Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Jul 27, 2025 11:05
Current Round:: Round 21
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	D	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Raiders	18.7	5.3	0.0	45.5	635.1	491.7	143.4	94%	100%	100%	69%	0%	0%
2	Storm	17.3	6.7	0.0	42.7	720.3	477.7	242.6	75%	98%	100%	23%	0%	0%
3	Bulldogs	16.6	7.4	0.0	41.2	536.7	437.2	99.4	26%	88%	99%	6%	0%	0%
4	Warriors	15.4	8.6	0.0	38.9	515.6	481.2	34.4	2%	52%	97%	0%	0%	0%
5	Panthers	14.0	9.0	1.0	37.1	558.0	462.7	95.3	1%	27%	97%	0%	0%	0%
6	Sharks	14.5	9.5	0.0	37.0	533.8	495.6	38.1	0%	21%	94%	0%	0%	0%
7	Broncos	13.0	11.0	0.0	34.1	598.4	520.0	78.4	0%	4%	74%	0%	0%	0%
8	Dolphins	12.8	11.2	0.0	33.5	683.9	503.9	179.9	0%	3%	71%	0%	0%	0%
9	Sea Eagles	12.7	11.3	0.0	33.3	553.8	491.5	62.3	0%	3%	56%	0%	0%	0%
10	Roosters	11.0	13.0	0.0	30.1	575.5	570.7	4.7	0%	0%	8%	0%	0%	0%
11	Cowboys	9.2	13.8	1.0	27.4	490.6	652.0	-161.4	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
12	Wests Tigers	8.6	15.4	0.0	25.3	436.5	584.7	-148.3	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
13	Eels	8.3	15.7	0.0	24.6	428.7	585.9	-157.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	13%
14	Dragons	8.0	16.0	0.0	24.0	518.9	598.1	-79.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	6%
15	Knights	7.9	16.1	0.0	23.8	348.5	455.7	-107.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	10%
16	Rabbitohs	7.8	16.2	0.0	23.7	398.7	560.0	-161.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	22%
17	Titans	7.0	17.0	0.0	22.0	466.4	630.5	-164.1	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	42%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Raiders (1st) vs Warriors (4th)

Home: Raiders

Raiders: 0% to win championship
Warriors: 0% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Storm (2nd) vs Bulldogs (3rd)

Home: Storm

Storm: 0% to win championship
Bulldogs: 0% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Panthers (5th) vs Dolphins (8th)

Home: Panthers

Panthers: 0% to win championship
Dolphins: 0% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Sharks (6th) vs Broncos (7th)

Home: Sharks

Sharks: 0% to win championship
Broncos: 0% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Warriors vs Panthers

Home: Warriors

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Bulldogs vs Sharks

Home: Bulldogs

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Raiders vs Bulldogs

Home: Raiders

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Storm vs Panthers

Home: Storm

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Raiders vs Storm

0% to win 0% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

No position distribution data available for this simulation.

