Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Jul 27, 2025 11:05
Current Round:: Round 21
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes and final ladder positions:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The percentages show how often each team achieved that position across all simulations. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	D	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🥄 %
1	Raiders	18.7	5.3	0.0	45.5	635.1	491.7	143.4	94%	100%	100%	69%	0%
2	Storm	17.3	6.7	0.0	42.7	720.3	477.7	242.6	75%	98%	100%	23%	0%
3	Bulldogs	16.6	7.4	0.0	41.2	536.7	437.2	99.4	26%	88%	99%	6%	0%
4	Warriors	15.4	8.6	0.0	38.9	515.6	481.2	34.4	2%	52%	97%	0%	0%
5	Panthers	14.0	9.0	1.0	37.1	558.0	462.7	95.3	1%	27%	97%	0%	0%
6	Sharks	14.5	9.5	0.0	37.0	533.8	495.6	38.1	0%	21%	94%	0%	0%
7	Broncos	13.0	11.0	0.0	34.1	598.4	520.0	78.4	0%	4%	74%	0%	0%
8	Dolphins	12.8	11.2	0.0	33.5	683.9	503.9	179.9	0%	3%	71%	0%	0%
9	Sea Eagles	12.7	11.3	0.0	33.3	553.8	491.5	62.3	0%	3%	56%	0%	0%
10	Roosters	11.0	13.0	0.0	30.1	575.5	570.7	4.7	0%	0%	8%	0%	0%
11	Cowboys	9.2	13.8	1.0	27.4	490.6	652.0	-161.4	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
12	Wests Tigers	8.6	15.4	0.0	25.3	436.5	584.7	-148.3	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
13	Eels	8.3	15.7	0.0	24.6	428.7	585.9	-157.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	13%
14	Dragons	8.0	16.0	0.0	24.0	518.9	598.1	-79.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	6%
15	Knights	7.9	16.1	0.0	23.8	348.5	455.7	-107.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	10%
16	Rabbitohs	7.8	16.2	0.0	23.7	398.7	560.0	-161.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	22%
17	Titans	7.0	17.0	0.0	22.0	466.4	630.5	-164.1	0%	0%	0%	0%	42%

