Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2026
Run Date:: May 04, 2026 09:00
Current Round:: Round 0
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	7.5	3.5	14.9	225.9	196.3	29.6	30%	28%	0%
2	Knights	7.0	4.0	14.1	216.0	193.1	22.9	20%	24%	0%
3	Broncos	6.9	4.1	13.7	227.0	205.9	21.1	17%	18%	1%
4	Sharks	6.4	4.6	12.7	204.3	190.5	13.8	14%	11%	1%
5	Warriors	5.7	5.3	11.3	174.0	171.6	2.5	5%	5%	4%
6	Raiders	5.2	5.8	10.4	191.6	196.9	-5.4	3%	2%	7%
7	Titans	5.0	6.0	10.1	172.3	180.1	-7.8	1%	2%	8%
8	Bulldogs	4.8	6.2	9.7	179.4	189.5	-10.1	1%	2%	10%
9	Dragons	4.7	6.3	9.5	173.0	184.7	-11.7	1%	1%	10%
10	Eels	4.5	6.5	8.9	151.4	167.2	-15.7	1%	1%	15%
11	Wests Tigers	4.3	6.7	8.5	144.3	162.4	-18.0	0%	0%	18%
12	Cowboys	4.1	6.9	8.2	147.5	168.5	-21.0	0%	1%	21%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Roosters (1st) vs Sharks (4th)

Home: Roosters

Roosters: 28% to win championship
Sharks: 11% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Knights (2nd) vs Broncos (3rd)

Home: Knights

Knights: 24% to win championship
Broncos: 18% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Warriors (5th) vs Bulldogs (8th)

Home: Warriors

Warriors: 5% to win championship
Bulldogs: 2% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Raiders (6th) vs Titans (7th)

Home: Raiders

Raiders: 2% to win championship
Titans: 2% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Sharks vs Warriors

Home: Sharks

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Broncos vs Raiders

Home: Broncos

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Roosters vs Broncos

Home: Roosters

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Knights vs Sharks

Home: Knights

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Roosters vs Knights

28% to win 24% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

Roosters 28%

Knights 24%

Broncos 18%

Sharks 11%

Warriors 5%

Raiders 2%

Titans 2%

Bulldogs 2%

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th
Roosters	30%	19%	15%	8%	7%	5%	4%	2%	1%	1%	1%	0%
Knights	20%	19%	14%	12%	9%	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%	1%	0%
Broncos	17%	18%	15%	12%	7%	7%	6%	4%	3%	2%	2%	1%
Sharks	14%	11%	13%	11%	10%	10%	6%	6%	7%	4%	2%	1%
Warriors	5%	7%	9%	10%	12%	12%	9%	9%	7%	7%	5%	4%
Raiders	3%	5%	7%	8%	9%	10%	10%	9%	9%	9%	8%	7%
Titans	1%	3%	6%	7%	9%	9%	11%	11%	10%	9%	10%	8%
Bulldogs	1%	4%	5%	8%	8%	8%	9%	10%	10%	11%	11%	10%
Dragons	1%	3%	4%	6%	7%	8%	8%	10%	11%	13%	12%	10%
Eels	1%	2%	2%	5%	7%	6%	10%	11%	10%	10%	15%	15%
Wests Tigers	0%	1%	3%	4%	5%	8%	7%	9%	12%	14%	13%	18%
Cowboys	0%	1%	2%	5%	3%	6%	9%	8%	12%	13%	15%	21%

Reading the table: Each row shows the probability of that team finishing in each position. For example, if a team has 25% in the "1st" column, they finished first in 25% of the 1000 simulated seasons. Each row should sum to approximately 100%.

