Season Simulation

Simulation Details
Competition:
Telstra Premiership
Season:
2025
Run Date:
Jul 28, 2025 00:14
Current Round:
Round 21
Iterations:
1000
Parameters
Elo Ratings:
Enabled
Home Advantage:
0.57
Predicted Final Ladder
Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

  • Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
  • Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
  • Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
  • Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
  • Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos Team W L D Pts PF PA Diff Top 2 % Top 4 % Finals % 🥇 % 🏆 % 🥄 %
1 Raiders 19.0 5.0 0.0 44.0 662.9 497.1 165.8 94% 100% 100% 70% 0% 0%
2 Storm 17.3 6.7 0.0 40.7 721.9 479.7 242.1 64% 97% 100% 18% 0% 0%
3 Bulldogs 17.3 6.7 0.0 40.6 564.3 423.8 140.5 38% 96% 100% 10% 0% 0%
4 Warriors 15.5 8.5 0.0 36.9 516.2 481.1 35.1 2% 54% 98% 0% 0% 0%
5 Sharks 14.4 9.6 0.0 34.9 532.1 495.0 37.1 0% 19% 97% 0% 0% 0%
6 Panthers 13.9 9.1 1.0 34.9 558.3 465.4 92.9 0% 22% 98% 0% 0% 0%
7 Broncos 13.0 11.0 0.0 32.1 597.8 519.2 78.6 0% 4% 84% 0% 0% 0%
8 Dolphins 12.8 11.2 0.0 31.6 684.1 503.0 181.1 0% 4% 77% 0% 0% 0%
9 Sea Eagles 12.0 12.0 0.0 29.9 528.8 507.4 21.4 0% 0% 33% 0% 0% 0%
10 Roosters 11.1 12.9 0.0 28.1 577.6 572.5 5.1 0% 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
11 Cowboys 9.2 13.8 1.0 25.5 490.8 651.7 -160.8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
12 Wests Tigers 8.6 15.4 0.0 23.2 436.4 584.6 -148.2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%
13 Eels 8.3 15.7 0.0 22.6 428.8 586.8 -158.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12%
14 Dragons 8.0 16.0 0.0 22.0 518.1 596.9 -78.8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5%
15 Rabbitohs 7.9 16.1 0.0 21.7 399.9 560.5 -160.6 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22%
16 Knights 7.7 16.3 0.0 21.3 353.5 481.8 -128.3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10%
17 Titans 7.0 17.0 0.0 20.0 465.7 630.8 -165.1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 43%
Finals Bracket Preview
Based on current average ladder positions
Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals
1st Qualifying Final
Raiders (1st) vs Warriors (4th)
Home: Raiders
Raiders: 0% to win championship
Warriors: 0% to win championship
2nd Qualifying Final
Storm (2nd) vs Bulldogs (3rd)
Home: Storm
Storm: 0% to win championship
Bulldogs: 0% to win championship
1st Elimination Final
Sharks (5th) vs Dolphins (8th)
Home: Sharks
Sharks: 0% to win championship
Dolphins: 0% to win championship
2nd Elimination Final
Panthers (6th) vs Broncos (7th)
Home: Panthers
Panthers: 0% to win championship
Broncos: 0% to win championship
Week 2 - Semi Finals
1st Semi Final
Warriors vs Sharks
Home: Warriors
Most likely based on championship odds
2nd Semi Final
Bulldogs vs Panthers
Home: Bulldogs
Most likely based on championship odds
Week 3 - Preliminary Finals
1st Preliminary Final
Raiders vs Bulldogs
Home: Raiders
Most likely progression
2nd Preliminary Final
Storm vs Warriors
Home: Storm
Most likely progression
Week 4 - Grand Final
🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆
Most Likely Grand Final
Raiders vs Storm
0% to win 0% to win
Neutral Venue
All Championship Contenders
How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.
Ladder Position Distribution
Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

No position distribution data available for this simulation.

