Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Women's Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Jul 19, 2025 11:35
Current Round:: Round 2
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes and final ladder positions:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The percentages show how often each team achieved that position across all simulations. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🥄 %
1	Roosters	8.4	2.6	16.7	254.9	188.7	66.3	67%	90%	98%	40%	0%
2	Broncos	8.1	2.9	16.1	316.0	228.8	87.2	65%	90%	98%	38%	0%
3	Bulldogs	6.9	4.1	13.9	208.4	184.4	24.1	20%	55%	85%	7%	0%
4	Knights	6.9	4.1	13.8	210.3	182.5	27.7	18%	60%	86%	5%	0%
5	Sharks	6.3	4.7	12.6	305.5	245.9	59.6	20%	53%	81%	7%	0%
6	Warriors	5.5	5.5	10.9	151.1	162.2	-11.1	3%	17%	46%	0%	1%
7	Eels	4.9	6.1	9.9	132.6	152.9	-20.3	1%	9%	30%	0%	2%
8	Dragons	4.9	6.1	9.8	221.5	222.7	-1.2	2%	14%	38%	0%	2%
9	Cowboys	4.3	6.7	8.7	148.8	171.9	-23.0	0%	5%	20%	0%	5%
10	Titans	3.5	7.5	7.1	105.7	174.1	-68.5	0%	0%	5%	0%	20%
11	Wests Tigers	3.5	7.5	7.1	113.0	156.3	-43.2	0%	0%	6%	0%	15%
12	Raiders	2.8	8.2	5.6	107.5	205.1	-97.5	0%	0%	1%	0%	51%

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Broncos	Away	45%	Hard
4	Bulldogs	Home	74%	Easy
5	Wests Tigers	Away	75%	Easy
6	Titans	Away	74%	Easy
7	Knights	Home	66%	Moderate
8	Eels	Away	73%	Easy
9	Cowboys	Away	74%	Easy
10	Raiders	Home	85%	Easy
11	Sharks	Home	68%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Roosters	Home	54%	Hard
4	Dragons	Away	65%	Moderate
5	Sharks	Home	64%	Moderate
6	Raiders	Away	74%	Easy
7	Eels	Home	81%	Easy
8	Knights	Away	46%	Hard
9	Bulldogs	Home	71%	Easy
10	Warriors	Away	60%	Moderate
11	Cowboys	Home	82%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Dragons	Home	67%	Moderate
4	Roosters	Away	25%	Very Hard
5	Titans	Away	58%	Hard
6	Warriors	Home	62%	Moderate
7	Cowboys	Away	57%	Hard
8	Raiders	Home	76%	Easy
9	Broncos	Away	28%	Very Hard
10	Sharks	Home	50%	Hard
11	Eels	Away	56%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Warriors	Home	71%	Easy
4	Eels	Away	65%	Moderate
5	Raiders	Home	82%	Easy
6	Wests Tigers	Home	81%	Easy
7	Roosters	Away	33%	Very Hard
8	Broncos	Home	53%	Hard
9	Sharks	Away	43%	Hard
10	Titans	Home	79%	Easy
11	Dragons	Home	74%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Cowboys	Home	78%	Easy
4	Wests Tigers	Home	79%	Easy
5	Broncos	Away	35%	Very Hard
6	Dragons	Away	58%	Hard
7	Titans	Home	78%	Easy
8	Warriors	Away	53%	Hard
9	Knights	Home	56%	Hard
10	Bulldogs	Away	49%	Hard
11	Roosters	Away	31%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Knights	Away	28%	Very Hard
4	Titans	Home	69%	Moderate
5	Cowboys	Away	53%	Hard
6	Bulldogs	Away	37%	Very Hard
7	Raiders	Home	72%	Easy
8	Sharks	Home	46%	Hard
9	Dragons	Away	46%	Hard
10	Broncos	Home	39%	Very Hard
11	Wests Tigers	Away	55%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Raiders	Away	47%	Hard
4	Knights	Home	34%	Very Hard
5	Dragons	Home	52%	Hard
6	Cowboys	Home	59%	Hard
7	Broncos	Away	18%	Very Hard
8	Roosters	Home	26%	Very Hard
9	Titans	Away	43%	Hard
10	Wests Tigers	Home	61%	Moderate
11	Bulldogs	Home	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Bulldogs	Away	32%	Very Hard
4	Broncos	Home	34%	Very Hard
5	Eels	Away	47%	Hard
6	Sharks	Home	41%	Hard
7	Wests Tigers	Away	50%	Hard
8	Titans	Away	49%	Hard
9	Warriors	Home	53%	Hard
10	Cowboys	Home	64%	Moderate
11	Knights	Away	25%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Sharks	Away	21%	Very Hard
4	Raiders	Home	62%	Moderate
5	Warriors	Home	46%	Hard
6	Eels	Away	40%	Hard
7	Bulldogs	Home	42%	Hard
8	Wests Tigers	Away	44%	Hard
9	Roosters	Home	25%	Very Hard
10	Dragons	Away	35%	Very Hard
11	Broncos	Away	17%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Wests Tigers	Away	43%	Hard
4	Warriors	Away	30%	Very Hard
5	Bulldogs	Home	41%	Hard
6	Roosters	Home	25%	Very Hard
7	Sharks	Away	21%	Very Hard
8	Dragons	Home	50%	Hard
9	Eels	Home	56%	Hard
10	Knights	Away	20%	Very Hard
11	Raiders	Home	62%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Titans	Home	56%	Hard
4	Sharks	Away	20%	Very Hard
5	Roosters	Home	24%	Very Hard
6	Knights	Away	18%	Very Hard
7	Dragons	Home	49%	Hard
8	Cowboys	Home	55%	Hard
9	Raiders	Away	44%	Hard
10	Eels	Away	38%	Very Hard
11	Warriors	Home	44%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
3	Eels	Home	52%	Hard
4	Cowboys	Away	37%	Very Hard
5	Knights	Away	17%	Very Hard
6	Broncos	Home	25%	Very Hard
7	Warriors	Away	27%	Very Hard
8	Bulldogs	Away	23%	Very Hard
9	Wests Tigers	Home	55%	Hard
10	Roosters	Away	15%	Very Hard
11	Titans	Away	37%	Very Hard

Round 3 Predictions (54 total matches across 9 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Raiders	1384	Eels	1427	52%
Bulldogs	1531	Dragons	1465	67%
Sharks	1582	Cowboys	1418	78%
Wests Tigers	1401	Titans	1414	56%
Broncos	1630	Roosters	1657	54%
Knights	1596	Warriors	1497	71%

Round 1 of 9 (6 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Roosters 9 games remaining Expected: 6.4 wins 71% win rate

Broncos 9 games remaining Expected: 6.0 wins 67% win rate

Bulldogs 9 games remaining Expected: 4.9 wins 54% win rate

Knights 9 games remaining Expected: 5.9 wins 65% win rate

Sharks 9 games remaining Expected: 5.2 wins 58% win rate

Warriors 9 games remaining Expected: 4.5 wins 50% win rate

Eels 9 games remaining Expected: 3.9 wins 43% win rate

Dragons 9 games remaining Expected: 4.0 wins 44% win rate

Cowboys 9 games remaining Expected: 3.4 wins 37% win rate

Titans 9 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 39% win rate

Wests Tigers 9 games remaining Expected: 3.5 wins 39% win rate

Raiders 9 games remaining Expected: 2.9 wins 32% win rate

Round 3 Predictions (54 total matches across 9 rounds)