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Knights	Home	80%	Easy
22	Dragons	Away	69%	Moderate
23	Sea Eagles	Home	65%	Moderate
25	Panthers	Away	34%	Very Hard
26	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
27	Dolphins	Away	38%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Eels	Away	82%	Easy
23	Broncos	Home	79%	Easy
24	Panthers	Away	51%	Hard
25	Bulldogs	Home	77%	Easy
26	Roosters	Home	78%	Easy
27	Broncos	Away	66%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Sea Eagles	Home	61%	Moderate
22	Wests Tigers	Away	72%	Easy
23	Warriors	Home	62%	Moderate
24	Roosters	Away	43%	Hard
25	Storm	Away	22%	Very Hard
26	Panthers	Home	45%	Hard
27	Sharks	Home	56%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Dolphins	Home	44%	Hard
23	Bulldogs	Away	37%	Very Hard
24	Dragons	Home	74%	Easy
25	Titans	Away	67%	Moderate
26	Eels	Home	75%	Easy
27	Sea Eagles	Away	40%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Titans	Away	80%	Easy
23	Knights	Away	74%	Easy
24	Storm	Home	48%	Hard
25	Raiders	Home	65%	Moderate
26	Bulldogs	Away	54%	Hard
27	Dragons	Away	75%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Cowboys	Home	76%	Easy
23	Dragons	Away	67%	Moderate
24	Titans	Home	83%	Easy
26	Knights	Home	78%	Easy
27	Bulldogs	Away	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Rabbitohs	Home	80%	Easy
23	Storm	Away	20%	Very Hard
24	Dolphins	Home	46%	Hard
25	Knights	Away	60%	Moderate
26	Cowboys	Away	58%	Hard
27	Storm	Home	33%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Warriors	Away	55%	Hard
23	Roosters	Home	67%	Moderate
24	Broncos	Away	53%	Hard
25	Sea Eagles	Away	53%	Hard
26	Titans	Home	85%	Easy
27	Raiders	Home	61%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Bulldogs	Away	38%	Very Hard
22	Roosters	Home	56%	Hard
23	Raiders	Away	34%	Very Hard
24	Wests Tigers	Away	69%	Moderate
25	Dolphins	Home	46%	Hard
26	Dragons	Away	62%	Moderate
27	Warriors	Home	59%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Sea Eagles	Away	43%	Hard
23	Dolphins	Away	32%	Very Hard
24	Bulldogs	Home	56%	Hard
25	Eels	Away	65%	Moderate
26	Storm	Away	21%	Very Hard
27	Rabbitohs	Home	81%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Sharks	Away	23%	Very Hard
23	Eels	Away	47%	Hard
24	Knights	Home	60%	Moderate
25	Wests Tigers	Away	54%	Hard
26	Broncos	Home	41%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Bulldogs	Home	27%	Very Hard
24	Sea Eagles	Home	30%	Very Hard
25	Cowboys	Home	45%	Hard
26	Raiders	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Titans	Away	40%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Storm	Home	17%	Very Hard
23	Cowboys	Home	52%	Hard
24	Rabbitohs	Away	46%	Hard
25	Roosters	Home	34%	Very Hard
26	Warriors	Away	24%	Very Hard
27	Knights	Home	54%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Raiders	Home	30%	Very Hard
23	Sharks	Home	32%	Very Hard
24	Warriors	Away	25%	Very Hard
25	Rabbitohs	Away	47%	Hard
26	Sea Eagles	Home	37%	Very Hard
27	Panthers	Home	24%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Raiders	Away	19%	Very Hard
23	Panthers	Home	25%	Very Hard
24	Cowboys	Away	39%	Very Hard
25	Broncos	Home	39%	Very Hard
26	Sharks	Away	21%	Very Hard
27	Eels	Away	45%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Broncos	Away	19%	Very Hard
23	Titans	Away	43%	Hard
24	Eels	Home	53%	Hard
25	Dragons	Home	52%	Hard
27	Roosters	Away	18%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Panthers	Home	19%	Very Hard
23	Rabbitohs	Home	56%	Hard
24	Sharks	Away	16%	Very Hard
25	Warriors	Home	32%	Very Hard
26	Dolphins	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Wests Tigers	Home	59%	Hard

Round 21 Predictions (50 total matches across 7 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Raiders	1596	Knights	1407	80%
Bulldogs	1560	Sea Eagles	1538	61%

Round 1 of 7 (2 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Raiders 6 games remaining Expected: 3.7 wins 62% win rate

Storm 6 games remaining Expected: 4.4 wins 73% win rate

Bulldogs 7 games remaining Expected: 3.6 wins 52% win rate

Warriors 6 games remaining Expected: 3.4 wins 57% win rate

Panthers 6 games remaining Expected: 4.0 wins 67% win rate

Sharks 5 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 70% win rate

Broncos 6 games remaining Expected: 3.0 wins 50% win rate

Dolphins 6 games remaining Expected: 3.8 wins 63% win rate

Sea Eagles 7 games remaining Expected: 3.7 wins 53% win rate

Roosters 6 games remaining Expected: 3.0 wins 50% win rate

Cowboys 5 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 45% win rate

Wests Tigers 5 games remaining Expected: 1.6 wins 32% win rate

Eels 6 games remaining Expected: 2.3 wins 38% win rate

Dragons 6 games remaining Expected: 2.0 wins 33% win rate

Knights 6 games remaining Expected: 1.9 wins 32% win rate

Rabbitohs 5 games remaining Expected: 1.9 wins 38% win rate

Titans 6 games remaining Expected: 2.0 wins 33% win rate

Round 21 Predictions (50 total matches across 7 rounds)