Remaining Fixtures by Team
Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Dragons Away
71%
Easy
23 Sea Eagles Home
71%
Easy
25 Panthers Away
36%
Very Hard
26 Wests Tigers Home
85%
Easy
27 Dolphins Away
40%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Eels Away
82%
Easy
23 Broncos Home
79%
Easy
24 Panthers Away
51%
Hard
25 Bulldogs Home
73%
Easy
26 Roosters Home
78%
Easy
27 Broncos Away
66%
Moderate

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Wests Tigers Away
76%
Easy
23 Warriors Home
67%
Moderate
24 Roosters Away
48%
Hard
25 Storm Away
26%
Very Hard
26 Panthers Home
50%
Hard
27 Sharks Home
61%
Moderate

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Dolphins Home
44%
Hard
23 Bulldogs Away
32%
Very Hard
24 Dragons Home
74%
Easy
25 Titans Away
67%
Moderate
26 Eels Home
75%
Easy
27 Sea Eagles Away
44%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Cowboys Home
76%
Easy
23 Dragons Away
67%
Moderate
24 Titans Home
83%
Easy
26 Knights Home
79%
Easy
27 Bulldogs Away
38%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Titans Away
80%
Easy
23 Knights Away
75%
Easy
24 Storm Home
48%
Hard
25 Raiders Home
63%
Moderate
26 Bulldogs Away
49%
Hard
27 Dragons Away
75%
Easy

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Rabbitohs Home
80%
Easy
23 Storm Away
20%
Very Hard
24 Dolphins Home
46%
Hard
25 Knights Away
61%
Moderate
26 Cowboys Away
58%
Hard
27 Storm Home
33%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Warriors Away
55%
Hard
23 Roosters Home
67%
Moderate
24 Broncos Away
53%
Hard
25 Sea Eagles Away
58%
Hard
26 Titans Home
85%
Easy
27 Raiders Home
59%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Roosters Home
51%
Hard
23 Raiders Away
28%
Very Hard
24 Wests Tigers Away
65%
Moderate
25 Dolphins Home
41%
Hard
26 Dragons Away
57%
Hard
27 Warriors Home
55%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Sea Eagles Away
48%
Hard
23 Dolphins Away
32%
Very Hard
24 Bulldogs Home
51%
Hard
25 Eels Away
65%
Moderate
26 Storm Away
21%
Very Hard
27 Rabbitohs Home
81%
Easy

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Sharks Away
23%
Very Hard
23 Eels Away
47%
Hard
24 Knights Home
61%
Moderate
25 Wests Tigers Away
54%
Hard
26 Broncos Home
41%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Bulldogs Home
23%
Very Hard
24 Sea Eagles Home
34%
Very Hard
25 Cowboys Home
45%
Hard
26 Raiders Away
15%
Very Hard
27 Titans Away
40%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Storm Home
17%
Very Hard
23 Cowboys Home
52%
Hard
24 Rabbitohs Away
46%
Hard
25 Roosters Home
34%
Very Hard
26 Warriors Away
24%
Very Hard
27 Knights Home
56%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Raiders Home
28%
Very Hard
23 Sharks Home
32%
Very Hard
24 Warriors Away
25%
Very Hard
25 Rabbitohs Away
47%
Hard
26 Sea Eagles Home
42%
Hard
27 Panthers Home
24%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Broncos Away
19%
Very Hard
23 Titans Away
43%
Hard
24 Eels Home
53%
Hard
25 Dragons Home
52%
Hard
27 Roosters Away
18%
Very Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
23 Panthers Home
24%
Very Hard
24 Cowboys Away
38%
Very Hard
25 Broncos Home
38%
Very Hard
26 Sharks Away
20%
Very Hard
27 Eels Away
43%
Hard

Round Opponent Venue Win % Difficulty
22 Panthers Home
19%
Very Hard
23 Rabbitohs Home
56%
Hard
24 Sharks Away
16%
Very Hard
25 Warriors Home
32%
Very Hard
26 Dolphins Away
15%
Very Hard
27 Wests Tigers Home
59%
Hard
Round 23 Predictions (48 total matches across 6 rounds)
Home Team Home Elo Away Team Away Elo Home Win %
Storm 1716 Broncos 1537 79%
Knights 1395 Panthers 1649 24%
Raiders 1608 Sea Eagles 1504 71%
Dragons 1392 Sharks 1573 32%
Dolphins 1620 Roosters 1551 67%
Bulldogs 1594 Warriors 1525 67%
Titans 1343 Rabbitohs 1353 56%
Eels 1384 Cowboys 1423 52%