Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Jul 28, 2025 00:14
Current Round:: Round 21
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes and final ladder positions:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The percentages show how often each team achieved that position across all simulations. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	D	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🥄 %
1	Raiders	19.0	5.0	0.0	44.0	662.9	497.1	165.8	94%	100%	100%	70%	0%
2	Storm	17.3	6.7	0.0	40.7	721.9	479.7	242.1	64%	97%	100%	18%	0%
3	Bulldogs	17.3	6.7	0.0	40.6	564.3	423.8	140.5	38%	96%	100%	10%	0%
4	Warriors	15.5	8.5	0.0	36.9	516.2	481.1	35.1	2%	54%	98%	0%	0%
5	Sharks	14.4	9.6	0.0	34.9	532.1	495.0	37.1	0%	19%	97%	0%	0%
6	Panthers	13.9	9.1	1.0	34.9	558.3	465.4	92.9	0%	22%	98%	0%	0%
7	Broncos	13.0	11.0	0.0	32.1	597.8	519.2	78.6	0%	4%	84%	0%	0%
8	Dolphins	12.8	11.2	0.0	31.6	684.1	503.0	181.1	0%	4%	77%	0%	0%
9	Sea Eagles	12.0	12.0	0.0	29.9	528.8	507.4	21.4	0%	0%	33%	0%	0%
10	Roosters	11.1	12.9	0.0	28.1	577.6	572.5	5.1	0%	0%	10%	0%	0%
11	Cowboys	9.2	13.8	1.0	25.5	490.8	651.7	-160.8	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
12	Wests Tigers	8.6	15.4	0.0	23.2	436.4	584.6	-148.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
13	Eels	8.3	15.7	0.0	22.6	428.8	586.8	-158.0	0%	0%	0%	0%	12%
14	Dragons	8.0	16.0	0.0	22.0	518.1	596.9	-78.8	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%
15	Rabbitohs	7.9	16.1	0.0	21.7	399.9	560.5	-160.6	0%	0%	0%	0%	22%
16	Knights	7.7	16.3	0.0	21.3	353.5	481.8	-128.3	0%	0%	0%	0%	10%
17	Titans	7.0	17.0	0.0	20.0	465.7	630.8	-165.1	0%	0%	0%	0%	43%

