	Away	39%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Broncos	Home	77%	Easy
24	Panthers	Away	52%	Hard
25	Bulldogs	Home	74%	Easy
26	Roosters	Home	78%	Easy
27	Broncos	Away	64%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Wests Tigers	Away	76%	Easy
23	Warriors	Home	68%	Moderate
24	Roosters	Away	48%	Hard
25	Storm	Away	25%	Very Hard
26	Panthers	Home	50%	Hard
27	Sharks	Home	61%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Bulldogs	Away	31%	Very Hard
24	Dragons	Home	74%	Easy
25	Titans	Away	66%	Moderate
26	Eels	Home	75%	Easy
27	Sea Eagles	Away	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Cowboys	Home	76%	Easy
23	Dragons	Away	67%	Moderate
24	Titans	Home	83%	Easy
26	Knights	Home	79%	Easy
27	Bulldogs	Away	38%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Titans	Away	80%	Easy
23	Knights	Away	75%	Easy
24	Storm	Home	47%	Hard
25	Raiders	Home	63%	Moderate
26	Bulldogs	Away	49%	Hard
27	Dragons	Away	75%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Storm	Away	22%	Very Hard
24	Dolphins	Home	48%	Hard
25	Knights	Away	64%	Moderate
26	Cowboys	Away	61%	Moderate
27	Storm	Home	35%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Roosters	Home	68%	Moderate
24	Broncos	Away	51%	Hard
25	Sea Eagles	Away	59%	Hard
26	Titans	Home	85%	Easy
27	Raiders	Home	60%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Roosters	Home	51%	Hard
23	Raiders	Away	28%	Very Hard
24	Wests Tigers	Away	65%	Moderate
25	Dolphins	Home	40%	Hard
26	Dragons	Away	57%	Hard
27	Warriors	Home	56%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Sea Eagles	Away	48%	Hard
23	Dolphins	Away	31%	Very Hard
24	Bulldogs	Home	51%	Hard
25	Eels	Away	65%	Moderate
26	Storm	Away	21%	Very Hard
27	Rabbitohs	Home	83%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Sharks	Away	23%	Very Hard
23	Eels	Away	47%	Hard
24	Knights	Home	61%	Moderate
25	Wests Tigers	Away	54%	Hard
26	Broncos	Home	38%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Bulldogs	Home	23%	Very Hard
24	Sea Eagles	Home	34%	Very Hard
25	Cowboys	Home	45%	Hard
26	Raiders	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Titans	Away	40%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Cowboys	Home	52%	Hard
24	Rabbitohs	Away	48%	Hard
25	Roosters	Home	34%	Very Hard
26	Warriors	Away	24%	Very Hard
27	Knights	Home	56%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Raiders	Home	28%	Very Hard
23	Sharks	Home	32%	Very Hard
24	Warriors	Away	25%	Very Hard
25	Rabbitohs	Away	50%	Hard
26	Sea Eagles	Home	42%	Hard
27	Panthers	Home	24%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Panthers	Home	24%	Very Hard
24	Cowboys	Away	38%	Very Hard
25	Broncos	Home	35%	Very Hard
26	Sharks	Away	20%	Very Hard
27	Eels	Away	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Titans	Away	40%	Hard
24	Eels	Home	51%	Hard
25	Dragons	Home	49%	Hard
27	Roosters	Away	16%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Panthers	Home	19%	Very Hard
23	Rabbitohs	Home	59%	Hard
24	Sharks	Away	16%	Very Hard
25	Warriors	Home	33%	Very Hard
26	Dolphins	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Wests Tigers	Home	59%	Hard

Round 22 Predictions (45 total matches across 6 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Titans	1343	Panthers	1649	19%
Dragons	1392	Raiders	1608	28%
Sea Eagles	1504	Roosters	1551	51%
Wests Tigers	1335	Bulldogs	1594	23%
Sharks	1573	Cowboys	1423	76%

Round 1 of 6 (5 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Raiders 5 games remaining Expected: 3.0 wins 61% win rate

Storm 5 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 69% win rate

Bulldogs 6 games remaining Expected: 3.3 wins 55% win rate

Warriors 5 games remaining Expected: 2.9 wins 58% win rate

Sharks 5 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 69% win rate

Panthers 6 games remaining Expected: 3.9 wins 66% win rate

Broncos 5 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 46% win rate

Dolphins 5 games remaining Expected: 3.3 wins 65% win rate

Sea Eagles 6 games remaining Expected: 3.0 wins 50% win rate

Roosters 6 games remaining Expected: 3.0 wins 50% win rate

Cowboys 5 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 45% win rate

Wests Tigers 5 games remaining Expected: 1.6 wins 32% win rate

Eels 5 games remaining Expected: 2.2 wins 43% win rate

Dragons 6 games remaining Expected: 2.0 wins 34% win rate

Knights 5 games remaining Expected: 1.6 wins 32% win rate

Rabbitohs 4 games remaining Expected: 1.6 wins 40% win rate

Titans 6 games remaining Expected: 2.0 wins 34% win rate

Round 22 Predictions (45 total matches across 6 rounds)