Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Jul 28, 2025 00:16
Current Round:: Round 4
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes and final ladder positions:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The percentages show how often each team achieved that position across all simulations. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	9.1	1.9	18.2	282.6	195.8	86.8	83%	98%	99%	55%	0%
2	Broncos	8.0	3.0	16.0	290.5	182.9	107.7	67%	93%	98%	28%	0%
3	Knights	7.7	3.3	15.5	254.8	189.9	65.0	37%	89%	98%	13%	0%
4	Cowboys	5.9	5.1	11.7	184.5	172.1	12.4	2%	29%	66%	0%	0%
5	Bulldogs	5.7	5.3	11.3	194.0	197.5	-3.5	1%	22%	54%	0%	0%
6	Sharks	5.5	5.5	11.1	267.5	217.1	50.4	4%	31%	64%	1%	0%
7	Eels	5.2	5.8	10.4	186.6	193.7	-7.0	1%	13%	40%	0%	0%
8	Titans	5.2	5.8	10.3	153.6	191.3	-37.7	0%	8%	28%	0%	0%
9	Dragons	5.1	5.9	10.3	179.5	197.2	-17.7	1%	9%	33%	0%	0%
10	Warriors	4.3	6.7	8.6	147.2	186.5	-39.3	0%	3%	14%	0%	2%
11	Wests Tigers	2.6	8.4	5.2	120.7	178.0	-57.3	0%	0%	1%	0%	19%
12	Raiders	1.7	9.3	3.3	96.6	256.2	-159.7	0%	0%	0%	0%	76%

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Wests Tigers	Away	80%	Easy
6	Titans	Away	72%	Easy
7	Knights	Home	64%	Moderate
8	Eels	Away	73%	Easy
9	Cowboys	Away	73%	Easy
10	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
11	Sharks	Home	71%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Sharks	Home	67%	Moderate
6	Raiders	Away	81%	Easy
7	Eels	Home	81%	Easy
8	Knights	Away	43%	Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	75%	Easy
10	Warriors	Away	66%	Moderate
11	Cowboys	Home	80%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
6	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
7	Roosters	Away	35%	Very Hard
8	Broncos	Home	56%	Hard
9	Sharks	Away	50%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	79%	Easy
11	Dragons	Home	79%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Warriors	Home	56%	Hard
6	Eels	Away	42%	Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	50%	Hard
8	Wests Tigers	Away	52%	Hard
9	Roosters	Home	26%	Very Hard
10	Dragons	Away	41%	Hard
11	Broncos	Away	19%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Titans	Away	49%	Hard
6	Warriors	Home	63%	Moderate
7	Cowboys	Away	49%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	79%	Easy
9	Broncos	Away	24%	Very Hard
10	Sharks	Home	48%	Hard
11	Eels	Away	50%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Broncos	Away	32%	Very Hard
6	Dragons	Away	58%	Hard
7	Titans	Home	73%	Easy
8	Warriors	Away	57%	Hard
9	Knights	Home	49%	Hard
10	Bulldogs	Away	51%	Hard
11	Roosters	Away	28%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Dragons	Home	56%	Hard
6	Cowboys	Home	57%	Hard
7	Broncos	Away	18%	Very Hard
8	Roosters	Home	26%	Very Hard
9	Titans	Away	40%	Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Home	67%	Moderate
11	Bulldogs	Home	49%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Bulldogs	Home	50%	Hard
6	Roosters	Home	27%	Very Hard
7	Sharks	Away	26%	Very Hard
8	Dragons	Home	58%	Hard
9	Eels	Home	59%	Hard
10	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard
11	Raiders	Home	74%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Eels	Away	43%	Hard
6	Sharks	Home	41%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	53%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	41%	Hard
9	Warriors	Home	56%	Hard
10	Cowboys	Home	58%	Hard
11	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Cowboys	Away	43%	Hard
6	Bulldogs	Away	36%	Very Hard
7	Raiders	Home	75%	Easy
8	Sharks	Home	42%	Hard
9	Dragons	Away	43%	Hard
10	Broncos	Home	33%	Very Hard
11	Wests Tigers	Away	54%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Roosters	Home	19%	Very Hard
6	Knights	Away	15%	Very Hard
7	Dragons	Home	46%	Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	47%	Hard
9	Raiders	Away	49%	Hard
10	Eels	Away	32%	Very Hard
11	Warriors	Home	45%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
5	Knights	Away	15%	Very Hard
6	Broncos	Home	18%	Very Hard
7	Warriors	Away	24%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	20%	Very Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Home	50%	Hard
10	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
11	Titans	Away	25%	Very Hard

Round 5 Predictions (42 total matches across 7 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Titans	1455	Bulldogs	1505	50%
Wests Tigers	1377	Roosters	1680	19%
Broncos	1642	Sharks	1573	67%
Cowboys	1450	Warriors	1464	56%
Knights	1632	Raiders	1323	85%
Eels	1445	Dragons	1455	56%

Round 1 of 7 (6 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 7 games remaining Expected: 5.2 wins 74% win rate

Broncos 7 games remaining Expected: 5.0 wins 71% win rate

Knights 7 games remaining Expected: 4.7 wins 67% win rate

Cowboys 7 games remaining Expected: 2.9 wins 41% win rate

Bulldogs 7 games remaining Expected: 3.7 wins 52% win rate

Sharks 7 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 50% win rate

Eels 7 games remaining Expected: 3.2 wins 45% win rate

Titans 7 games remaining Expected: 3.2 wins 45% win rate

Dragons 7 games remaining Expected: 3.2 wins 45% win rate

Warriors 7 games remaining Expected: 3.3 wins 47% win rate

Wests Tigers 7 games remaining Expected: 2.6 wins 37% win rate

Raiders 7 games remaining Expected: 1.7 wins 24% win rate

Round 5 Predictions (42 total matches across 7 rounds)