Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Jul 20, 2025 23:10
Current Round:: Round 3
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes and final ladder positions:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The percentages show how often each team achieved that position across all simulations. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	8.4	2.6	18.7	258.3	191.3	67.1	73%	91%	97%	41%	0%
2	Broncos	8.1	2.9	18.1	317.7	230.4	87.3	69%	90%	98%	43%	0%
3	Knights	6.9	4.1	15.7	213.1	186.5	26.6	21%	59%	84%	6%	0%
4	Bulldogs	6.0	5.0	14.0	192.8	179.2	13.6	8%	34%	62%	2%	0%
5	Eels	5.8	5.2	13.6	219.0	199.5	19.5	7%	33%	60%	2%	0%
6	Dragons	5.7	5.3	13.5	216.6	208.5	8.1	5%	27%	55%	1%	0%
7	Warriors	5.5	5.5	12.9	148.8	159.3	-10.5	4%	19%	41%	1%	1%
8	Cowboys	5.4	5.6	12.7	159.0	173.0	-14.0	2%	13%	35%	0%	0%
9	Sharks	5.3	5.7	12.5	272.4	222.2	50.2	6%	28%	55%	1%	0%
10	Titans	3.5	7.5	9.1	107.3	176.2	-68.9	0%	1%	4%	0%	12%
11	Wests Tigers	3.5	7.5	9.0	115.0	157.8	-42.9	0%	0%	5%	0%	11%
12	Raiders	2.0	9.0	6.0	106.6	242.7	-136.1	0%	0%	0%	0%	73%

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Broncos	Away	45%	Hard
4	Bulldogs	Home	75%	Easy
5	Wests Tigers	Away	75%	Easy
6	Titans	Away	74%	Easy
7	Knights	Home	66%	Moderate
8	Eels	Away	68%	Moderate
9	Cowboys	Away	72%	Easy
10	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
11	Sharks	Home	69%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Roosters	Home	54%	Hard
4	Dragons	Away	63%	Moderate
5	Sharks	Home	66%	Moderate
6	Raiders	Away	79%	Easy
7	Eels	Home	77%	Easy
8	Knights	Away	46%	Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	72%	Easy
10	Warriors	Away	60%	Moderate
11	Cowboys	Home	81%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Warriors	Home	71%	Easy
4	Eels	Away	60%	Moderate
5	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
6	Wests Tigers	Home	81%	Easy
7	Roosters	Away	33%	Very Hard
8	Broncos	Home	53%	Hard
9	Sharks	Away	45%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	79%	Easy
11	Dragons	Home	73%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Roosters	Away	24%	Very Hard
5	Titans	Away	56%	Hard
6	Warriors	Home	60%	Moderate
7	Cowboys	Away	54%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	79%	Easy
9	Broncos	Away	27%	Very Hard
10	Sharks	Home	50%	Hard
11	Eels	Away	48%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Knights	Home	39%	Very Hard
5	Dragons	Home	56%	Hard
6	Cowboys	Home	63%	Moderate
7	Broncos	Away	22%	Very Hard
8	Roosters	Home	31%	Very Hard
9	Titans	Away	49%	Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Home	67%	Moderate
11	Bulldogs	Home	51%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Broncos	Home	36%	Very Hard
5	Eels	Away	43%	Hard
6	Sharks	Home	45%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	52%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	51%	Hard
9	Warriors	Home	55%	Hard
10	Cowboys	Home	64%	Moderate
11	Knights	Away	26%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Knights	Away	28%	Very Hard
4	Titans	Home	69%	Moderate
5	Cowboys	Away	51%	Hard
6	Bulldogs	Away	39%	Very Hard
7	Raiders	Home	77%	Easy
8	Sharks	Home	47%	Hard
9	Dragons	Away	44%	Hard
10	Broncos	Home	39%	Very Hard
11	Wests Tigers	Away	55%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Raiders	Home	69%	Moderate
5	Warriors	Home	48%	Hard
6	Eels	Away	36%	Very Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	45%	Hard
8	Wests Tigers	Away	46%	Hard
9	Roosters	Home	27%	Very Hard
10	Dragons	Away	35%	Very Hard
11	Broncos	Away	18%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Wests Tigers	Home	78%	Easy
5	Broncos	Away	33%	Very Hard
6	Dragons	Away	54%	Hard
7	Titans	Home	77%	Easy
8	Warriors	Away	52%	Hard
9	Knights	Home	54%	Hard
10	Bulldogs	Away	49%	Hard
11	Roosters	Away	30%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Wests Tigers	Away	43%	Hard
4	Warriors	Away	30%	Very Hard
5	Bulldogs	Home	43%	Hard
6	Roosters	Home	25%	Very Hard
7	Sharks	Away	22%	Very Hard
8	Dragons	Home	48%	Hard
9	Eels	Home	50%	Hard
10	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard
11	Raiders	Home	67%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Titans	Home	56%	Hard
4	Sharks	Away	21%	Very Hard
5	Roosters	Home	24%	Very Hard
6	Knights	Away	18%	Very Hard
7	Dragons	Home	47%	Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	53%	Hard
9	Raiders	Away	50%	Hard
10	Eels	Away	32%	Very Hard
11	Warriors	Home	44%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
4	Cowboys	Away	30%	Very Hard
5	Knights	Away	15%	Very Hard
6	Broncos	Home	20%	Very Hard
7	Warriors	Away	22%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	20%	Very Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Home	49%	Hard
10	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
11	Titans	Away	32%	Very Hard

Round 3 Predictions (51 total matches across 9 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Wests Tigers	1401	Titans	1414	56%
Broncos	1630	Roosters	1657	54%
Knights	1596	Warriors	1497	71%

Round 1 of 9 (3 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 9 games remaining Expected: 6.3 wins 70% win rate

Broncos 9 games remaining Expected: 6.0 wins 67% win rate

Knights 9 games remaining Expected: 5.8 wins 65% win rate

Bulldogs 8 games remaining Expected: 4.0 wins 50% win rate

Eels 8 games remaining Expected: 3.8 wins 48% win rate

Dragons 8 games remaining Expected: 3.8 wins 47% win rate

Warriors 9 games remaining Expected: 4.5 wins 50% win rate

Cowboys 8 games remaining Expected: 3.3 wins 41% win rate

Sharks 8 games remaining Expected: 4.3 wins 54% win rate

Titans 9 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 39% win rate

Wests Tigers 9 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 39% win rate

Raiders 8 games remaining Expected: 2.1 wins 26% win rate

Round 3 Predictions (51 total matches across 9 rounds)