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Dragons	Away	71%	Easy
23	Sea Eagles	Home	71%	Easy
25	Panthers	Away	36%	Very Hard
26	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
27	Dolphins	Away	40%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Eels	Away	82%	Easy
23	Broncos	Home	79%	Easy
24	Panthers	Away	51%	Hard
25	Bulldogs	Home	73%	Easy
26	Roosters	Home	78%	Easy
27	Broncos	Away	66%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Wests Tigers	Away	76%	Easy
23	Warriors	Home	67%	Moderate
24	Roosters	Away	48%	Hard
25	Storm	Away	26%	Very Hard
26	Panthers	Home	50%	Hard
27	Sharks	Home	61%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Dolphins	Home	44%	Hard
23	Bulldogs	Away	32%	Very Hard
24	Dragons	Home	74%	Easy
25	Titans	Away	67%	Moderate
26	Eels	Home	75%	Easy
27	Sea Eagles	Away	44%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Cowboys	Home	76%	Easy
23	Dragons	Away	67%	Moderate
24	Titans	Home	83%	Easy
26	Knights	Home	79%	Easy
27	Bulldogs	Away	38%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Titans	Away	80%	Easy
23	Knights	Away	75%	Easy
24	Storm	Home	48%	Hard
25	Raiders	Home	63%	Moderate
26	Bulldogs	Away	49%	Hard
27	Dragons	Away	75%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Rabbitohs	Home	80%	Easy
23	Storm	Away	20%	Very Hard
24	Dolphins	Home	46%	Hard
25	Knights	Away	61%	Moderate
26	Cowboys	Away	58%	Hard
27	Storm	Home	33%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Warriors	Away	55%	Hard
23	Roosters	Home	67%	Moderate
24	Broncos	Away	53%	Hard
25	Sea Eagles	Away	58%	Hard
26	Titans	Home	85%	Easy
27	Raiders	Home	59%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Roosters	Home	51%	Hard
23	Raiders	Away	28%	Very Hard
24	Wests Tigers	Away	65%	Moderate
25	Dolphins	Home	41%	Hard
26	Dragons	Away	57%	Hard
27	Warriors	Home	55%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Sea Eagles	Away	48%	Hard
23	Dolphins	Away	32%	Very Hard
24	Bulldogs	Home	51%	Hard
25	Eels	Away	65%	Moderate
26	Storm	Away	21%	Very Hard
27	Rabbitohs	Home	81%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Sharks	Away	23%	Very Hard
23	Eels	Away	47%	Hard
24	Knights	Home	61%	Moderate
25	Wests Tigers	Away	54%	Hard
26	Broncos	Home	41%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Bulldogs	Home	23%	Very Hard
24	Sea Eagles	Home	34%	Very Hard
25	Cowboys	Home	45%	Hard
26	Raiders	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Titans	Away	40%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Storm	Home	17%	Very Hard
23	Cowboys	Home	52%	Hard
24	Rabbitohs	Away	46%	Hard
25	Roosters	Home	34%	Very Hard
26	Warriors	Away	24%	Very Hard
27	Knights	Home	56%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Raiders	Home	28%	Very Hard
23	Sharks	Home	32%	Very Hard
24	Warriors	Away	25%	Very Hard
25	Rabbitohs	Away	47%	Hard
26	Sea Eagles	Home	42%	Hard
27	Panthers	Home	24%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Broncos	Away	19%	Very Hard
23	Titans	Away	43%	Hard
24	Eels	Home	53%	Hard
25	Dragons	Home	52%	Hard
27	Roosters	Away	18%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
23	Panthers	Home	24%	Very Hard
24	Cowboys	Away	38%	Very Hard
25	Broncos	Home	38%	Very Hard
26	Sharks	Away	20%	Very Hard
27	Eels	Away	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Panthers	Home	19%	Very Hard
23	Rabbitohs	Home	56%	Hard
24	Sharks	Away	16%	Very Hard
25	Warriors	Home	32%	Very Hard
26	Dolphins	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Wests Tigers	Home	59%	Hard

Round 22 Predictions (48 total matches across 6 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Eels	1384	Storm	1716	17%
Warriors	1525	Dolphins	1620	44%
Broncos	1537	Rabbitohs	1353	80%
Titans	1343	Panthers	1649	19%
Dragons	1392	Raiders	1608	28%
Sea Eagles	1504	Roosters	1551	51%
Wests Tigers	1335	Bulldogs	1594	23%
Sharks	1573	Cowboys	1423	76%

Round 1 of 6 (8 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Raiders 5 games remaining Expected: 3.0 wins 61% win rate

Storm 6 games remaining Expected: 4.3 wins 72% win rate

Bulldogs 6 games remaining Expected: 3.3 wins 55% win rate

Warriors 6 games remaining Expected: 3.4 wins 57% win rate

Sharks 5 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 69% win rate

Panthers 6 games remaining Expected: 3.9 wins 66% win rate

Broncos 6 games remaining Expected: 3.0 wins 50% win rate

Dolphins 6 games remaining Expected: 3.8 wins 63% win rate

Sea Eagles 6 games remaining Expected: 3.0 wins 50% win rate

Roosters 6 games remaining Expected: 3.0 wins 50% win rate

Cowboys 5 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 46% win rate

Wests Tigers 5 games remaining Expected: 1.6 wins 32% win rate

Eels 6 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 39% win rate

Dragons 6 games remaining Expected: 2.0 wins 33% win rate

Rabbitohs 5 games remaining Expected: 1.9 wins 38% win rate

Knights 5 games remaining Expected: 1.6 wins 33% win rate

Titans 6 games remaining Expected: 2.0 wins 33% win rate

Round 22 Predictions (48 total matches across 6 rounds)