Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Jul 19, 2025 11:35
Current Round:: Round 2
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points and finals simulation)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes, final ladder positions, and finals outcomes:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Finals simulation: The complete NRL finals series (weeks 1-4) is simulated for each iteration, with the Grand Final played at a neutral venue
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The 🥇% shows minor premiership (1st place) probability, 🏆% shows Grand Final winner probability, and Finals% shows chance of making the top 8. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🏆 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	8.4	2.6	16.7	254.9	188.7	66.3	67%	90%	98%	40%	0%	0%
2	Broncos	8.1	2.9	16.1	316.0	228.8	87.2	65%	90%	98%	38%	0%	0%
3	Bulldogs	6.9	4.1	13.9	208.4	184.4	24.1	20%	55%	85%	7%	0%	0%
4	Knights	6.9	4.1	13.8	210.3	182.5	27.7	18%	60%	86%	5%	0%	0%
5	Sharks	6.3	4.7	12.6	305.5	245.9	59.6	20%	53%	81%	7%	0%	0%
6	Warriors	5.5	5.5	10.9	151.1	162.2	-11.1	3%	17%	46%	0%	0%	1%
7	Eels	4.9	6.1	9.9	132.6	152.9	-20.3	1%	9%	30%	0%	0%	2%
8	Dragons	4.9	6.1	9.8	221.5	222.7	-1.2	2%	14%	38%	0%	0%	2%
9	Cowboys	4.3	6.7	8.7	148.8	171.9	-23.0	0%	5%	20%	0%	0%	5%
10	Titans	3.5	7.5	7.1	105.7	174.1	-68.5	0%	0%	5%	0%	0%	20%
11	Wests Tigers	3.5	7.5	7.1	113.0	156.3	-43.2	0%	0%	6%	0%	0%	15%
12	Raiders	2.8	8.2	5.6	107.5	205.1	-97.5	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	51%

Finals Bracket Preview

Based on current average ladder positions

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

1st Qualifying Final

Roosters (1st) vs Knights (4th)

Home: Roosters

Roosters: 0% to win championship
Knights: 0% to win championship

2nd Qualifying Final

Broncos (2nd) vs Bulldogs (3rd)

Home: Broncos

Broncos: 0% to win championship
Bulldogs: 0% to win championship

1st Elimination Final

Sharks (5th) vs Dragons (8th)

Home: Sharks

Sharks: 0% to win championship
Dragons: 0% to win championship

2nd Elimination Final

Warriors (6th) vs Eels (7th)

Home: Warriors

Warriors: 0% to win championship
Eels: 0% to win championship

Week 2 - Semi Finals

1st Semi Final

Knights vs Sharks

Home: Knights

Most likely based on championship odds

2nd Semi Final

Bulldogs vs Warriors

Home: Bulldogs

Most likely based on championship odds

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

1st Preliminary Final

Roosters vs Bulldogs

Home: Roosters

Most likely progression

2nd Preliminary Final

Broncos vs Knights

Home: Broncos

Most likely progression

Week 4 - Grand Final

🏆 GRAND FINAL 🏆

Most Likely Grand Final

Roosters vs Broncos

0% to win 0% to win

Neutral Venue

All Championship Contenders

How to read this: The "Most Likely" progression shows which teams would advance if the stronger team (higher championship probability) wins each match. The championship percentages show how often each team actually won the Grand Final across all 1000 simulated finals series.

Note: The NRL finals format means the two strongest teams don't always meet in the Grand Final - lower seeds face tougher paths through elimination and semi-finals.

Ladder Position Distribution

Probability of each team finishing in each position across 1000 simulations

No position distribution data available for this simulation.

