Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Jul 20, 2025 23:03
Current Round:: Round 20
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes and final ladder positions:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The percentages show how often each team achieved that position across all simulations. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	D	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🥄 %
1	Raiders	18.7	5.3	0.0	45.4	635.8	493.6	142.2	94%	99%	100%	72%	0%
2	Storm	16.9	7.1	0.0	41.8	713.1	473.5	239.7	60%	95%	100%	18%	0%
3	Bulldogs	16.7	7.3	0.0	41.3	539.3	438.7	100.5	31%	87%	99%	7%	0%
4	Warriors	15.9	8.1	0.0	39.8	517.3	471.9	45.4	11%	68%	97%	1%	0%
5	Panthers	13.8	9.2	1.0	36.5	535.6	471.7	63.9	0%	16%	92%	0%	0%
6	Sharks	14.2	9.8	0.0	36.4	536.9	497.6	39.3	0%	11%	90%	0%	0%
7	Broncos	13.9	10.1	0.0	35.7	597.9	512.6	85.2	0%	14%	88%	0%	0%
8	Dolphins	12.8	11.2	0.0	33.5	683.8	503.3	180.5	0%	4%	66%	0%	0%
9	Sea Eagles	12.7	11.3	0.0	33.3	553.4	491.0	62.4	0%	3%	50%	0%	0%
10	Roosters	11.5	12.5	0.0	30.9	571.8	564.5	7.3	0%	0%	13%	0%	0%
11	Cowboys	8.9	14.1	1.0	26.7	469.4	634.6	-165.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
12	Knights	8.5	15.5	0.0	24.9	352.5	453.2	-100.7	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
13	Dragons	8.4	15.6	0.0	24.8	501.9	576.1	-74.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
14	Wests Tigers	8.4	15.6	0.0	24.8	445.3	564.1	-118.8	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%
15	Rabbitohs	8.2	15.8	0.0	24.4	402.8	564.1	-161.3	0%	0%	0%	0%	10%
16	Eels	7.4	16.6	0.0	22.7	418.5	584.8	-166.3	0%	0%	0%	0%	23%
17	Titans	6.4	17.6	0.0	20.9	449.1	629.0	-179.9	0%	0%	0%	0%	56%