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Titans	Away	64%	Moderate
2	Knights	Home	62%	Moderate
3	Raiders	Away	64%	Moderate
4	Wests Tigers	Away	70%	Easy
5	Dragons	Away	67%	Moderate
6	Eels	Home	81%	Easy
7	Broncos	Away	48%	Hard
8	Warriors	Home	74%	Easy
9	Sharks	Home	69%	Moderate
10	Cowboys	Away	70%	Easy
11	Bulldogs	Home	79%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Sharks	Away	49%	Hard
2	Roosters	Away	37%	Very Hard
3	Dragons	Home	77%	Easy
4	Broncos	Away	44%	Hard
5	Eels	Away	65%	Moderate
6	Warriors	Away	56%	Hard
7	Raiders	Home	74%	Easy
8	Wests Tigers	Home	79%	Easy
9	Cowboys	Away	67%	Moderate
10	Bulldogs	Home	76%	Easy
11	Titans	Home	74%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Cowboys	Home	78%	Easy
2	Sharks	Away	47%	Hard
3	Wests Tigers	Home	77%	Easy
4	Knights	Home	55%	Hard
5	Bulldogs	Away	60%	Moderate
6	Raiders	Away	58%	Hard
7	Roosters	Home	51%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	58%	Hard
9	Eels	Away	63%	Moderate
10	Dragons	Away	61%	Moderate
11	Warriors	Home	69%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Knights	Home	50%	Hard
2	Broncos	Home	52%	Hard
3	Bulldogs	Away	55%	Hard
4	Raiders	Away	52%	Hard
5	Wests Tigers	Home	73%	Easy
6	Titans	Home	68%	Moderate
7	Cowboys	Away	59%	Hard
8	Eels	Home	72%	Easy
9	Roosters	Away	30%	Very Hard
10	Warriors	Away	48%	Hard
11	Dragons	Home	71%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Bulldogs	Home	64%	Moderate
2	Raiders	Away	46%	Hard
3	Cowboys	Home	68%	Moderate
4	Eels	Away	51%	Hard
5	Titans	Home	62%	Moderate
6	Knights	Home	43%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	52%	Hard
8	Roosters	Away	25%	Very Hard
9	Dragons	Home	65%	Moderate
10	Sharks	Home	51%	Hard
11	Broncos	Away	30%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Dragons	Away	45%	Hard
2	Warriors	Home	53%	Hard
3	Roosters	Home	35%	Very Hard
4	Sharks	Home	47%	Hard
5	Cowboys	Home	64%	Moderate
6	Broncos	Home	41%	Hard
7	Knights	Away	25%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	44%	Hard
9	Titans	Away	41%	Hard
10	Eels	Home	63%	Moderate
11	Wests Tigers	Away	48%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Roosters	Home	35%	Very Hard
2	Bulldogs	Away	44%	Hard
3	Eels	Home	63%	Moderate
4	Cowboys	Away	48%	Hard
5	Warriors	Away	37%	Very Hard
6	Sharks	Away	31%	Very Hard
7	Dragons	Home	61%	Moderate
8	Broncos	Home	41%	Hard
9	Raiders	Home	58%	Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Away	48%	Hard
11	Knights	Away	25%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Warriors	Away	35%	Very Hard
2	Titans	Home	55%	Hard
3	Sharks	Home	44%	Hard
4	Dragons	Home	58%	Hard
5	Broncos	Home	39%	Very Hard
6	Cowboys	Home	62%	Moderate
7	Eels	Away	44%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	55%	Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Away	45%	Hard
10	Knights	Away	23%	Very Hard
11	Roosters	Away	20%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Raiders	Home	54%	Hard
2	Eels	Home	60%	Moderate
3	Knights	Away	22%	Very Hard
4	Bulldogs	Away	41%	Hard
5	Roosters	Home	32%	Very Hard
6	Wests Tigers	Home	61%	Moderate
7	Titans	Away	38%	Very Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	61%	Moderate
9	Warriors	Away	34%	Very Hard
10	Broncos	Home	38%	Very Hard
11	Sharks	Away	28%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Wests Tigers	Home	59%	Hard
2	Dragons	Away	39%	Very Hard
3	Titans	Away	36%	Very Hard
4	Warriors	Home	48%	Hard
5	Knights	Home	34%	Very Hard
6	Roosters	Away	18%	Very Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	55%	Hard
8	Sharks	Away	27%	Very Hard
9	Broncos	Home	36%	Very Hard
10	Raiders	Away	36%	Very Hard
11	Cowboys	Home	59%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Eels	Away	40%	Hard
2	Cowboys	Away	42%	Hard
3	Broncos	Away	22%	Very Hard
4	Roosters	Home	29%	Very Hard
5	Sharks	Away	26%	Very Hard
6	Dragons	Away	38%	Very Hard
7	Warriors	Home	47%	Hard
8	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	54%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	51%	Hard
11	Raiders	Home	51%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
1	Broncos	Away	21%	Very Hard
2	Wests Tigers	Home	57%	Hard
3	Warriors	Away	31%	Very Hard
4	Titans	Home	51%	Hard
5	Raiders	Away	35%	Very Hard
6	Bulldogs	Away	37%	Very Hard
7	Sharks	Home	40%	Hard
8	Dragons	Away	38%	Very Hard
9	Knights	Home	32%	Very Hard
10	Roosters	Home	29%	Very Hard
11	Eels	Away	40%	Hard

Round 6 Predictions (66 total matches across 11 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Bulldogs	1450	Cowboys	1418	62%
Sharks	1545	Titans	1467	68%
Warriors	1498	Knights	1598	43%
Raiders	1467	Broncos	1582	41%
Dragons	1444	Wests Tigers	1423	61%
Roosters	1628	Eels	1429	81%

Round 6 of 11 (6 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Finals Bracket Preview

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Week 2 - Semi Finals

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

Week 4 - Grand Final

Most Likely Grand Final

All Championship Contenders

Ladder Position Distribution

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 11 games remaining Expected: 7.5 wins 68% win rate

Knights 11 games remaining Expected: 7.0 wins 64% win rate

Broncos 11 games remaining Expected: 6.8 wins 62% win rate

Sharks 11 games remaining Expected: 6.4 wins 58% win rate

Warriors 11 games remaining Expected: 5.6 wins 51% win rate

Raiders 11 games remaining Expected: 5.1 wins 46% win rate

Titans 11 games remaining Expected: 5.0 wins 45% win rate

Bulldogs 11 games remaining Expected: 4.9 wins 44% win rate

Dragons 11 games remaining Expected: 4.8 wins 43% win rate

Eels 11 games remaining Expected: 4.5 wins 41% win rate

Wests Tigers 11 games remaining Expected: 4.3 wins 39% win rate

Cowboys 11 games remaining Expected: 4.2 wins 38% win rate

Round 6 Predictions (66 total matches across 11 rounds)