Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Competition:: Telstra Premiership
Season:: 2025
Run Date:: Jul 19, 2025 11:33
Current Round:: Round 20
Iterations:: 1000

Parameters

Elo Ratings:: Enabled
Home Advantage:: 0.57

Predicted Final Ladder

Average outcome across 1000 simulations (includes bye rounds with 2 points)

This simulation uses Elo ratings to predict match outcomes and final ladder positions:

Historical baseline: Each team starts with an Elo rating based on their performance from 2020-2024, with a 2/3 carry-over from the previous season (following FiveThirtyEight's NFL methodology)
Current season updates: Ratings are adjusted after each completed match based on results and margin of victory
Match predictions: Higher Elo ratings indicate stronger teams, with home advantage factored in (0.57 points)
Monte Carlo simulation: The remaining season is simulated 1000 times to calculate probability distributions

The percentages show how often each team achieved that position across all simulations. For example, a 65% finals chance means that team made finals in 65% of the 1000 simulated seasons.

Pos	Team	W	L	D	Pts	PF	PA	Diff	Top 2 %	Top 4 %	Finals %	🥇 %	🥄 %
1	Raiders	18.5	5.5	0.0	45.0	612.8	489.4	123.3	87%	99%	100%	51%	0%
2	Storm	17.8	6.2	0.0	43.6	723.1	475.7	247.4	81%	98%	100%	42%	0%
3	Bulldogs	16.3	7.7	0.0	40.6	540.8	439.8	101.0	19%	82%	99%	4%	0%
4	Warriors	15.9	8.1	0.0	39.9	517.2	472.0	45.2	9%	66%	98%	1%	0%
5	Panthers	13.8	9.2	1.0	36.7	538.1	471.9	66.2	1%	20%	95%	0%	0%
6	Sharks	14.2	9.8	0.0	36.4	537.0	498.2	38.8	0%	13%	93%	0%	0%
7	Broncos	13.9	10.1	0.0	35.8	599.1	513.0	86.2	0%	15%	90%	0%	0%
8	Dolphins	12.7	11.3	0.0	33.4	683.6	503.9	179.8	0%	2%	75%	0%	0%
9	Sea Eagles	11.7	12.3	0.0	31.4	554.7	501.5	53.2	0%	0%	30%	0%	0%
10	Roosters	11.4	12.6	0.0	30.8	571.1	564.3	6.8	0%	0%	15%	0%	0%
11	Cowboys	8.8	14.2	1.0	26.5	469.0	635.7	-166.7	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
12	Dragons	8.8	15.2	0.0	25.6	503.3	578.1	-74.8	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
13	Wests Tigers	8.4	15.6	0.0	24.9	446.5	564.7	-118.1	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
14	Knights	8.4	15.6	0.0	24.8	350.7	452.7	-102.0	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
15	Rabbitohs	8.2	15.8	0.0	24.4	403.9	565.1	-161.1	0%	0%	0%	0%	12%
16	Eels	7.7	16.3	0.0	23.4	419.0	564.3	-145.2	0%	0%	0%	0%	14%
17	Titans	6.4	17.6	0.0	20.9	450.0	629.7	-179.7	0%	0%	0%	0%	63%

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Shows each team's remaining matches with win probabilities

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Eels	Home	81%	Easy
21	Knights	Home	78%	Easy
22	Dragons	Away	66%	Moderate
23	Sea Eagles	Home	66%	Moderate
25	Panthers	Away	34%	Very Hard
26	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
27	Dolphins	Away	37%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Sea Eagles	Home	81%	Easy
21	Roosters	Away	64%	Moderate
22	Eels	Away	83%	Easy
23	Broncos	Home	78%	Easy
24	Panthers	Away	53%	Hard
25	Bulldogs	Home	78%	Easy
26	Roosters	Home	78%	Easy
27	Broncos	Away	65%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Dragons	Home	76%	Easy
21	Sea Eagles	Home	62%	Moderate
22	Wests Tigers	Away	71%	Easy
23	Warriors	Home	60%	Moderate
24	Roosters	Away	41%	Hard
25	Storm	Away	21%	Very Hard
26	Panthers	Home	46%	Hard
27	Sharks	Home	56%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Knights	Away	59%	Hard
21	Titans	Home	82%	Easy
22	Dolphins	Home	46%	Hard
23	Bulldogs	Away	39%	Very Hard
24	Dragons	Home	75%	Easy
25	Titans	Away	71%	Easy
26	Eels	Home	77%	Easy
27	Sea Eagles	Away	44%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Wests Tigers	Home	85%	Easy
22	Titans	Away	81%	Easy
23	Knights	Away	72%	Easy
24	Storm	Home	46%	Hard
25	Raiders	Home	65%	Moderate
26	Bulldogs	Away	53%	Hard
27	Dragons	Away	73%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Rabbitohs	Away	70%	Easy
22	Cowboys	Home	77%	Easy
23	Dragons	Away	64%	Moderate
24	Titans	Home	84%	Easy
26	Knights	Home	76%	Easy
27	Bulldogs	Away	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Eels	Home	78%	Easy
22	Rabbitohs	Home	80%	Easy
23	Storm	Away	21%	Very Hard
24	Dolphins	Home	48%	Hard
25	Knights	Away	60%	Moderate
26	Cowboys	Away	61%	Moderate
27	Storm	Home	34%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
22	Warriors	Away	53%	Hard
23	Roosters	Home	66%	Moderate
24	Broncos	Away	51%	Hard
25	Sea Eagles	Away	55%	Hard
26	Titans	Home	85%	Easy
27	Raiders	Home	62%	Moderate