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Knights	Home	79%	Easy
22	Dragons	Away	68%	Moderate
23	Sea Eagles	Home	65%	Moderate
25	Panthers	Away	35%	Very Hard
26	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
27	Dolphins	Away	38%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Roosters	Away	63%	Moderate
22	Eels	Away	83%	Easy
23	Broncos	Home	77%	Easy
24	Panthers	Away	51%	Hard
25	Bulldogs	Home	76%	Easy
26	Roosters	Home	76%	Easy
27	Broncos	Away	64%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Sea Eagles	Home	61%	Moderate
22	Wests Tigers	Away	72%	Easy
23	Warriors	Home	60%	Moderate
24	Roosters	Away	42%	Hard
25	Storm	Away	23%	Very Hard
26	Panthers	Home	46%	Hard
27	Sharks	Home	57%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Knights	Away	59%	Hard
21	Titans	Home	82%	Easy
22	Dolphins	Home	46%	Hard
23	Bulldogs	Away	39%	Very Hard
24	Dragons	Home	75%	Easy
25	Titans	Away	71%	Easy
26	Eels	Home	78%	Easy
27	Sea Eagles	Away	42%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
22	Titans	Away	81%	Easy
23	Knights	Away	72%	Easy
24	Storm	Home	48%	Hard
25	Raiders	Home	64%	Moderate
26	Bulldogs	Away	53%	Hard
27	Dragons	Away	73%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Rabbitohs	Away	70%	Easy
22	Cowboys	Home	77%	Easy
23	Dragons	Away	65%	Moderate
24	Titans	Home	84%	Easy
26	Knights	Home	76%	Easy
27	Bulldogs	Away	42%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Eels	Home	79%	Easy
22	Rabbitohs	Home	80%	Easy
23	Storm	Away	22%	Very Hard
24	Dolphins	Home	48%	Hard
25	Knights	Away	60%	Moderate
26	Cowboys	Away	61%	Moderate
27	Storm	Home	35%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Warriors	Away	53%	Hard
23	Roosters	Home	66%	Moderate
24	Broncos	Away	51%	Hard
25	Sea Eagles	Away	53%	Hard
26	Titans	Home	85%	Easy
27	Raiders	Home	61%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Bulldogs	Away	38%	Very Hard
22	Roosters	Home	55%	Hard
23	Raiders	Away	34%	Very Hard
24	Wests Tigers	Away	69%	Moderate
25	Dolphins	Home	46%	Hard
26	Dragons	Away	61%	Moderate
27	Warriors	Home	57%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Storm	Home	36%	Very Hard
22	Sea Eagles	Away	44%	Hard
23	Dolphins	Away	33%	Very Hard
24	Bulldogs	Home	57%	Hard
25	Eels	Away	67%	Moderate
26	Storm	Away	23%	Very Hard
27	Rabbitohs	Home	81%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Dragons	Home	59%	Hard
22	Sharks	Away	22%	Very Hard
23	Eels	Away	47%	Hard
24	Knights	Home	57%	Hard
25	Wests Tigers	Away	52%	Hard
26	Broncos	Home	38%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Warriors	Home	40%	Hard
21	Raiders	Away	20%	Very Hard
23	Panthers	Home	27%	Very Hard
24	Cowboys	Away	42%	Hard
25	Broncos	Home	39%	Very Hard
26	Sharks	Away	23%	Very Hard
27	Eels	Away	48%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Cowboys	Away	40%	Hard
22	Raiders	Home	31%	Very Hard
23	Sharks	Home	34%	Very Hard
24	Warriors	Away	24%	Very Hard
25	Rabbitohs	Away	48%	Hard
26	Sea Eagles	Home	38%	Very Hard
27	Panthers	Home	26%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Titans	Home	60%	Moderate
21	Panthers	Away	15%	Very Hard
22	Bulldogs	Home	27%	Very Hard
24	Sea Eagles	Home	30%	Very Hard
25	Cowboys	Home	47%	Hard
26	Raiders	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Titans	Away	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Sharks	Home	29%	Very Hard
22	Broncos	Away	19%	Very Hard
23	Titans	Away	46%	Hard
24	Eels	Home	56%	Hard
25	Dragons	Home	51%	Hard
27	Roosters	Away	18%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Broncos	Away	20%	Very Hard
22	Storm	Home	16%	Very Hard
23	Cowboys	Home	52%	Hard
24	Rabbitohs	Away	43%	Hard
25	Roosters	Home	32%	Very Hard
26	Warriors	Away	21%	Very Hard
27	Knights	Home	51%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Wests Tigers	Away	39%	Very Hard
21	Warriors	Away	17%	Very Hard
22	Panthers	Home	18%	Very Hard
23	Rabbitohs	Home	53%	Hard
24	Sharks	Away	15%	Very Hard
25	Warriors	Home	28%	Very Hard
26	Dolphins	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Wests Tigers	Home	56%	Hard

Round 20 Predictions (58 total matches across 8 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Wests Tigers	1339	Titans	1325	60%
Knights	1416	Warriors	1540	40%

Round 1 of 8 (2 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Raiders 6 games remaining Expected: 3.7 wins 62% win rate

Storm 7 games remaining Expected: 4.9 wins 70% win rate

Bulldogs 7 games remaining Expected: 3.6 wins 52% win rate

Warriors 8 games remaining Expected: 5.0 wins 62% win rate

Panthers 7 games remaining Expected: 4.8 wins 68% win rate

Sharks 6 games remaining Expected: 4.2 wins 70% win rate

Broncos 7 games remaining Expected: 3.9 wins 55% win rate

Dolphins 6 games remaining Expected: 3.7 wins 62% win rate

Sea Eagles 7 games remaining Expected: 3.6 wins 52% win rate

Roosters 7 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 49% win rate

Cowboys 6 games remaining Expected: 2.8 wins 47% win rate

Knights 7 games remaining Expected: 2.4 wins 35% win rate

Dragons 7 games remaining Expected: 2.4 wins 35% win rate

Wests Tigers 7 games remaining Expected: 2.4 wins 34% win rate

Rabbitohs 6 games remaining Expected: 2.2 wins 37% win rate

Eels 7 games remaining Expected: 2.4 wins 34% win rate

Titans 8 games remaining Expected: 2.4 wins 31% win rate

Round 20 Predictions (58 total matches across 8 rounds)