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Knights	Home	80%	Easy
22	Dragons	Away	69%	Moderate
23	Sea Eagles	Home	65%	Moderate
25	Panthers	Away	34%	Very Hard
26	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
27	Dolphins	Away	38%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Eels	Away	82%	Easy
23	Broncos	Home	79%	Easy
24	Panthers	Away	51%	Hard
25	Bulldogs	Home	77%	Easy
26	Roosters	Home	78%	Easy
27	Broncos	Away	66%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Sea Eagles	Home	61%	Moderate
22	Wests Tigers	Away	72%	Easy
23	Warriors	Home	62%	Moderate
24	Roosters	Away	43%	Hard
25	Storm	Away	22%	Very Hard
26	Panthers	Home	45%	Hard
27	Sharks	Home	56%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Dolphins	Home	44%	Hard
23	Bulldogs	Away	37%	Very Hard
24	Dragons	Home	74%	Easy
25	Titans	Away	67%	Moderate
26	Eels	Home	75%	Easy
27	Sea Eagles	Away	40%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Titans	Away	80%	Easy
23	Knights	Away	74%	Easy
24	Storm	Home	48%	Hard
25	Raiders	Home	65%	Moderate
26	Bulldogs	Away	54%	Hard
27	Dragons	Away	75%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Cowboys	Home	76%	Easy
23	Dragons	Away	67%	Moderate
24	Titans	Home	83%	Easy
26	Knights	Home	78%	Easy
27	Bulldogs	Away	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Rabbitohs	Home	80%	Easy
23	Storm	Away	20%	Very Hard
24	Dolphins	Home	46%	Hard
25	Knights	Away	60%	Moderate
26	Cowboys	Away	58%	Hard
27	Storm	Home	33%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Warriors	Away	55%	Hard
23	Roosters	Home	67%	Moderate
24	Broncos	Away	53%	Hard
25	Sea Eagles	Away	53%	Hard
26	Titans	Home	85%	Easy
27	Raiders	Home	61%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Bulldogs	Away	38%	Very Hard
22	Roosters	Home	56%	Hard
23	Raiders	Away	34%	Very Hard
24	Wests Tigers	Away	69%	Moderate
25	Dolphins	Home	46%	Hard
26	Dragons	Away	62%	Moderate
27	Warriors	Home	59%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Sea Eagles	Away	43%	Hard
23	Dolphins	Away	32%	Very Hard
24	Bulldogs	Home	56%	Hard
25	Eels	Away	65%	Moderate
26	Storm	Away	21%	Very Hard
27	Rabbitohs	Home	81%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Sharks	Away	23%	Very Hard
23	Eels	Away	47%	Hard
24	Knights	Home	60%	Moderate
25	Wests Tigers	Away	54%	Hard
26	Broncos	Home	41%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Bulldogs	Home	27%	Very Hard
24	Sea Eagles	Home	30%	Very Hard
25	Cowboys	Home	45%	Hard
26	Raiders	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Titans	Away	40%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Storm	Home	17%	Very Hard
23	Cowboys	Home	52%	Hard
24	Rabbitohs	Away	46%	Hard
25	Roosters	Home	34%	Very Hard
26	Warriors	Away	24%	Very Hard
27	Knights	Home	54%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Raiders	Home	30%	Very Hard
23	Sharks	Home	32%	Very Hard
24	Warriors	Away	25%	Very Hard
25	Rabbitohs	Away	47%	Hard
26	Sea Eagles	Home	37%	Very Hard
27	Panthers	Home	24%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Raiders	Away	19%	Very Hard
23	Panthers	Home	25%	Very Hard
24	Cowboys	Away	39%	Very Hard
25	Broncos	Home	39%	Very Hard
26	Sharks	Away	21%	Very Hard
27	Eels	Away	45%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Broncos	Away	19%	Very Hard
23	Titans	Away	43%	Hard
24	Eels	Home	53%	Hard
25	Dragons	Home	52%	Hard
27	Roosters	Away	18%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Panthers	Home	19%	Very Hard
23	Rabbitohs	Home	56%	Hard
24	Sharks	Away	16%	Very Hard
25	Warriors	Home	32%	Very Hard
26	Dolphins	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Wests Tigers	Home	59%	Hard

Round 22 Predictions (50 total matches across 7 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Eels	1384	Storm	1716	17%
Warriors	1525	Dolphins	1620	44%
Broncos	1537	Rabbitohs	1353	80%
Titans	1343	Panthers	1649	19%
Dragons	1392	Raiders	1596	30%
Sea Eagles	1538	Roosters	1551	56%
Wests Tigers	1335	Bulldogs	1560	27%
Sharks	1573	Cowboys	1423	76%

Round 2 of 7 (8 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Finals Bracket Preview

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Week 2 - Semi Finals

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

Week 4 - Grand Final

Most Likely Grand Final

All Championship Contenders

Ladder Position Distribution

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Raiders 6 games remaining Expected: 3.7 wins 62% win rate

Storm 6 games remaining Expected: 4.4 wins 73% win rate

Bulldogs 7 games remaining Expected: 3.6 wins 52% win rate

Warriors 6 games remaining Expected: 3.4 wins 57% win rate

Panthers 6 games remaining Expected: 4.0 wins 67% win rate

Sharks 5 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 70% win rate

Broncos 6 games remaining Expected: 3.0 wins 50% win rate

Dolphins 6 games remaining Expected: 3.8 wins 63% win rate

Sea Eagles 7 games remaining Expected: 3.7 wins 53% win rate

Roosters 6 games remaining Expected: 3.0 wins 50% win rate

Cowboys 5 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 45% win rate

Wests Tigers 5 games remaining Expected: 1.6 wins 32% win rate

Eels 6 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 38% win rate

Dragons 6 games remaining Expected: 2.0 wins 33% win rate

Knights 6 games remaining Expected: 1.9 wins 32% win rate

Rabbitohs 5 games remaining Expected: 1.9 wins 38% win rate

Titans 6 games remaining Expected: 2.0 wins 33% win rate

Round 22 Predictions (50 total matches across 7 rounds)