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Storm	Away	18%	Very Hard
21	Bulldogs	Away	37%	Very Hard
22	Roosters	Home	53%	Hard
23	Raiders	Away	33%	Very Hard
24	Wests Tigers	Away	67%	Moderate
25	Dolphins	Home	44%	Hard
26	Dragons	Away	58%	Hard
27	Warriors	Home	55%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Storm	Home	35%	Very Hard
22	Sea Eagles	Away	46%	Hard
23	Dolphins	Away	33%	Very Hard
24	Bulldogs	Home	58%	Hard
25	Eels	Away	66%	Moderate
26	Storm	Away	21%	Very Hard
27	Rabbitohs	Home	81%	Easy

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Dragons	Home	59%	Hard
22	Sharks	Away	22%	Very Hard
23	Eels	Away	46%	Hard
24	Knights	Home	57%	Hard
25	Wests Tigers	Away	52%	Hard
26	Broncos	Home	38%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Bulldogs	Away	23%	Very Hard
21	Cowboys	Away	40%	Hard
22	Raiders	Home	33%	Very Hard
23	Sharks	Home	35%	Very Hard
24	Warriors	Away	24%	Very Hard
25	Rabbitohs	Away	48%	Hard
26	Sea Eagles	Home	41%	Hard
27	Panthers	Home	26%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Titans	Home	60%	Moderate
21	Panthers	Away	15%	Very Hard
22	Bulldogs	Home	28%	Very Hard
24	Sea Eagles	Home	32%	Very Hard
25	Cowboys	Home	47%	Hard
26	Raiders	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Titans	Away	43%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Warriors	Home	40%	Hard
21	Raiders	Away	21%	Very Hard
23	Panthers	Home	27%	Very Hard
24	Cowboys	Away	42%	Hard
25	Broncos	Home	39%	Very Hard
26	Sharks	Away	23%	Very Hard
27	Eels	Away	46%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
21	Sharks	Home	29%	Very Hard
22	Broncos	Away	19%	Very Hard
23	Titans	Away	46%	Hard
24	Eels	Home	54%	Hard
25	Dragons	Home	51%	Hard
27	Roosters	Away	18%	Very Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Raiders	Away	18%	Very Hard
21	Broncos	Away	21%	Very Hard
22	Storm	Home	16%	Very Hard
23	Cowboys	Home	53%	Hard
24	Rabbitohs	Away	45%	Hard
25	Roosters	Home	33%	Very Hard
26	Warriors	Away	22%	Very Hard
27	Knights	Home	53%	Hard

Round	Opponent	Venue	Win %	Difficulty
20	Wests Tigers	Away	39%	Very Hard
21	Warriors	Away	17%	Very Hard
22	Panthers	Home	18%	Very Hard
23	Rabbitohs	Home	53%	Hard
24	Sharks	Away	15%	Very Hard
25	Warriors	Home	28%	Very Hard
26	Dolphins	Away	15%	Very Hard
27	Wests Tigers	Home	56%	Hard

Round 20 Predictions (61 total matches across 8 rounds)

Home Team	Home Elo	Away Team	Away Elo	Home Win %
Raiders	1585	Eels	1382	81%
Bulldogs	1556	Dragons	1406	76%
Storm	1721	Sea Eagles	1525	81%
Wests Tigers	1339	Titans	1325	60%
Knights	1416	Warriors	1540	40%

Round 1 of 8 (5 matches this round)

Season Simulation

Simulation Details

Parameters

Predicted Final Ladder

Remaining Fixtures by Team

Raiders 7 games remaining Expected: 4.5 wins 64% win rate

Storm 8 games remaining Expected: 5.8 wins 73% win rate

Bulldogs 8 games remaining Expected: 4.4 wins 55% win rate

Warriors 8 games remaining Expected: 5.0 wins 62% win rate

Panthers 7 games remaining Expected: 4.8 wins 68% win rate

Sharks 6 games remaining Expected: 4.2 wins 70% win rate

Broncos 7 games remaining Expected: 3.8 wins 55% win rate

Dolphins 6 games remaining Expected: 3.8 wins 63% win rate

Sea Eagles 8 games remaining Expected: 3.7 wins 46% win rate

Roosters 7 games remaining Expected: 3.4 wins 49% win rate

Cowboys 6 games remaining Expected: 2.8 wins 46% win rate

Dragons 8 games remaining Expected: 2.7 wins 34% win rate

Wests Tigers 7 games remaining Expected: 2.4 wins 35% win rate

Knights 7 games remaining Expected: 2.4 wins 34% win rate

Rabbitohs 6 games remaining Expected: 2.2 wins 37% win rate

Eels 8 games remaining Expected: 2.6 wins 33% win rate

Titans 8 games remaining Expected: 2.4 wins 31% win rate

Round 20 Predictions (61 total matches across 8 rounds)