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Broncos	Away	45%	Hard
4	Bulldogs	Home	74%	Easy
5	Wests Tigers	Away	75%	Easy
6	Titans	Away	74%	Easy
7	Knights	Home	66%	Moderate
8	Eels	Away	73%	Easy
9	Cowboys	Away	74%	Easy
10	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
11	Sharks	Home	68%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Roosters	Home	54%	Hard
4	Dragons	Away	65%	Moderate
5	Sharks	Home	64%	Moderate
6	Raiders	Away	74%	Easy
7	Eels	Home	81%	Easy
8	Knights	Away	46%	Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	71%	Easy
10	Warriors	Away	60%	Moderate
11	Cowboys	Home	82%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Dragons	Home	67%	Moderate
4	Roosters	Away	25%	Very Hard
5	Titans	Away	58%	Hard
6	Warriors	Home	62%	Moderate
7	Cowboys	Away	57%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	76%	Easy
9	Broncos	Away	28%	Very Hard
10	Sharks	Home	50%	Hard
11	Eels	Away	56%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Warriors	Home	71%	Easy
4	Eels	Away	65%	Moderate
5	Raiders	Home	82%	Easy
6	Wests Tigers	Home	81%	Easy
7	Roosters	Away	33%	Very Hard
8	Broncos	Home	53%	Hard
9	Sharks	Away	43%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	79%	Easy
11	Dragons	Home	74%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Cowboys	Home	78%	Easy
4	Wests Tigers	Home	79%	Easy
5	Broncos	Away	35%	Very Hard
6	Dragons	Away	58%	Hard
7	Titans	Home	78%	Easy
8	Warriors	Away	53%	Hard
9	Knights	Home	56%	Hard
10	Bulldogs	Away	49%	Hard
11	Roosters	Away	31%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Knights	Away	28%	Very Hard
4	Titans	Home	69%	Moderate
5	Cowboys	Away	53%	Hard
6	Bulldogs	Away	37%	Very Hard
7	Raiders	Home	72%	Easy
8	Sharks	Home	46%	Hard
9	Dragons	Away	46%	Hard
10	Broncos	Home	39%	Very Hard
11	Wests Tigers	Away	55%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Raiders	Away	47%	Hard
4	Knights	Home	34%	Very Hard
5	Dragons	Home	52%	Hard
6	Cowboys	Home	59%	Hard
7	Broncos	Away	18%	Very Hard
8	Roosters	Home	26%	Very Hard
9	Titans	Away	43%	Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Home	61%	Moderate
11	Bulldogs	Home	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Bulldogs	Away	32%	Very Hard
4	Broncos	Home	34%	Very Hard
5	Eels	Away	47%	Hard
6	Sharks	Home	41%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	50%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	49%	Hard
9	Warriors	Home	53%	Hard
10	Cowboys	Home	64%	Moderate
11	Knights	Away	25%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Sharks	Away	21%	Very Hard
4	Raiders	Home	62%	Moderate
5	Warriors	Home	46%	Hard
6	Eels	Away	40%	Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	42%	Hard
8	Wests Tigers	Away	44%	Hard
9	Roosters	Home	25%	Very Hard
10	Dragons	Away	35%	Very Hard
11	Broncos	Away	17%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Wests Tigers	Away	43%	Hard
4	Warriors	Away	30%	Very Hard
5	Bulldogs	Home	41%	Hard
6	Roosters	Home	25%	Very Hard
7	Sharks	Away	21%	Very Hard
8	Dragons	Home	50%	Hard
9	Eels	Home	56%	Hard
10	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard
11	Raiders	Home	62%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Titans	Home	56%	Hard
4	Sharks	Away	20%	Very Hard
5	Roosters	Home	24%	Very Hard
6	Knights	Away	18%	Very Hard
7	Dragons	Home	49%	Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	55%	Hard
9	Raiders	Away	44%	Hard
10	Eels	Away	38%	Very Hard
11	Warriors	Home	44%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Eels	Home	52%	Hard
4	Cowboys	Away	37%	Very Hard
5	Knights	Away	17%	Very Hard
6	Broncos	Home	25%	Very Hard
7	Warriors	Away	27%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	23%	Very Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Home	55%	Hard
10	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
11	Titans	Away	37%	Very Hard

Round 4 Predictions (54 total matches across 9 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Warriors	1497	Titans	1414	69%
Roosters	1657	Bulldogs	1531	74%
Cowboys	1418	Raiders	1384	62%
Eels	1427	Knights	1596	34%
Dragons	1465	Broncos	1630	34%
Sharks	1582	Wests Tigers	1401	79%

Round 2 of 9 (6 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Finals Bracket Preview

Week 1 - Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Week 2 - Semi Finals

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals

Week 4 - Grand Final

Most Likely Grand Final

All Championship Contenders

Ladder Position Distribution

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 9 games remaining Expected: 6.4 wins 71% win rate

Broncos 9 games remaining Expected: 6.0 wins 67% win rate

Bulldogs 9 games remaining Expected: 4.9 wins 54% win rate

Knights 9 games remaining Expected: 5.9 wins 65% win rate

Sharks 9 games remaining Expected: 5.2 wins 58% win rate

Warriors 9 games remaining Expected: 4.5 wins 50% win rate

Eels 9 games remaining Expected: 3.9 wins 43% win rate

Dragons 9 games remaining Expected: 4.0 wins 44% win rate

Cowboys 9 games remaining Expected: 3.4 wins 37% win rate

Titans 9 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 39% win rate

Wests Tigers 9 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 39% win rate

Raiders 9 games remaining Expected: 2.9 wins 32% win rate

Round 4 Predictions (54 total matches across 9 rounds)