Season Simulation

Simulation Details
Competition:
Telstra Premiership
Season:
2025
Run Date:
Jul 19, 2025 21:25
Current Round:
Round 20
Iterations:
1000
Parameters
Elo Ratings:
Enabled
Home Advantage:
0.57
Predicted Final Ladder
Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

  • Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
  • Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
  • Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
  • Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
  • Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos Team W L D Pts PF PA Diff Top 2 % Top 4 % Finals % 🥇 % 🏆 % 🥄 %
1 Raiders 18.6 5.4 0.0 45.1 612.0 488.0 124.0 87% 99% 100% 47% 0% 0%
2 Storm 17.9 6.1 0.0 43.8 724.6 475.4 249.2 82% 98% 99% 45% 0% 0%
3 Bulldogs 16.3 7.7 0.0 40.7 541.9 440.8 101.2 20% 81% 99% 6% 0% 0%
4 Warriors 15.9 8.1 0.0 39.8 518.5 474.1 44.4 7% 65% 98% 0% 0% 0%
5 Panthers 13.8 9.2 1.0 36.5 536.8 472.8 64.0 0% 20% 95% 0% 0% 0%
6 Sharks 14.2 9.8 0.0 36.5 538.4 498.7 39.7 0% 13% 92% 0% 0% 0%
7 Broncos 13.8 10.2 0.0 35.6 598.3 513.0 85.2 0% 16% 91% 0% 0% 0%
8 Dolphins 12.7 11.3 0.0 33.4 683.0 503.4 179.6 0% 2% 74% 0% 0% 0%
9 Sea Eagles 11.7 12.3 0.0 31.4 555.7 502.7 53.0 0% 1% 30% 0% 0% 0%
10 Roosters 11.5 12.5 0.0 30.9 572.2 564.9 7.3 0% 0% 15% 0% 0% 0%
11 Cowboys 8.8 14.2 1.0 26.6 470.7 636.5 -165.7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
12 Dragons 8.7 15.3 0.0 25.5 503.5 578.5 -75.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
13 Knights 8.4 15.6 0.0 24.7 351.0 453.2 -102.2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%
14 Wests Tigers 8.4 15.6 0.0 24.7 445.1 564.8 -119.7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5%
15 Rabbitohs 8.1 15.9 0.0 24.3 403.9 566.0 -162.2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12%
16 Eels 7.7 16.3 0.0 23.5 419.5 563.9 -144.3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 13%
17 Titans 6.5 17.5 0.0 21.0 449.4 627.8 -178.5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 61%
Finals Bracket Preview
Based on current average ladder positions
Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals
1st Qualifying Final
Raiders (1st) vs Warriors (4th)
Home: Raiders
Raiders: 0% to win championship
Warriors: 0% to win championship
2nd Qualifying Final
Storm (2nd) vs Bulldogs (3rd)
Home: Storm
Storm: 0% to win championship
Bulldogs: 0% to win championship
1st Elimination Final
Panthers (5th) vs Dolphins (8th)
Home: Panthers
Panthers: 0% to win championship
Dolphins: 0% to win championship
2nd Elimination Final
Sharks (6th) vs Broncos (7th)
Home: Sharks
Sharks: 0% to win championship
Broncos: 0% to win championship
Week 2 - Semi Finals
1st Semi Final
Warriors vs Panthers
Home: Warriors
Most likely based on championship odds
2nd Semi Final
Bulldogs vs Sharks
Home: Bulldogs
Most likely based on championship odds
Week 3 - Preliminary Finals
1st Preliminary Final
Raiders vs Bulldogs
Home: Raiders
Most likely progression
2nd Preliminary Final
Storm vs Panthers
Home: Storm
Most likely progression
Week 4 - Grand Final
🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆
Most Likely Grand Final
Raiders vs Storm
0% to win 0% to win
Neutral Venue
All Championship Contenders
How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.
Ladder Position Distribution
Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

No position distribution data available for this simulation.