Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Jul 22, 2025 00:01
Current Round:: Round 3
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes and final ladder positions:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The percentages show how often each team achieved that position across all simulations. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	9.0	2.0	17.9	254.8	182.9	71.9	82%	96%	99%	62%	0%
2	Broncos	7.5	3.5	14.9	291.5	209.6	81.9	55%	84%	95%	21%	0%
3	Knights	7.1	3.9	14.3	245.4	206.7	38.7	30%	71%	89%	9%	0%
4	Bulldogs	6.1	4.9	12.1	192.1	177.3	14.8	8%	34%	66%	2%	0%
5	Eels	5.8	5.2	11.7	221.6	202.5	19.1	7%	33%	60%	1%	0%
6	Dragons	5.7	5.3	11.5	217.1	208.4	8.7	5%	25%	55%	0%	0%
7	Sharks	5.3	5.7	10.6	272.1	221.0	51.1	7%	28%	54%	1%	0%
8	Cowboys	5.3	5.7	10.5	155.6	169.8	-14.2	1%	13%	36%	0%	0%
9	Warriors	5.1	5.9	10.3	157.3	182.0	-24.7	0%	9%	29%	0%	1%
10	Titans	4.3	6.7	8.5	138.0	191.2	-53.3	0%	2%	10%	0%	4%
11	Wests Tigers	2.7	8.3	5.4	114.3	174.0	-59.7	0%	0%	2%	0%	25%
12	Raiders	2.1	8.9	4.2	105.2	239.4	-134.3	0%	0%	0%	0%	67%

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Bulldogs	Home	76%	Easy
5	Wests Tigers	Away	79%	Easy
6	Titans	Away	73%	Easy
7	Knights	Home	66%	Moderate
8	Eels	Away	69%	Moderate
9	Cowboys	Away	73%	Easy
10	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
11	Sharks	Home	70%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Dragons	Away	61%	Moderate
5	Sharks	Home	64%	Moderate
6	Raiders	Away	77%	Easy
7	Eels	Home	76%	Easy
8	Knights	Away	43%	Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	71%	Easy
10	Warriors	Away	60%	Moderate
11	Cowboys	Home	80%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Eels	Away	61%	Moderate
5	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
6	Wests Tigers	Home	83%	Easy
7	Roosters	Away	33%	Very Hard
8	Broncos	Home	56%	Hard
9	Sharks	Away	47%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	79%	Easy
11	Dragons	Home	74%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Roosters	Away	23%	Very Hard
5	Titans	Away	53%	Hard
6	Warriors	Home	62%	Moderate
7	Cowboys	Away	54%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	79%	Easy
9	Broncos	Away	28%	Very Hard
10	Sharks	Home	50%	Hard
11	Eels	Away	48%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Knights	Home	38%	Very Hard
5	Dragons	Home	56%	Hard
6	Cowboys	Home	63%	Moderate
7	Broncos	Away	23%	Very Hard
8	Roosters	Home	30%	Very Hard
9	Titans	Away	46%	Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Home	69%	Moderate
11	Bulldogs	Home	51%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Broncos	Home	38%	Very Hard
5	Eels	Away	43%	Hard
6	Sharks	Home	45%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	55%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	48%	Hard
9	Warriors	Home	57%	Hard
10	Cowboys	Home	64%	Moderate
11	Knights	Away	25%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Wests Tigers	Home	80%	Easy
5	Broncos	Away	35%	Very Hard
6	Dragons	Away	54%	Hard
7	Titans	Home	75%	Easy
8	Warriors	Away	54%	Hard
9	Knights	Home	52%	Hard
10	Bulldogs	Away	49%	Hard
11	Roosters	Away	29%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Raiders	Home	69%	Moderate
5	Warriors	Home	50%	Hard
6	Eels	Away	36%	Very Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	45%	Hard
8	Wests Tigers	Away	48%	Hard
9	Roosters	Home	26%	Very Hard
10	Dragons	Away	35%	Very Hard
11	Broncos	Away	19%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Titans	Home	65%	Moderate
5	Cowboys	Away	49%	Hard
6	Bulldogs	Away	37%	Very Hard
7	Raiders	Home	75%	Easy
8	Sharks	Home	45%	Hard
9	Dragons	Away	42%	Hard
10	Broncos	Home	39%	Very Hard
11	Wests Tigers	Away	56%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Warriors	Away	34%	Very Hard
5	Bulldogs	Home	46%	Hard
6	Roosters	Home	26%	Very Hard
7	Sharks	Away	24%	Very Hard
8	Dragons	Home	51%	Hard
9	Eels	Home	53%	Hard
10	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard
11	Raiders	Home	70%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Sharks	Away	19%	Very Hard
5	Roosters	Home	20%	Very Hard
6	Knights	Away	16%	Very Hard
7	Dragons	Home	44%	Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	51%	Hard
9	Raiders	Away	47%	Hard
10	Eels	Away	30%	Very Hard
11	Warriors	Home	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Cowboys	Away	30%	Very Hard
5	Knights	Away	15%	Very Hard
6	Broncos	Home	22%	Very Hard
7	Warriors	Away	24%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	20%	Very Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Home	52%	Hard
10	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
11	Titans	Away	29%	Very Hard

Round 4 Predictions (48 total matches across 8 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Warriors	1485	Titans	1434	65%
Roosters	1668	Bulldogs	1517	76%
Cowboys	1430	Raiders	1342	69%
Eels	1468	Knights	1609	38%
Dragons	1478	Broncos	1619	38%
Sharks	1570	Wests Tigers	1381	80%

Round 1 of 8 (6 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 8 games remaining Expected: 5.9 wins 74% win rate

Broncos 8 games remaining Expected: 5.4 wins 67% win rate

Knights 8 games remaining Expected: 5.2 wins 65% win rate

Bulldogs 8 games remaining Expected: 4.0 wins 50% win rate

Eels 8 games remaining Expected: 3.8 wins 47% win rate

Dragons 8 games remaining Expected: 3.8 wins 47% win rate

Sharks 8 games remaining Expected: 4.3 wins 54% win rate

Cowboys 8 games remaining Expected: 3.3 wins 42% win rate

Warriors 8 games remaining Expected: 4.1 wins 52% win rate

Titans 8 games remaining Expected: 3.3 wins 41% win rate

Wests Tigers 8 games remaining Expected: 2.7 wins 34% win rate

Raiders 8 games remaining Expected: 2.1 wins 26% win rate

Round 4 Predictions (48 total matches across 8 rounds)