Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Jul 19, 2025 21:27
Current Round:: Round 2
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes and final ladder positions:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The percentages show how often each team achieved that position across all simulations. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	8.3	2.7	16.6	254.1	189.0	65.1	66%	90%	98%	37%	0%
2	Broncos	8.0	3.0	16.1	314.9	227.6	87.3	65%	89%	97%	43%	0%
3	Knights	6.9	4.1	13.8	210.8	183.4	27.5	21%	60%	86%	6%	0%
4	Bulldogs	6.9	4.1	13.8	210.9	186.1	24.8	18%	58%	85%	5%	0%
5	Sharks	6.2	4.8	12.4	308.7	249.7	59.0	20%	51%	80%	6%	0%
6	Warriors	5.5	5.5	10.9	152.1	162.8	-10.7	3%	17%	45%	0%	1%
7	Dragons	4.9	6.1	9.9	220.3	221.8	-1.5	2%	12%	39%	0%	1%
8	Eels	4.8	6.2	9.7	131.5	153.1	-21.5	1%	8%	27%	0%	3%
9	Cowboys	4.4	6.6	8.9	149.1	171.4	-22.3	1%	7%	22%	0%	5%
10	Titans	3.5	7.5	7.1	107.8	176.4	-68.6	0%	1%	6%	0%	20%
11	Wests Tigers	3.5	7.5	7.1	112.5	155.4	-42.9	0%	1%	7%	0%	18%
12	Raiders	2.9	8.1	5.7	108.9	205.0	-96.1	0%	0%	2%	0%	48%

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Broncos	Away	45%	Hard
4	Bulldogs	Home	74%	Easy
5	Wests Tigers	Away	75%	Easy
6	Titans	Away	74%	Easy
7	Knights	Home	66%	Moderate
8	Eels	Away	73%	Easy
9	Cowboys	Away	74%	Easy
10	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
11	Sharks	Home	68%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Roosters	Home	54%	Hard
4	Dragons	Away	65%	Moderate
5	Sharks	Home	64%	Moderate
6	Raiders	Away	74%	Easy
7	Eels	Home	81%	Easy
8	Knights	Away	46%	Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	71%	Easy
10	Warriors	Away	60%	Moderate
11	Cowboys	Home	82%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Warriors	Home	71%	Easy
4	Eels	Away	65%	Moderate
5	Raiders	Home	82%	Easy
6	Wests Tigers	Home	81%	Easy
7	Roosters	Away	33%	Very Hard
8	Broncos	Home	53%	Hard
9	Sharks	Away	43%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	79%	Easy
11	Dragons	Home	74%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Dragons	Home	67%	Moderate
4	Roosters	Away	25%	Very Hard
5	Titans	Away	58%	Hard
6	Warriors	Home	62%	Moderate
7	Cowboys	Away	57%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	76%	Easy
9	Broncos	Away	28%	Very Hard
10	Sharks	Home	50%	Hard
11	Eels	Away	56%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Cowboys	Home	78%	Easy
4	Wests Tigers	Home	79%	Easy
5	Broncos	Away	35%	Very Hard
6	Dragons	Away	58%	Hard
7	Titans	Home	78%	Easy
8	Warriors	Away	53%	Hard
9	Knights	Home	56%	Hard
10	Bulldogs	Away	49%	Hard
11	Roosters	Away	31%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Knights	Away	28%	Very Hard
4	Titans	Home	69%	Moderate
5	Cowboys	Away	53%	Hard
6	Bulldogs	Away	37%	Very Hard
7	Raiders	Home	72%	Easy
8	Sharks	Home	46%	Hard
9	Dragons	Away	46%	Hard
10	Broncos	Home	39%	Very Hard
11	Wests Tigers	Away	55%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Bulldogs	Away	32%	Very Hard
4	Broncos	Home	34%	Very Hard
5	Eels	Away	47%	Hard
6	Sharks	Home	41%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	50%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	49%	Hard
9	Warriors	Home	53%	Hard
10	Cowboys	Home	64%	Moderate
11	Knights	Away	25%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Raiders	Away	47%	Hard
4	Knights	Home	34%	Very Hard
5	Dragons	Home	52%	Hard
6	Cowboys	Home	59%	Hard
7	Broncos	Away	18%	Very Hard
8	Roosters	Home	26%	Very Hard
9	Titans	Away	43%	Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Home	61%	Moderate
11	Bulldogs	Home	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Sharks	Away	21%	Very Hard
4	Raiders	Home	62%	Moderate
5	Warriors	Home	46%	Hard
6	Eels	Away	40%	Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	42%	Hard
8	Wests Tigers	Away	44%	Hard
9	Roosters	Home	25%	Very Hard
10	Dragons	Away	35%	Very Hard
11	Broncos	Away	17%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Wests Tigers	Away	43%	Hard
4	Warriors	Away	30%	Very Hard
5	Bulldogs	Home	41%	Hard
6	Roosters	Home	25%	Very Hard
7	Sharks	Away	21%	Very Hard
8	Dragons	Home	50%	Hard
9	Eels	Home	56%	Hard
10	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard
11	Raiders	Home	62%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Titans	Home	56%	Hard
4	Sharks	Away	20%	Very Hard
5	Roosters	Home	24%	Very Hard
6	Knights	Away	18%	Very Hard
7	Dragons	Home	49%	Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	55%	Hard
9	Raiders	Away	44%	Hard
10	Eels	Away	38%	Very Hard
11	Warriors	Home	44%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Eels	Home	52%	Hard
4	Cowboys	Away	37%	Very Hard
5	Knights	Away	17%	Very Hard
6	Broncos	Home	25%	Very Hard
7	Warriors	Away	27%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	23%	Very Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Home	55%	Hard
10	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
11	Titans	Away	37%	Very Hard

Round 3 Predictions (54 total matches across 9 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Raiders	1384	Eels	1427	52%
Bulldogs	1531	Dragons	1465	67%
Sharks	1582	Cowboys	1418	78%
Wests Tigers	1401	Titans	1414	56%
Broncos	1630	Roosters	1657	54%
Knights	1596	Warriors	1497	71%

Round 1 of 9 (6 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 9 games remaining Expected: 6.4 wins 71% win rate

Broncos 9 games remaining Expected: 6.0 wins 67% win rate

Knights 9 games remaining Expected: 5.9 wins 65% win rate

Bulldogs 9 games remaining Expected: 4.9 wins 54% win rate

Sharks 9 games remaining Expected: 5.2 wins 58% win rate

Warriors 9 games remaining Expected: 4.5 wins 50% win rate

Dragons 9 games remaining Expected: 4.0 wins 44% win rate

Eels 9 games remaining Expected: 3.9 wins 43% win rate

Cowboys 9 games remaining Expected: 3.4 wins 37% win rate

Titans 9 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 39% win rate

Wests Tigers 9 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 39% win rate

Raiders 9 games remaining Expected: 2.9 wins 32% win rate

Round 3 Predictions (54 total matches across 9 rounds)