Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Jul 22, 2025 00:01
Current Round:: Round 3
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	9.0	2.0	17.9	254.8	182.9	71.9	82%	96%	99%	62%	0%	0%
2	Broncos	7.5	3.5	14.9	291.5	209.6	81.9	55%	84%	95%	21%	0%	0%
3	Knights	7.1	3.9	14.3	245.4	206.7	38.7	30%	71%	89%	9%	0%	0%
4	Bulldogs	6.1	4.9	12.1	192.1	177.3	14.8	8%	34%	66%	2%	0%	0%
5	Eels	5.8	5.2	11.7	221.6	202.5	19.1	7%	33%	60%	1%	0%	0%
6	Dragons	5.7	5.3	11.5	217.1	208.4	8.7	5%	25%	55%	0%	0%	0%
7	Sharks	5.3	5.7	10.6	272.1	221.0	51.1	7%	28%	54%	1%	0%	0%
8	Cowboys	5.3	5.7	10.5	155.6	169.8	-14.2	1%	13%	36%	0%	0%	0%
9	Warriors	5.1	5.9	10.3	157.3	182.0	-24.7	0%	9%	29%	0%	0%	1%
10	Titans	4.3	6.7	8.5	138.0	191.2	-53.3	0%	2%	10%	0%	0%	4%
11	Wests Tigers	2.7	8.3	5.4	114.3	174.0	-59.7	0%	0%	2%	0%	0%	25%
12	Raiders	2.1	8.9	4.2	105.2	239.4	-134.3	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	67%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Roosters (1st) vs Bulldogs (4th)

Home: Roosters

Roosters: 0% to win championship
Bulldogs: 0% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Broncos (2nd) vs Knights (3rd)

Home: Broncos

Broncos: 0% to win championship
Knights: 0% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Eels (5th) vs Cowboys (8th)

Home: Eels

Eels: 0% to win championship
Cowboys: 0% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Dragons (6th) vs Sharks (7th)

Home: Dragons

Dragons: 0% to win championship
Sharks: 0% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Bulldogs vs Eels

Home: Bulldogs

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Knights vs Sharks

Home: Knights

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Roosters vs Knights

Home: Roosters

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Broncos vs Bulldogs

Home: Broncos

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Roosters vs Broncos

0% to win 0% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

No position distribution data available for this simulation.

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Bulldogs	Home	76%	Easy
5	Wests Tigers	Away	79%	Easy
6	Titans	Away	73%	Easy
7	Knights	Home	66%	Moderate
8	Eels	Away	69%	Moderate
9	Cowboys	Away	73%	Easy
10	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
11	Sharks	Home	70%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Dragons	Away	61%	Moderate
5	Sharks	Home	64%	Moderate
6	Raiders	Away	77%	Easy
7	Eels	Home	76%	Easy
8	Knights	Away	43%	Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	71%	Easy
10	Warriors	Away	60%	Moderate
11	Cowboys	Home	80%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Eels	Away	61%	Moderate
5	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
6	Wests Tigers	Home	83%	Easy
7	Roosters	Away	33%	Very Hard
8	Broncos	Home	56%	Hard
9	Sharks	Away	47%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	79%	Easy
11	Dragons	Home	74%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Roosters	Away	23%	Very Hard
5	Titans	Away	53%	Hard
6	Warriors	Home	62%	Moderate
7	Cowboys	Away	54%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	79%	Easy
9	Broncos	Away	28%	Very Hard
10	Sharks	Home	50%	Hard
11	Eels	Away	48%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Knights	Home	38%	Very Hard
5	Dragons	Home	56%	Hard
6	Cowboys	Home	63%	Moderate
7	Broncos	Away	23%	Very Hard
8	Roosters	Home	30%	Very Hard
9	Titans	Away	46%	Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Home	69%	Moderate
11	Bulldogs	Home	51%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Broncos	Home	38%	Very Hard
5	Eels	Away	43%	Hard
6	Sharks	Home	45%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	55%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	48%	Hard
9	Warriors	Home	57%	Hard
10	Cowboys	Home	64%	Moderate
11	Knights	Away	25%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Wests Tigers	Home	80%	Easy
5	Broncos	Away	35%	Very Hard
6	Dragons	Away	54%	Hard
7	Titans	Home	75%	Easy
8	Warriors	Away	54%	Hard
9	Knights	Home	52%	Hard
10	Bulldogs	Away	49%	Hard
11	Roosters	Away	29%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Raiders	Home	69%	Moderate
5	Warriors	Home	50%	Hard
6	Eels	Away	36%	Very Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	45%	Hard
8	Wests Tigers	Away	48%	Hard
9	Roosters	Home	26%	Very Hard
10	Dragons	Away	35%	Very Hard
11	Broncos	Away	19%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Titans	Home	65%	Moderate
5	Cowboys	Away	49%	Hard
6	Bulldogs	Away	37%	Very Hard
7	Raiders	Home	75%	Easy
8	Sharks	Home	45%	Hard
9	Dragons	Away	42%	Hard
10	Broncos	Home	39%	Very Hard
11	Wests Tigers	Away	56%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Warriors	Away	34%	Very Hard
5	Bulldogs	Home	46%	Hard
6	Roosters	Home	26%	Very Hard
7	Sharks	Away	24%	Very Hard
8	Dragons	Home	51%	Hard
9	Eels	Home	53%	Hard
10	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard
11	Raiders	Home	70%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Sharks	Away	19%	Very Hard
5	Roosters	Home	20%	Very Hard
6	Knights	Away	16%	Very Hard
7	Dragons	Home	44%	Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	51%	Hard
9	Raiders	Away	47%	Hard
10	Eels	Away	30%	Very Hard
11	Warriors	Home	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Cowboys	Away	30%	Very Hard
5	Knights	Away	15%	Very Hard
6	Broncos	Home	22%	Very Hard
7	Warriors	Away	24%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	20%	Very Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Home	52%	Hard
10	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
11	Titans	Away	29%	Very Hard

Round 10 Predictions (48 total matches across 8 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Roosters	1668	Raiders	1342	85%
Dragons	1478	Cowboys	1430	64%
Bulldogs	1517	Sharks	1570	50%
Warriors	1485	Broncos	1619	39%
Knights	1609	Titans	1434	79%
Eels	1468	Wests Tigers	1381	69%

Round 7 of 8 (6 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Finals Bracket Preview

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Week 2 - Semi Finals

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

Week 4 - Grand Final

Most Likely Grand Final

All Championship Contenders

Ladder Position Distribution

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 8 games remaining Expected: 5.9 wins 74% win rate

Broncos 8 games remaining Expected: 5.4 wins 67% win rate

Knights 8 games remaining Expected: 5.2 wins 65% win rate

Bulldogs 8 games remaining Expected: 4.0 wins 50% win rate

Eels 8 games remaining Expected: 3.8 wins 47% win rate

Dragons 8 games remaining Expected: 3.8 wins 47% win rate

Sharks 8 games remaining Expected: 4.3 wins 54% win rate

Cowboys 8 games remaining Expected: 3.3 wins 42% win rate

Warriors 8 games remaining Expected: 4.1 wins 52% win rate

Titans 8 games remaining Expected: 3.3 wins 41% win rate

Wests Tigers 8 games remaining Expected: 2.7 wins 34% win rate

Raiders 8 games remaining Expected: 2.1 wins 26% win rate

Round 10 Predictions (48 total matches across 8 rounds)